Saturday, October 2, 2021

2021 MLB Game 162 in Preview

Well, well...

Manfred has created a rather interesting Sunday.

All games start at 3:15 Eastern or so. give or take five minutes.

And at least three (and, at most, FIVE) games have massive relevance to the playoffs, etc.

NL:  All left to decide is the #1 seed and NL West winner.

The loser has to play a one-game elimination wildcard and host St. Louis Wednesday.

If the Giants win, they win the division.

If the Dodgers lose, ditto.

But if the Giants lose and the Dodgers win, the Dodgers get on a plane to San Francisco (Season series:  10-9 SF) for a Monday playoff.

And if the NL West loser wins the wild-card, then the two teams meet in a five-game series with the West winner having home field.

AL:  It's all about the wildcards, baby.  And there is almost every scenario in the book.

Let's simplify, because, right now, the Red Sox and Yankees and tied, with the Blue Jays and Mariners one back...

There are sixteen different scenarios for Sunday, and only six result in no playoff -- either the Red Sox and Yankees win (four scenarios) or both Seattle and Toronto lose.  In five of those scenarios, the AL wildcard is Yankees at Red Sox (that regular season series also 10 to 9!).  New York would have to be the only winner to host Boston Tuesday.

Otherwise...

Let's simplify:  Call Red Sox and Yankees Group A, and Blue Jays and Mariners Group B.

For there to be a playoff of some kind, at least one team from Group A must lose, one team from Group B must win.

One team from Group A loses, one team from Group B wins:  Two for one.  The Group B winner and the Group A loser face off in a one-game playoff Monday.

Boston would host Toronto (10-9) or Seattle (4-3).  So Boston gets at least one game at Fenway no matter what happens on Sunday.

New York would host Seattle (5-2)

Toronto would host New York (11-8)

That would be a one-game playoff Monday.

One team from Group A loses, both teams from Group B win:  That's three for one spot, as the winning team from Group A would win the right to host the wildcard.

At that point, the wildcard game moves to Wednesday.  The three teams would receive A B and C designations, based on head to head record.

A hosts B on Monday, winner hosts C on Tuesday.  Tuesday winner goes to the one winner from Group A for the one-game wildcard Wednesday.

If Boston is the losing team in Group A, they would get first choice.  Seattle would get second.

If New York is the losing team in Group A, (NY 13-13 vs. the other two, Toronto 13-12, Seattle 6-7), Toronto would get first choice, New York second.

Both teams from Group A lose, one team from Group B wins:  That's three for two.  Same principle applies.

Boston would get first choice, based on better records than both.  If Seattle is the Group B winner, then New York gets second choice.  If Toronto is the Group B winner, Toronto gets second choice.

A plays B Monday.  Winner goes to Wednesday, loser has to go to C for the other spot on Tuesday.

Both teams from Group A lose, both teams from Group B win:  That's simpler, actually.  That's a straight four-team tournament.

Boston would get first choice, with superior head to head over the remaining teams.

New York 22-23 against the other three, Toronto 22-22, Seattle 9-11.  So Toronto would choose next, then New York.

Chances are this means games in Boston and Toronto on Monday, winners face off for the wildcard Tuesday (at Boston if they win Monday, NY or Toronto would host Seattle, Toronto would host New York in that scenario).

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