So we're six weeks in now.
Only Arizona is undefeated, only Detroit winless.
So let's take a look at the standings -- and we're going to see if we can carve out a kayfabe here.
AFC Kayfabe:
East: Buffalo 4-2, 2 up on New England.
North: Baltimore 5-1, 1 up on Cincinnati
South: Tennessee 4-2, 2 up on Indianapolis
West: LA Chargers and Las Vegas, 4-2, one up on the other two.
First, settle the AFC West: Chargers beat the Raiders week 4. Second meeting is the last game of the season -- Week 18.
So now you settle a three-way for the 2-3-4 between the Chargers, Bills, and Titans. The Chargers play neither team, so no HTH. Conference: Buffalo is 3-2, the other two are 3-1 -- Buffalo is the 4 seed.
The next tiebreaker gets into the deep math: Strength of Victory. According to ESPN: Chargers are at .500, Tennessee at .375.
So 4-2 non-division leaders are Cincinnati and Las Vegas. They will play in Week 11. For the moment: Cincinnati has the edge, because of Conference Record (2-0 vs. 4-1 - yes, Cincinnati has already played THE ENTIRE NFC NORTH!).
You have a four-team tiebreaker at 3-3 for the 7 seed (remember, 7 now go in each conference). So do the divisionals first: Pittsburgh and Cleveland play in two weeks for their first meeting. Cleveland has not played any division games, so the conference tiebreaker is the one which gives Pittsburgh the edge: (2-2 vs. 1-2).
Then, Denver-Kansas City: They won't play until December and January. Conference record is the tiebreaker because both teams have lost their only AFC West contest. That goes to Denver (2-3 vs. 1-3).
Then, Denver-Pittsburgh: They will not play, but Pittsburgh has the conference edge (2-2 vs. 2-3)
So here are the current AFC Kayfabe seeds:
- Baltimore 5-1 (AFC North, outright position)
- Los Angeles Chargers 4-2 (AFC West, HTH tiebreak over Las Vegas for the division, conference tiebreak over Buffalo, strength of victory tiebreak over Tennessee)
- Tennessee 4-2 (AFC South, conference tiebreak over Buffalo, loses SoV tiebreak to Chargers)
- Buffalo 4-2 (AFC East, loses conference tiebreak to Chargers and Titans)
- Cincinnati 4-2 (Wildcard, conference WC tiebreak over Las Vegas)
- Las Vegas 4-2 (Wildcard, loses both divisional HTH to the Chargers and Wildcard conference tiebreak to the Bengals)
- Pittsburgh 3-3 (Wildcard, conference tiebreaker wins over Cleveland (division first) and Denver)
- OUT: Denver 3-3 (wins division conference tiebreaker with Kansas City, loses WC tiebreaker to Pittsburgh)
- OUT: Kansas City 3-3 (loses division conference tiebreaker with Denver, has HTH tiebreaker over Cleveland)
- OUT: Cleveland 3-3 (loses division conference tiebreaker with Pittsburgh and HTH tiebreaker with Kansas City
- Arizona 6-0 (NFC West, outright)
- Tampa Bay 5-1 (NFC South, Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Dallas, Strength of Schedule tiebreaker over Green Bay
- Green Bay 5-1 (NFC North, wins Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Dallas, loses Strength of Schedule tiebreaker to Tampa Bay)
- Dallas 5-1 (NFC East, loses Strength of Victory tiebreaker to Tampa and Green Bay)
- LA Rams 5-1 (Wildcard, outright)
- New Orleans 3-2 (Wildcard, outright*)
- Minnesota 3-3 (Divisional tiebreaker over Chicago, HTH tiebreaker over Carolina)
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