Because, in kayfabe, just six weeks in, I think it's clear we have a kayfabe Super Bowl: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills.
Each is the best team in their conference, and, barring rigging, it does not appear that it is particularly close.
Scott Hanson made a very interesting point in starting Week 6: All eight divisions, through 5 full weeks of play, had outright leaders. Only three won: The Bills, Eagles, and Vikings. The Ravens, Chiefs, Bucs and 49ers all lost.
So let's take a look, knowing that we have a clear #1 in each conference, at the current chaos:
AFC East: Buffalo (5-1) is a game up on the Jets (4-2), gets it's bye week next week then a free win over the Packers in two weeks before getting the first meeting with the Jets.
AFC North: Baltimore and Cincinnati are 3-3 (Baltimore 1-0 with the North, Cincy 0-2 for that tiebreaker).
AFC South: Titans are 3-2 with their bye week this week. Indianapolis is 3-2-1.
AFC West: Kansas City is 4-2, which the Chargers can join, but KC won the first meeting in Week 2.
So the division seeds are also outright: Buffalo, Kansas City, Tennessee, and Baltimore in that order.
Wild Cards: Jets are 4-2, Colts are 3-2-1, and then Monday night determines whether the Chargers join the Jets, in which case the Chargers would become Wild Card #1, the Jets #2, and the Colts #3. Otherwise, the Jets are #1, the Colts #2, and a 3-3 mess ensues.
In that case: The tie would be between the Dolphins, Patriots, Bengals, and Chargers. The Dolphins would win the tiebreak with the Patriots, to be done first, because of head-to-head win in meeting #1. The Dolphins have beaten the Bengals and will play the Chargers eventually.
Conference record: MIA 3-2, CIN 2-2, LAC with a loss Monday night 3-3, Miami would have the #3 Wild Card.
So the AFC:
- BUF (5-1)
- KC (4-2)
- TEN (3-2)
- BAL (3-3, Divisional tiebreaker over CIN)
If LAC wins tomorrow night:
5. LAC (4-2, Conference record tiebreaker over NYJ)
6. NYJ (4-2, loses Conference record tiebreaker to LAC)
7. IND (3-2-1)
If LAC loses tomorrow night:
5. NYJ (4-2)
6. IND (3-2-1)
7. MIA (3-3, see above for multi-tiered tiebreaker)
NFC:
NFC East: Philadelphia (6-0) has a one-game lead over the Giants (5-1) and won't play them until mid-December, and they play twice in the last five weeks.
NFC North: Minnesota (5-1) is 2 1/2 clear of a rapidly-fading Packer (3-3) team.
NFC South: Tampa Bay and Atlanta are 3-3, and that Roughing The Passer rig-job has Tampa in front in the division.
NFC West: San Francisco, Seattle, and the Rams are all 3-3. San Francisco has beaten both of the other two already in their first meetings, so they lead the division.
Philadelphia is the #1, Minnesota the 2, Tampa and San Francisco have to break their tie. They will play December 11. So the conference records: Tampa 3-1 vs. SF 3-2, so Tampa, at 3-3, is the current #3 seed in the conference, even though two NFC East teams are still better than them in the records.
Wild Cards: #1 is the Giants at 5-1. #2 is the Cowboys at 4-2.
#3 is a 3-3 mess. You have Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle and the Rams. Break the Seattle/LA tie first. They will play twice in the last seven weeks. Both teams are 1-1 in the division (any divisional tiebreaker, even a wildcard tiebreak, is done under division rules), common games gives LA the nod).
So it's Green Bay, Atlanta, and LA Rams. The Rams win that tiebreaker by conference record (LAR 3-2, GB 2-2, ATL 2-3).
So the NFC is:
- PHI (6-0)
- MIN (5-1)
- TB (3-3, Conference record over SF)
- SF (3-3, loses Conference record tiebreak with TB)
- NYG (5-1)
- DAL (4-2)
- LAR (3-3, see above for multi-tiered tiebreaker)
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