Games to watch tomorrow if you're like me...

Well, here we go.  It's Conference Championship Weekend in College Football, and, in less than 48 hours, the first Group of 5 team in history can make the playoff...

(And you can put the laugh track right about......  here.)

Now this is a rather unique situation, when you think of it.  You see, one of the first things I look for in college football at this point of the year is when the referees make calls which are so obviously fucked that it is clear they are trying to position certain teams in the playoff picture.

And when it happens, I keep asking the question:  Who do these referees work for?

That doesn't 100% work in at least the Group of 5 conference's case.

The American Athletic Conference, since the days of Central Florida, has put a logo in their branding:  "P6", meaning that the AAC is marketing itself as the sixth college football power conference.

Now, no one in the 5 signatory conferences actually believes this, but this indicates that any screwjobbery to prevent Cincinnati from making the College Football Playoff is probably going to have to come from the outside.

For Cincinnati not to get in, they must either lose (which renders all the other discussion moot), or four of these five teams must get in:

• Georgia
• Alabama
• Oklahoma State
• Michigan
• Ohio State

So, looking at the situation (and limiting it to the four games which will probably impact it), here's your official Superfraud Guide To "Fuck Cincinnati"...

American Athletic Conference Championship:  

Houston at Cincinnati  (Cincinnati is a 10.5 point favorite at home)

If this were any other conference than "P6", I would assert the possibility of the refs fucking Cincinnati square up the ass in exchange for a LOT of ESPN money.  There is a real thought process that, going back to the other systems, allowing a Go5 team even a shot at the title rips the fabric of college football.

Looking at this game, though, under the reality of the current situation, there are two other factors to keep in mind:

1. Houston IS a good team.
2. The game is a 1 PM Pacific start.  That is in line with two of the other five teams involved, and the team with probably the most potential of active screwjobbery will have already played.

So, to a certain extent, they may well know "whether to bother" or not (or just decide "Fuck the whole thing!", win anyway, and dare the Committee to fuck them over -- in which case, if/when they do, I refuse the bid to the New Year's Six at that point) before the game kicks off.

Predicted winner:  Cincinnati

Cover?:  No.

Potential for skullduggery:  Meh.

Remember, all other discussion from here comes under the assumption Cincinnati wins the game.  If it doesn't the point is moot, Houston goes to the New Year's Six, and we all go our merry way.

Big Ten Conference Championship:

Iowa vs. Michigan at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN  (Michigan is an 11 point favorite.)

The one advantage the Big Ten has here is that, this being a 5 PM Pacific start tomorrow night, they basically have the lay of the land.  The officials can decide to manipulate the game and take their chances.

I figure there is going to be a LOT of referee bullshit tomorrow, or even players or teams taking a dive.  All three of these remaining games have the possibility of it.

The Big Ten East has so lopsided the conference that you could probably have a tournament of the best four teams in the conference and NOBODY from the West makes it (Michigan, Michigan State, Pedo State, Ohio State).

Hence:

Predicted winner:  Michigan

Cover?:  Easily

Potential for skullduggery:  Medium to super-high, depending on other results and whether it's necessary to do so.

Ohio State is 7 right now, and the Big Ten would love to try to manipulate a huge Michigan win and see if the Committee, if need be (Georgia destroys Alabama, Houston beats Cincinnati, and/or Baylor beats Oklahoma State -- and the B1G would probably need at least two of these to happen), has Ohio State jump Notre Dame (and Cincinnati (and Alabama) if need be) to get two teams into the Playoff.

I think there is the potential for skullduggery in any event -- how high I put that potential...  I'd need to see the other three games first, and the Big Ten does have that advantage.

SEC Championship:

Alabama vs. Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite.)

Georgia has been the consensus #1 for basically the entire season.

Alabama shouldn't even be in the top four, and the only reason they are is a combination of them being Alabama and teams like Auburn taking a literal dive.

This game accompanies the Cincinnati game at a 1 Pacific kickoff, and I'd have to think, given some of the other circumstances, there will be officials from the SEC watching that game while it goes on and tweaking the dials of this one accordingly.

Make no secret here:  In a legit situation, Georgia fucking DEMOLISHES Alabama.

There are two problems with that:

1. It ends Alabama as a playoff contender this year, something the SEC almost-certainly DOES NOT WANT.
2. Alex Scarborough of ESPN (and almost-certainly others) talking about that Bryce Young of Alabama has one real barrier to basically being handed the Heisman Trophy:  Georgia's vaunted defense.

Predicted winner:  Georgia

Cover?:  No.  I'm looking something of the order of 10-7, 13-10, 14-10 with Alabama getting a Last Chance Miss, to use my nomenclature (where a team has a feasible chance to tie or win the game in the last two minutes and fails).  Even a 10-14 point win for Georgia probably would be enough to shitcan Alabama out.

Potential for skullduggery:  Very high, but not the highest of the four games.  The refs will definitely need to go HARD to keep Alabama from getting destroyed, but there's one game in which the conference's entire hopes go with one team...

Big XII Championship:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State at the Jerreh Palace, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.  (Oklahoma State is a 6 point favorite)

I saw the neon sign on this not with this past Tuesday's rankings, but the previous ones with Ok. State 7, Baylor 8, Oklahoma 10...

This was one of those that, if you paid attention, you probably could've cleaned up in Vegas, especially when that Oklahoma punt returned slop-played and intentionally muffed the ball inside his own 5 yard line.

Especially with the top six as they stood then, the Big XII Conference needed Oklahoma State to win that game, and then to double down and beat Baylor to get two quality top-ten wins at the end of the season so they could win their conference championship and make their case in front of the Committee.

There's only one problem, and it's nothing the Big XII can do anything about:  They go first.  They have a 9 AM Pacific kick, so everyone else will know, especially if it needs skullduggery, what went down before Cincinnati and the other teams involved kick off.

Winner:  Oklahoma State

Cover?:  By quite a distance.  The bigger the blowout, the better the case.to jump Cincinnati if it comes down to them.

Potential for skullduggery:  Do you need to ask?

Side scenarios:

A couple of them to look at:

Cincinnati loses:  All of this discussion is moot, Houston probably faces the ACC Champion in the Fiesta, and everyone goes their merry way.

Alabama gets destroyed/Iowa wins/Baylor wins:

One of them occurs:  If the one is Iowa wins, then everyone tries to lobby for Georgia/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Ohio State.

If the one is that Alabama gets destroyed:  Georgia/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Ohio State

If the one is Baylor winning:  Georgia/Michigan/Alabama/Ohio State

If more than one of them occurs and Cincinnati wins:  There's really nothing they can do to prevent it.

Prediction for tomorrow:

Oklahoma State rolls Baylor, Alabama hangs with Georgia but loses, Michigan rolls Iowa, the Cincinnati result becomes irrelevant:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama to prevent the rematch, and only to prevent the rematch
4. Oklahoma State