Saturday, February 2, 2019

Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future. The View From the Westgate

Someday, I would like to go to Las Vegas for a Super Bowl.

And the main place I would like to visit for the game only would be the world-famous Superbook at the Westgate.

It was earlier announced that the Westgate has over 440 prop bets on the game and in relation to associated other sporting events.

ESPN put up a .pdf file of the book of prop bets the Westgate has put on the game.  Can't find, for the moment, when the effective time of the book is -- obviously, odds currently on the board take precedence, and all information is provided as information -- use at own risk.

But if you want to see how pervasive the National Religion has become -- and how pervasive gambling on it is about to EXPLODE with states making it legal -- follow me...

This is a very selective list of bets, with some commentary, and I could see this getting LONG...

  • Point spreads up to Rams -17.5 and Pats -21.5
  • Totals from 44 1/2 to 70 1/2.  (I am kinda liking +190 at 64 1/2, just saying.  Not sure if I can go quite the Full Monty to 70 1/2.)
  • Only in Vegas can you lay 2% juice on a COIN TOSS.  (No, you can't bet who wins the coin toss -- that was made illegal in Las Vegas some time ago, for some odd reason.  But Heads or Tails is -102.)
  • First pass by Tom Brady:  Complete is -220, Incomplete/Intercepted is +180.
  • Goff is -200 complete, +170 otherwise.
  • Score by the first 6:30 of the game:  Yes -220, No +180.  (Urgh.  Laying too much for what I think is a given here.)
  • Score in the last 2:00 of the first half:  Yes -360, No +280.  (You don't think Vegas is getting wise to you, NFL?)
  • Score in the final 3:30 of the game:  Yes -170, No +145 (IMODO, that's a gimme.  But I can see why some might think otherwise -- if you're thinking a blowout, the announcers might spend upwards of the entire 4th quarter on the rimjob.  Reggie White, Peyton Manning...)
  • 3 consecutive distinct scores for either team:  Yes -220, No +180.
  • 4 consecutive distinct scores:  +250 for Yes, -310 for No.
  • Numerous first rush/reception yards propositions for many of the offensive skill players on both sides.
  • Numerous longest/shortest situations.  Here's one for an example:  The shortest TD of the game, over/under a yard and a half -- with a fumble in the end zone being 0:  Over is +150, Under is -180.  (I'd take the Over on this one.  I'm forecasting a shootout something 34-31 OT.)
  • Longest is over/under 49 1/2 -- both sides regular -110 juice.
  • First score:  TD -200, anything else +170.  (Ugh.)
  • First TD:  Passing -150, anything else +130.
  • Largest lead, either team, over-under 14 1/2:  Over is -130, Under is +110.  (Though I would not be surprised to see storylining to this effect, I am not sure the league wants this game to get outside two touchdowns at any point.  I'd throw $10, the minimum bet at the Superbook, at the Under on that one -- given the money to lose.)
  • Now for one I'd definitely lay money on, especially at the odds and the Buffalo Wild Wings promotion:  Overtime.  Yes is +700.  (All day.)
  • Lead change in the 4th quarter?  (I'm not sure what it means if the game is tied.)  Yes +230 No -280)
  • Defensive or Special Teams TD?  Yes +200, No -250.
  • Will the score be again tied after 0-0 after a DISTINCT score?  (By a distinct score, as above, they define it as including all conversions.)  Yes -125, No +105 (That's another one which would get at least a $10 on, and maybe more, depending on the bankroll.)
  • Total for New England:  Over/Under 30, normal -110 either way.
  • Rams are 28 1/2, same principle.
  • There are spreads on one team's full-game total vs. the other team in a half (the full-game team is giving a couple touchdowns).
There are 17 pages of just Super Bowl bets.  But one of the famous quirks of Super Bowl Sunday is bets which involve not only events in the Super Bowl, but events outside it.

Which will have more?
  • The Rams (giving a half point), or Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks against Washington tonight?
  • The Patriots (giving a point and a half) or Stephen Curry vs. the Lakers tonight?
  • Stephen Curry, free throws missed tonight (+120) in a pick-em with Rob Gronkowski touchdowns (-140).  (He averages 4/8 free throws a game and makes 4.5.)
  • A couple of LeBron props have been removed.  He's recovering from injury.
  • There are two games in the one-bid Horizon League in college basketball tomorrow.   Total all of their points and give 8 1/2 to Jared Goff's passing yards tomorrow.
  • An investment one for later:  A pick-em at normal -110 between the number of touchdowns in the Super Bowl and the number of  game wins the Golden Knights get in THIS YEAR'S playoffs.
  • Why was I so specific?  There's also one at series wins for the Golden Knights vs. fumbles lost in the Super Bowl.
And the last page is Super Bowl MVP:  Tom Brady is even money, largely seen as the most-likely candidate if the favorites win.  Jared Goff is 2-1.  The next shortest bet is on all other players than the main offensive starters (and one or two defensive players) at 15-1.

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