I read The Market Ticker, with right-wing Libertarian Karl Denninger, to get an idea of just how bad a lot of people actually need people like me shot.
One of the things he did was to give predictions based on what he thought was going to happen this year past. He came up with 16, and I responded to them myself.
Here's our "scores":
- Inflation, etc.: Clean score for both of us. With a lot of the side effects I inferred.
- 2022 Election: As clean of a miss for both of us as the first one was otherwise. ProTip to the anti-abortion Republicans: Wait til you have sufficient power to make it stick, because basically showing your cards post-Hobbs cost you the majorities we both thought you'd get in November. It got so bad that Bang-Bang Barbie came within a thousand or so votes of losing her House seat.
- I added that Manchin/Sinema and the plan that CPAC was talking about would activate. That one also missed, which I am surprised -- except given the fact that the rank-and-file Republican is a rank idiot.
- In exchange, Denninger talked about the Federal Reserve being forced to cut liquidity, a hit.
- Abortion/Hobbs: Denninger thought they'd stop short, I thought they'd go further. I do still believe an eventual goal is the application of enforced legitimate purpose being the extent and arbiter of rights (if any) for the populace. Miss. If you really get an idea of intelligence, you realize the Republicans lost the country in 1868, when the rights of all at least got some codification, regardless of if the person is believed to be of use.
- He spoke of the equity markets being vulnerable. Duh.
- He also spoke of business getting it in both supply and productivity. Another duh.
- Supply Chain: I guess mine's a miss, at least to an extent one still exists. Denninger said no short-term help coming and called that one a wash.
- All-Stop in at least one city after Super Bowl (mine only): I think this one is the one people are going to have to watch in 2023, because I think it's going to be far more than just one city. I'm tempted to call it a hit, except that, at least to the extent that the governments of said cities still exist, they "got it back". I don't think several cities will be so lucky next year. Your Mileage May Vary on that prediction score. It was one of the reasons it looked, until people opened their traps, that the predictions we made on the Republican majorities looked (no pun intended) conservative. And that's BEFORE we talk about at least two or three major power-grid sabotages late in the year.
- "Blue Hives" in trouble: His hit, on the basis that we've hit Detroit in many cities. Mine missed, because I thought it would go further. But it's another case of Republican cowardice. The only way you're getting it back in the cities is some form of Martial Law and SSS. And if the government won't do it, then you gotta go in and do it yourself. The problem with that is you gotta get your hands dirty.
- Biden finished/three 2022 Presidents: Nope for both of us. Much of this, in my opinion, came down to the same problem -- we both expected the Red Tsunami and it never came to pass (see above). As frightening as their fascism is, think of what these right-wing assholes would do if they had an IQ above their shoe size.
- Education system thin ice, will collapse eventually: I'll call that at least a large partial hit, because I think that, wrongly IMODO, there has been significant damage to the entire credibility of education, even to the point that one purportion is that electing people with intelligence (rather than CTE-laced dullards like Herschel Walker, who should be locked up for everyone else's protection) is "intellectual elitism". That they WANT YOU TO BE THAT STUPID. Karl goes otherwise, because it's not evident to the rank and file -- the problem with that is the stupidity of said rank and file. So we diverge on this one. And THIS is also before you get to the point of moral impositions on children. Hey, you want children not to be sexualized? Ban cheerleading, to start.
- Geopolitical trouble (his): If only! The problem being that I get the sense that you ain't seen nothing yet.
- The Ghislane trial not the end of the story (his): Should be a hit, wasn't. The fact is that this degree of rape/sexual assault/sexual harassment is all but an employment condition/statement of sole purpose from many men to women in this country, and has been for many, Many, MANY years. If we ever DO unravel that string, it's ALL over.
- Business uncertainty lifts Q3/4 (his): Nope. In fact, it IS getting worse. I think the real bloodbath begins in... a month? Two weeks??
- Housing bubble done (his): He claims a hit. Part of me is wondering if that is an "in progress", because a full hit on the bubble basically accelerates the cascade, just like the last one did when the "mortgage-as-ATM" ATM ended.
- Medical complex credibility and cost creating problems. Depending on how you believe about the COVID vaccines, and Denninger believes he has proof. If he's right, there is no medical complex left.
- Trump is done, and so are those around him. (his, I went the other way) He claims half, I might go as far as a quarter for him (and three-quarters for me), because his concept that Trump did much harm in the midterms is correct and it's clear that DeSantis is the one who, at least as a politico, they'd LIKE to rally around -- but they don't want a politician. They want a strongman who will utter two words: Open fire. If DeSantis can do that, he's their man in 2024.
I added a few side shots:
- Full grid-down chimp-out. Can't take that point, but the attacks on the power grid are noted.
- The Purge Begins. Nope, but I do think the collapse of the Red Tsunami may have had more to do with losing that point than anything.
- Certain parties can count their life expectancies in months or weeks. You know what? With the advancement of a movement to eliminate transgenderism and transgenders, I'll take that point on them alone.
- Next long-term President is a Trump and/or a Purge type. Undetermined.
- I did say my death would be conditional on the concept of my message getting through -- they're still cowards.
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