So welcome to the meat and potatoes of
the NFL preview. I'll have more on the subject I started on with the
Michael Sam situation (the creation, dissemination, and enforcement
of the NFL's agendas) in a post in the next several days, especially
since it now appears the situation with Sam is now much more fluid
than it was 36 hours ago.
This, more, begins to take a look at
what I believe will happen with the NFL this season. Unlike last
year, I decided to consolidate this (and, hence, make many teams'
statements shorter).
I will, however, make some predictions:
- There's going to be a ton of bad, high-scoring football, leading to a lot of 8-8ish teams for playoff #6s, and perhaps #5s (or, like Green Bay last year, #4s) by the end of the year.
- Last year's scoring record of 46.707 points per game will be broken this year, for the fourth-straight year of record scoring in the NFL. Whether it is simply broken (47 or so) or smashed (50 or more) will depend on how many flags come out for the Points of Emphasis.
- Speaking of, Brian Tuohy makes a very good point on his NFL 2014 Season page... The NFL's own press releases report that fully 68% of all NFL games – nearly SEVEN IN TEN – were within one score (8 points either way) at some point in the fourth quarter. 48%, five short of half, were decided by seven or fewer points. (Six more, according to my count here, were decided by eight.) And, if you read this blog, 56 out of the 256 contests were decided by a score of some kind either in the last two minutes of the game or in overtime (or one game which wasn't decided at all – ended in a tie!). This basically means one key (non-?)call will matter more now than ever.
- Several of the contending teams are in the NFL's doghouse hardcore. Denver, probably Indianapolis for Irsay, San Francisco... (I'd put Washington on the list of doghouse teams, but they aren't a contender.)
- Penalties will be up. Fines will be up. Dirty play will be highlighted, with the occasional
badge of honorfine. But suspensions will be up too.
So let's get on it quickly. The
numbers may NOT work out to 256-256, take these as semi-rough
guesses.
AFC East: New England will run away
with this division, and, with at least two of the closest rivals in
the conference in the doghouse, should be a significant favorite to
win the AFC. They won't win the Super Bowl, though, unless Tom
Brady, before the game, announces he's retiring afterward. 12-4 –
#1 seed.
The Jets shouldn't be any good, but,
once again, they'll be the poster children for this NFL and somehow
sneak 8-8 or 9-7 and be relevant again in Week 17, but not further
than that.
Miami... One of those teams that's
getting SOME attention, but Lord if I know why. In that 8-8 melange
again.
Buffalo needs to get out of Buffalo and
flush the toilet on this mess of a team. Coach is nearly losing the
team already. 5-11, and be lucky if they get that.
AFC North: Cincinnati will be the main
recipient of a lot of the doghouse stuff in the AFC. Look for a
divisional-round upset of either Indy or Denver (in Indy or Denver),
then they lose to New England. 11-5.
Baltimore and Pittsburgh will both be
in that mid-range 8-8 mix that's going to occupy a shit-ton of teams,
but neither really has enough to stand out from that crowd
Cleveland? Cleveland might as well
wait for NBA Opening Night. (Disclaimer: The sooner they make
Manziel the starter, the sooner he gets some rig-aided love.)
Anywhere 3-13 to 6-10, depending on if and how much the media whore
starts at quarterback.
AFC South: Indianapolis will probably
pay a little bit on the field for Irsay's indiscretions off of it.
Considering Jacksonville is historically bad, Houston is nowhere
close, and Tennessee is probably on the wrong end of 8-8, Indy by
default.
Indy 11-5, Tennessee 7-9, Houston 6-10,
Jacksonville 3-13
AFC West: I'm THIS CLOSE to picking
San Diego, especially after the Welker suspension.
That said, I think it's clear it's
going to be a lot closer than people think.
Denver 11-5, San Diego 10-6 (#5),
Kansas City 8-8, Oakland 4-12
1 seed New England, followed by...
Denver
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
San Diego
and then a team which will make 8-8 on
Week 17. I'll go the Jets on this one.
The Jets stun Indianapolis, Cincy beats
San Diego.
AFC title game is New England vs.
Cincinnati – New England wins handily.
NFC East: How many more years are the
Giants going to start weak and then have to play to save their
coach's job? Real question in Philadelphia is whether Chip Kelly is
going to get in the NFL doghouse again for trying to impose the
Oregon pace on the NFL. Dallas will get by on Q-Rating, which could
go either way on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Washington is in trouble six ways from Tuesday, and the league needs
a long talk with Dan Snyder – YESTERDAY.
Philly 10-6 for the division. Giants
9-7 Dallas 7-9 Washington 4-12
NFC North: I've heard a LOT of people
saying Green Bay will win the Super Bowl this year – far more than
my pick. It's “It's all about the quarterback!” speaking loud
and clear, and, even though that does seem to be the league picking
up on that as well, I can't see it. Green Bay is not an NFL city in
the guise of the Roger Goodell Corporate NFL, and players only seem
to go there if it's the only way to keep their careers going – not
a good selling point, even with Aaron Rodgers. The fact they have to
be the sacrificial lambs for the Super Bowl Raising Party with the
Hags Thursday night, and will certainly lose any tiebreakers to them
come Friday morning, I can't see more than 10-6.
Chicago, same issue as last year.
Probably a better team than their neighbors to the north – no one
to sell. League had a perfect opportunity to put Chicago over last
year, and didn't – almost ZERO Q-Rating down there. In that 8-8,
9-7 mess.
Detroit, could the light be at the end
of the tunnel now? Fairley's been demoted for weight issues, new
coach, hopefully new attitude. Problem is, same dying city. 6-10,
maybe 7-9.
Minnesota is just a mess right now,
with Adrian Petersen about all they have, both in talent and
Q-Rating. And he's getting on the wrong side of a current youth
movement in the NFL, so Vikings Fan is probably going to have to wait
until they get the new stadium – THEN the Vikings get a bump.
5-11.
NFC South: New Orleans and Carolina
are clearly the class of the division. Cam Newton lost most of his
weapons, though, and there is some question about his health. Not
only that, but the league, if it decides to throw many flags for the
Points of Emphasis, will play right into Drew Brees' hands.
Atlanta is another one of those teams
muddling along, and may need the new stadium to take the next step
back up. Tampa is going to be a work in progress until they can
untie that personnel situation.
New Orleans 11-5 (#2), Carolina 10-6
(#6), Atlanta 8-8, Tampa 5-11
NFC West: This whole season is going
to be to find the Jim Ross Protagonist for the Super Bowl Champion
Antagonists. The Seahags are exactly what the NFL wants: a dirty
team (which the refs will ignore) with a loudmouthed punk squad, a
drug culture, the single most corrupt coach in football history (and,
if he's not, he's close), and a fanbase more resembling a team
coached by Jim Jones than by Pete Carroll.
Just as Roger Goodell would want it.
Arizona is going to be the recipient of
a lot of the help the league will give in this division, largely
because they are NOT San Francisco.
San Francisco is going to take a rather
large leap backwards, and somebody is finally going to be called in
to get the team in check – note that I'm saying OFF THE FIELD, but
it may still cost Harbaugh his job come January (even though Harbaugh
has said he will expel any player from the 49ers who is a domestic
abuser).
St. Louis... Lots of D-line depth,
none at the position the NFL and ESPN consider most important. Might
get a call or two if the league WAS behind the Sam drafting.
Hags 13-3 (#1), Arizona 11-5 (#5), San
Francisco 7-9 (hedging 6-10, and if the Kawakami rumors are right,
could go FAR WORSE), St. Louis 5-11
(Now, after I wrote this and before I posted it, I was talking to another reader of this blog, and a good point was made in support of San Francisco: The NFL, historically, when they have a longer-term Chosen One team, likes to send them through their direct rivals in the playoffs. (PIT-OAK in the 70s, a three-way with DAL-GB-SF in the 90's, IND-NE after 9/11....) Fail Mary notwithstanding, the Hags' main rivals are the 49ers. So that would make a case for the Niners getting some love so they can be served up to the Hags. Can't argue with that one -- we will have to see when the results are coming out.)
Seattle, New Orleans, Philly, Green
Bay, Arizona, Carolina
Arizona upends the Packers, Carolina
upends Philly.
Seattle beats Philly, New Orleans beats
Arizona.
NFC Championship: Seattle goes back to
back over Drew Brees and New Orleans,
Super Bowl: and then becomes the first
team in a decade (I said two before, but forgot about the 9/11
Cheatriots) to go back-to-back over New England in the last few
minutes.
