- Week 4 average total: 43.53 for the 15 games.
- 4 week average: 46.25 PPG.
- Last year: 52.08 points for the Week 4 games, pushing the season average to 46.2 -- an effective wash with this year's.
- Home teams were 9-5 this week. (1 game in London.) 35-27 for the year. (.565)
- Last year: 8-4 and 38-22 (.633)
- Over was only 5-9-1 or 5-10, depending on where you got Denver/Minnesota. Season over bet is 30-29-4 to 30-32-1.
- Last year: 10-3 for the week, anywhere from 7-12 games below .500 for the year, though.
- Basically, betting the over on a consistent basis is a 2-5 unit money loser this season so far.
- Favorites did not cover the spread very well either, doing the same 5-9-1 as the over did. Season: 28-31-4, about a 6 unit loss on betting the favorites to cover.
- In one game fewer than last week, the same 229 penalties got called as last week. (15.3 a game) And that's pretty much the average for the year, around 15.25-15.3.
- Last year: About 14 per game for the week.
- The BIG STORY of the week: In what I think has to be a record, SEVEN NFL contests this week were decided in Cliffhanger fashion. Baltimore won the Thursday nighter in overtime (and anyone watching the game could've seen this coming!), Chicago won with a field goal effectively at the gun, Washington won with a touchdown in the last half-minute, Indianapolis and New Orleans won in overtime, San Diego won with a field goal at the gun, and Denver got their winning score with 1:51 to go.
- Only two other games finished within a score at the end of the game, and only one further game ended within a score at some point in the fourth quarter. Five of the 15 contests were non-competitive.
- Last year: 1 Cliffhanger, 1 more decided by one score, 3 more within one score at some point in the fourth quarter, EIGHT non-competitive.
- So: Cliffhanger: 13/63 (20.6%) Within one score: 32/63 (50/8%) Within one score at some point in the fourth: 42/63 (66.7%)
- All three numbers are up from last year: 9, 20, and 34 (though that is out of 61)
The truth is not what actually happened. It's what you can ENFORCE happened. It's ALL enforcement.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Score Report Week 4: Hanging From the Cliff
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