Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Score Report Week 4: Hanging From the Cliff

  • Week 4 average total:  43.53 for the 15 games.
  • 4 week average:  46.25 PPG.
  • Last year:  52.08 points for the Week 4 games, pushing the season average to 46.2 -- an effective wash with this year's.
  • Home teams were 9-5 this week.  (1 game in London.)  35-27 for the year.  (.565)
  • Last year:  8-4 and 38-22 (.633)
  • Over was only 5-9-1 or 5-10, depending on where you got Denver/Minnesota.  Season over bet is 30-29-4 to 30-32-1.
  • Last year: 10-3 for the week, anywhere from 7-12 games below .500 for the year, though.
  • Basically, betting the over on a consistent basis is a 2-5 unit money loser this season so far.
  • Favorites did not cover the spread very well either, doing the same 5-9-1 as the over did.  Season:  28-31-4, about a 6 unit loss on betting the favorites to cover.
  • In one game fewer than last week, the same 229 penalties got called as last week.  (15.3 a game)  And that's pretty much the average for the year, around 15.25-15.3.
  • Last year:  About 14 per game for the week.
  • The BIG STORY of the week:  In what I think has to be a record, SEVEN NFL contests this week were decided in Cliffhanger fashion.   Baltimore won the Thursday nighter in overtime (and anyone watching the game could've seen this coming!), Chicago won with a field goal effectively at the gun, Washington won with a touchdown in the last half-minute, Indianapolis and New Orleans won in overtime, San Diego won with a field goal at the gun, and Denver got their winning score with 1:51 to go.
  • Only two other games finished within a score at the end of the game, and only one further game ended within a score at some point in the fourth quarter.  Five of the 15 contests were non-competitive.
  • Last year:  1 Cliffhanger, 1 more decided by one score, 3 more within one score at some point in the fourth quarter, EIGHT non-competitive.
  • So:  Cliffhanger:  13/63 (20.6%)  Within one score:  32/63 (50/8%)  Within one score at some point in the fourth:  42/63 (66.7%)
  • All three numbers are up from last year:  9, 20, and 34 (though that is out of 61)

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