Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: The Ratings, and no real surprises here...

From Sports Media Watch:

Overnights are showing Super Bowl LIII to be the lowest-rated Super Bowl in a DECADE.

It is also the fourth straight year the ratings are down for the biggest television event of the year.

44.9 rating, but that's down 5% from last year and 8% from two years ago -- and is the lowest since Cardinals-Steelers ten years ago.

And it appears as if New Orleans may have played a fair factor in it.

New Orleans decided to boycott the game after the Robey-Coleman no-call in the NFC Championship game, and their rating was the lowest that city has ever had for a Super Bowl -- 26.1.

Needless to say, dead last of all the overnighted metered markets.

And Kansas City, also screwed in the AFC title game, went from a 52.2 last year to a 46.4 this year (an 11% drop).

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: OH HO!!!!

Two things:

• Yes, the Goff interception after the PI no-call in the fourth quarter was quite blatant..
• But the NFL has to explain this one to me...  Look at the timestamp....

NFL Network Runs Patriots Championship Commercial Before the Superbowl #SuperBowl #GoPats https://t.co/TtUxjOsPuO pic.twitter.com/gUsMne64lC

— SportsGossip.com (@sportsgossip) February 2, 2019

And another Tweet dated FRIDAY says NFL Network had it going on.  There is no current word as to whether a Rams one ever aired.

EDIT TO ADD in case apologists show up here:  I have zero doubt that a similar commercial was made for the Rams.  I have zero doubt that this commercial was made for the Patriots.  I know that, literally the instant the gun goes off, the push for Super Bowl Champion gear is started.  It's how I found out the Giants had beaten the Patriots for 18-1.

The problem is that it was aired Saturday, and perhaps Friday as well!  There is still no word, past 1 PM on Monday, that such an "error" was made with the Rams Super Bowl gear commercial.

Super Bowl LIII(E), or should we just call it VI? A Right-Wing Goodell Special

If I'm a liberal in a big city right now, especially Los Angeles, I'm getting scared for the next 18 months.

The entire situation in LA may be about to go up, as evidenced by tonight's complete short-circuit of the LA Experiment and Title #6 for the Republican Trumpian Right Wing Propaganda machine out of New England.

To tell you how implausible this whole thing is, some facts:

• The Super Bowl itself is a big-money pro-corporate event.  So it should, then, be no surprise that the Atlanta crowd tonight was HEAVILY pro-New England.  I don't even know how much of it was anti-Rams for the basis of the call two weeks ago, but I do know that, from the rip, the crowd was making it clear they wanted the White Right team to win.
• To show you how much this narrative was pulled completely another direction, pretty much since Shutdown 1.0...  11-5 this year, the first time since 2009 the Patriots lost more than four games.  Also, 3-5 on the road, and all five losses were to teams who did NOT make the playoffs.
• To pull the narrative yet further another direction:  The sixteen points, in a year in which "POINTS!!" ruled much of the narrative, and New England #2 in the AFC in scoring and the Rams #1 in the NFC...  THE LOWEST SCORING SUPER BOWL IN HISTORY. SIXTEEN POINTS.

• Only once in Super Bowl history (Super Bowl VII) has even the winning team had less than 16 points -- Miami had 14, so New England's 13 is also a Super Bowl record.  16 has been matched by the winner twice (Super Bowl IX and the infamous Super Bowl III).
• Brian Tuohy has a potential line of thinking that Sean McVay may have been a participant in this year's rig-job...

Is Todd Gurley this year's Malcolm Butler?

— Brian Tuohy (@TheFixIsInTuohy) February 4, 2019

Gurley did play, but there was significant talk that his knee was not healthy.  McVay said to CBS before the game he was fine -- but he was either lying or something was up.  10 carries, 35 yards.

• Looked like possible magnet-tampering on two different field goal attempts (the Zeurlein make for 3-3 and the Gostkowski miss to keep the game scoreless).
• And another interesting thought by Brian, especially given that Julian Edelman has ties to the TB12 doctor...

Wasn't Edelman suspended for the first 4 games of the year for violating the NFL's PED policy? I guess we shouldn't mention that now, right?

— Brian Tuohy (@TheFixIsInTuohy) February 4, 2019

So what actually happened in the game?

Plenty.  And almost all for New England...

• Should've realized the narrative at 9:14 in the first, when Nickell Robey-Coleman was flagged for helmet on defenseless receiver (the call was correct!) to prevent a 3rd and 18.

Why do I mention this after the fact?  Because if that call was correctly made two weeks ago, it's New Orleans playing New England.

That led to the aforementioned Gostkowski miss, which you should've seen coming when CBS mentioned the perfect record of field-goal kickers in the new Space Station in Atlanta.

• All sorts of holding against the offensive lines, except for one key call I will get to.
• First play of the second quarter is negated by a false start on the Rams -- at which point Jared Goff is unnecessarily nearly-clotheslined to the ground by a New England pass rusher.  No call.
• Just after CBS reported the pro-Patriot crowd, two no-calls benefitted New England on the next Rams drive -- a facemask on 1st down at the LA 45, and then a blatant pass-interference bump on third down from the 49.  Punt.  Still 3-0, 8 or so minutes to go second quarter.
• 4th and 1 for New England, 32 yard line, late in the first half, and the incomplete pass which resulted was identified by Tony Romo as a pick play -- as he said as much on the air!!!
• Then, a bit of a headscratcher to end the half.  Punt is downed at the 2 with 16 seconds left.  Brady takes a knee to the 1.  Why doesn't LA use at least one of their two timeouts to force Brady to run another play (or even two) to perhaps force a defensive score, if even two points?
• Another PI no-call benefiting the Patriots stalls the first drive of the second half for the Rams about midfield.

Then, the fourth quarter, tied 3-3, and the fun starts...

• After three Rams first downs to get the ball to their 44 from their 7, Todd Gurley busts through for a run into Patriots territory for 13 yards -- except a holding call on John Sullivan of the Rams, one, given a lot of the tackling at the line, especially pro-New England, I was seeing no-called all day, and it was less than some of what New England got away with...

This call was big. Somehow Rams center Sullivan got a hold on this play. pic.twitter.com/AnDtRqynZU

— Cole Cubelic (@colecubelic) February 4, 2019

Show me where that's a hold, given some of what New England got away with on the line.

Drive scuttled, punt, and here's the game-winner:

• Brady for 18
• Brady for 14
• Brady for 7
• Brady for 29
• Michel runs it in from 2 yards out for 10-3.

But the big one that seals it:

• 4:24 to go in the fourth, three quick first downs for the Rams and it looks like they are finally getting it going.  Then, a pass to Brandin Cooks in the corner of the end zone, and the replay says it all....

Whether pass interference or not, Brandin Cooks has to make this play. @NFL @RamsNFL #BrandinCooks #SuperBowl53 @Patriots pic.twitter.com/Ndr258j1vq

— Joe Pequeno (@JoePequenoTV) February 4, 2019

Joe, I don't give a rat fuck if he "has to make that play", the fact is that Jason McCourty got his hand in on the bicep of Cooks before the ball gets there.  Blatant PI, and now he's taking social-media heat for dropping two possible touchdowns, that being one.

--

But, back to the initial point to close this post:

A lot of the power players in this country do get together.

Someone has a dire vision of LA in the next 18 months for Brady to get #6 here.

I think it's about to be on in our big cities with Shutdown 2.0...

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: Some More Thoughts

Putting this below the game thread:

• One of the worst Super Bowl experiences ever put on by the National Football League.

Halftime sucked.

The game was worse.

The blatant rigging, the worst of all.

There may have been three remotely-impressionable commercials (the Bud Light "Corn Syrup, Game of Thrones basically taking Sir Dilly-Dilly and putting him squarely in his place, and the Washington Post), but, seriously?  $5.2 million to get 30 seconds of that, and you guys can't do better than this shit?

Bring back the fucking "Bud Bowl" if we're going to be that lame!

All sorts of urban-fication of just about everything....

• What kind of line would I get offshore to find out the Rams got their practices secretly taped and spied on again?
• Good touch for MLK's daughter to do the coin toss this year.
• Tony Romo was his Carnac self again.

Might have more here, but there really wasn't much out of the direct rig-job (as I said to one Rams fan going home:  Goodell giveth, Goodell taketh away).

Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future: My Call on the Game

I was sitting here in some deliberation.

I was probably going to post it this afternoon anyway, but some information from ESPN's betting sources in Las Vegas about sources notifying of a major player in the game has solidified my pick.  (And all information here is from two different ESPN Chalk articles.)

"Bettor X" has made his call.  The person I am convinced has inside information on sports (and ran over the 2017 World Series and Super Bowl LII's upset as a result) placed a $1.5 million money-line bet at the William Hill at 2:30 Pacific yesterday afternoon, and followed it up with $300,000 at the South Point at 5:30.  And these followed $2 million at the MGM Grand Thursday night.

Before I get to the pick and my reasoning behind it, some other interesting tidbits:

• As of noon yesterday:  Tickets are 3 to 1 for the Rams, money is 3 to 1 for the Patriots in the newly-legal BetStars online sportsbook in the state of New Jersey.
• Basically, this mirrors much of the information which has come in over two weeks -- the money is 75-80% New England on this game.
• CG Technology, who, IIRC, runs the Tropicana sportsbook now, had a number of interesting thoughts, as of at least earlier in the week, for some of the props...

Bettors there think:

1. There will be a two-point conversion.
2. There will be at least another player other than Brady and Goff to attempt a pass.
3. Someone will rush for 100 yards.
4. Not only will there be a score in the first 3:30...
5. But both teams will score 2 or more touchdowns in each half.  (That would assure an over.)

I'll have another post below this one with some of the 440+ prop bets at the Westgate.  (I've done a couple other offshore casinos, fair to look at this one.)

As of 3:50 PM PDT (this is an edit in) through VegasInsider:

NE -2.5 is still pretty much the line, though several books are offering juice as high as -120 for New England and even money for the Rams to keep it there.

56.5 is the normal total, but it may move down:  MGM just doinked to 56, as has Atlantis -- and Caesar's has had 56 for a day or so now.

--

But, to my official call:

As I was going through all of this, I became convinced that political realities had played a part in at least half of this Super Bowl.  There was little, if any, indication that the New England Patriots were going to be the AFC representative for what is now their ninth Super Bowl of the last 18.

In fact, many people would probably point that tomorrow is the exact 17th anniversary of the rigged Super Bowl XXXVI, the start of the National Religion pro-Brady/Belichick Republican Era in the NFL.  

... against the Rams.

But as I look at this situation, I can really only think of one overriding angle:  The $5,000,000,000 stadium now 18 months from opening in Los Angeles, and what LA might look like in 18 months.

I can say with absolute clarity (though some of the information I have been given on it is eyes-only) that many of the power brokers in this country (sports, political, entertainment, etc.) do run in the same circles and communicate with each other.  

The angle I was beginning to wonder about is what kind of condition, especially if a (now-second) shutdown causes Food Stamp/Section 8 rioting in the cities, especially LA, that Los Angeles and Inglewood (which is never really safe even under the BEST circumstances!) would be in come the scheduled NFL 2020 opening of the new LA stadium...

And the ONLY way Brady gets #6 here (especially since he has categorically denied all beliefs that he would retire after this game!) is if the NFL believes (through the communications I infer to above) the LA situation might be scuttled due to mass unrest at some point in that 18 months -- and far more than Rodney King-style.

With that caveat in mind (if this goes the other way, start watching the news CLOSELY), my pick is for the team that Bettor X has laid $3.8 million on at +120 in the money line.

My pick:  Rams win, game goes overtime, major controversial call(s) decide the contest.  I'll say 34-31 in overtime.

Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future. The View From the Westgate

Someday, I would like to go to Las Vegas for a Super Bowl.

And the main place I would like to visit for the game only would be the world-famous Superbook at the Westgate.

It was earlier announced that the Westgate has over 440 prop bets on the game and in relation to associated other sporting events.

ESPN put up a .pdf file of the book of prop bets the Westgate has put on the game.  Can't find, for the moment, when the effective time of the book is -- obviously, odds currently on the board take precedence, and all information is provided as information -- use at own risk.

But if you want to see how pervasive the National Religion has become -- and how pervasive gambling on it is about to EXPLODE with states making it legal -- follow me...

This is a very selective list of bets, with some commentary, and I could see this getting LONG...

• Point spreads up to Rams -17.5 and Pats -21.5
• Totals from 44 1/2 to 70 1/2.  (I am kinda liking +190 at 64 1/2, just saying.  Not sure if I can go quite the Full Monty to 70 1/2.)
• Only in Vegas can you lay 2% juice on a COIN TOSS.  (No, you can't bet who wins the coin toss -- that was made illegal in Las Vegas some time ago, for some odd reason.  But Heads or Tails is -102.)
• First pass by Tom Brady:  Complete is -220, Incomplete/Intercepted is +180.
• Goff is -200 complete, +170 otherwise.
• Score by the first 6:30 of the game:  Yes -220, No +180.  (Urgh.  Laying too much for what I think is a given here.)
• Score in the last 2:00 of the first half:  Yes -360, No +280.  (You don't think Vegas is getting wise to you, NFL?)
• Score in the final 3:30 of the game:  Yes -170, No +145 (IMODO, that's a gimme.  But I can see why some might think otherwise -- if you're thinking a blowout, the announcers might spend upwards of the entire 4th quarter on the rimjob.  Reggie White, Peyton Manning...)
• 3 consecutive distinct scores for either team:  Yes -220, No +180.
• 4 consecutive distinct scores:  +250 for Yes, -310 for No.
• Numerous first rush/reception yards propositions for many of the offensive skill players on both sides.
• Numerous longest/shortest situations.  Here's one for an example:  The shortest TD of the game, over/under a yard and a half -- with a fumble in the end zone being 0:  Over is +150, Under is -180.  (I'd take the Over on this one.  I'm forecasting a shootout something 34-31 OT.)
• Longest is over/under 49 1/2 -- both sides regular -110 juice.
• First score:  TD -200, anything else +170.  (Ugh.)
• First TD:  Passing -150, anything else +130.
• Largest lead, either team, over-under 14 1/2:  Over is -130, Under is +110.  (Though I would not be surprised to see storylining to this effect, I am not sure the league wants this game to get outside two touchdowns at any point.  I'd throw $10, the minimum bet at the Superbook, at the Under on that one -- given the money to lose.)
• Now for one I'd definitely lay money on, especially at the odds and the Buffalo Wild Wings promotion:  Overtime.  Yes is +700.  (All day.)
• Lead change in the 4th quarter?  (I'm not sure what it means if the game is tied.)  Yes +230 No -280)
• Defensive or Special Teams TD?  Yes +200, No -250.
• Will the score be again tied after 0-0 after a DISTINCT score?  (By a distinct score, as above, they define it as including all conversions.)  Yes -125, No +105 (That's another one which would get at least a $10 on, and maybe more, depending on the bankroll.)
• Total for New England:  Over/Under 30, normal -110 either way.
• Rams are 28 1/2, same principle.
• There are spreads on one team's full-game total vs. the other team in a half (the full-game team is giving a couple touchdowns).

There are 17 pages of just Super Bowl bets.  But one of the famous quirks of Super Bowl Sunday is bets which involve not only events in the Super Bowl, but events outside it.

Which will have more?

• The Rams (giving a half point), or Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks against Washington tonight?
• The Patriots (giving a point and a half) or Stephen Curry vs. the Lakers tonight?
• Stephen Curry, free throws missed tonight (+120) in a pick-em with Rob Gronkowski touchdowns (-140).  (He averages 4/8 free throws a game and makes 4.5.)
• A couple of LeBron props have been removed.  He's recovering from injury.
• There are two games in the one-bid Horizon League in college basketball tomorrow.   Total all of their points and give 8 1/2 to Jared Goff's passing yards tomorrow.
• An investment one for later:  A pick-em at normal -110 between the number of touchdowns in the Super Bowl and the number of  game wins the Golden Knights get in THIS YEAR'S playoffs.
• Why was I so specific?  There's also one at series wins for the Golden Knights vs. fumbles lost in the Super Bowl.

And the last page is Super Bowl MVP:  Tom Brady is even money, largely seen as the most-likely candidate if the favorites win.  Jared Goff is 2-1.  The next shortest bet is on all other players than the main offensive starters (and one or two defensive players) at 15-1.

Super Bowl LIII(E), The Past vs. Thje Future: A year's worth of bandwagoning in ten days...

Looking for angles on Friday, and I saw a good one which Brian Tuohy reposted...

Read this article then get back to me on why pass interference wasn't called in the Rams-Saints game. Follow the money...coming from Kroenke's pockets. https://t.co/j63AFUM4be via @luxury

— Brian Tuohy (@TheFixIsInTuohy) February 1, 2019

Bloomberg reports today that the Rams merchandise store online sold as much Rams merchandise in ten days as it did the Rams' entire first season back in Los Angeles...

A cool $3,500,000.

That is eight times the amount they got the ten days beforehand.

There's already been one Super Bowl rig-job I would attribute mainly to merchandising:  Steelers over Cardinals.