Sunday, October 16, 2022

2022 NFL Week 6 Kayfabe Rankings

I think we can have this discussion now.

Because, in kayfabe, just six weeks in, I think it's clear we have a kayfabe Super Bowl:  Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills.

Each is the best team in their conference, and, barring rigging, it does not appear that it is particularly close.

Scott Hanson made a very interesting point in starting Week 6:  All eight divisions, through 5 full weeks of play, had outright leaders.  Only three won:  The Bills, Eagles, and Vikings.  The Ravens, Chiefs, Bucs and 49ers all lost.

So let's take a look, knowing that we have a clear #1 in each conference, at the current chaos:

AFC East:  Buffalo (5-1) is a game up on the Jets (4-2), gets it's bye week next week then a free win over the Packers in two weeks before getting the first meeting with the Jets.

AFC North:  Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-3 (Baltimore 1-0 with the North, Cincy 0-2 for that tiebreaker).

AFC South:  Titans are 3-2 with their bye week this week.  Indianapolis is 3-2-1.

AFC West:  Kansas City is 4-2, which the Chargers can join, but KC won the first meeting in Week 2.

So the division seeds are also outright:  Buffalo, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Baltimore in that order.

Wild Cards:  Jets are 4-2, Colts are 3-2-1, and then Monday night determines whether the Chargers join the Jets, in which case the Chargers would become Wild Card #1, the Jets #2, and the Colts #3.  Otherwise, the Jets are #1, the Colts #2, and a 3-3 mess ensues.

In that case:  The tie would be between the Dolphins, Patriots, Bengals, and Chargers.  The Dolphins would win the tiebreak with the Patriots, to be done first, because of head-to-head win in meeting #1.  The Dolphins have beaten the Bengals and will play the Chargers eventually.

Conference record:  MIA 3-2, CIN 2-2, LAC with a loss Monday night 3-3, Miami would have the #3 Wild Card.

So the AFC:
  1. BUF (5-1)
  2. KC (4-2)
  3. TEN (3-2)
  4. BAL (3-3, Divisional tiebreaker over CIN)
If LAC wins tomorrow night:

     5.  LAC (4-2, Conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
     6.  NYJ (4-2, loses Conference record tiebreaker to LAC)
     7.  IND (3-2-1)

If LAC loses tomorrow night:

    5.  NYJ  (4-2)
    6.  IND (3-2-1)
    7.  MIA (3-3, see above for multi-tiered tiebreaker)

NFC:

NFC East:  Philadelphia (6-0) has a one-game lead over the Giants (5-1) and won't play them until mid-December, and they play twice in the last five weeks.

NFC North:  Minnesota (5-1) is 2 1/2 clear of a rapidly-fading Packer (3-3) team.

NFC South:  Tampa Bay and Atlanta are 3-3, and that Roughing The Passer rig-job has Tampa in front in the division.

NFC West:  San Francisco, Seattle, and the Rams are all 3-3.  San Francisco has beaten both of the other two already in their first meetings, so they lead the division.

Philadelphia is the #1, Minnesota the 2, Tampa and San Francisco have to break their tie.  They will play December 11.  So the conference records:  Tampa 3-1 vs. SF 3-2, so Tampa, at 3-3, is the current #3 seed in the conference, even though two NFC East teams are still better than them in the records.

Wild Cards:  #1 is the Giants at 5-1.  #2 is the Cowboys at 4-2.

#3 is a 3-3 mess.  You have Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle and the Rams.  Break the Seattle/LA tie first.  They will play twice in the last seven weeks.  Both teams are 1-1 in the division (any divisional tiebreaker, even a wildcard tiebreak, is done under division rules), common games gives LA the nod).

So it's Green Bay, Atlanta, and LA Rams.  The Rams win that tiebreaker by conference record (LAR 3-2, GB 2-2, ATL 2-3).

So the NFC is:
  1. PHI (6-0)
  2. MIN (5-1)
  3. TB (3-3, Conference record over SF)
  4. SF (3-3, loses Conference record tiebreak with TB)
  5. NYG (5-1)
  6. DAL (4-2)
  7. LAR (3-3, see above for multi-tiered tiebreaker)

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