2021-22 AFC Week 17 Kayfabe and Relevant Week 18 Games

Same drill as Sunday's NFC post:

Two playoff spots and one division championship to be decided:

AFC East:  Bills by division record over the Patriots -- both 10-6, both in the playoffs.  Patriots must get a substantively better result than the Patriots next Sunday or the Bills win the East.

AFC North Champions:  Cincinnati Bengals

AFC South Champions:  Tennessee Titans

AFC West Champions:  Kansas City Chiefs

Eliminated:  Miami (at 8-8), Cleveland, Houston, Jacksonville, Denver

Tiebreakers:

KC and TEN for the #1 and the bye:  TEN 27-3 KC

So TEN is the #1, and clinches with a win next week.

BUF and CIN for the #3:  No HTH.  Conf Record:  CIN 8-3, BUF 6-5 -- CIN has clinched the tiebreaker between the two.

IND-LAC-LV for the 6, 7, and out.  First, the divisional LAC vs. LV:  LAC won the first meeting 28-14 Week 4.  

IND-LAC for the 6 and 7:  No HTH.  Conf:  IND 7-4, LAC 6-5.  IND #6, LAC #7, LV out

Current:

1. TEN (11-5, AFC South Champions, HTH tiebreaker win over KC)
2. KC (11-5, AFC West Champions, loses HTH tiebreaker with TEN)
3. CIN (10-6, AFC North Champions, wins conference tiebreaker over BUF)
4. BUF (10-6, wins division record over NE, leads AFC East, in playoffs, loses conference tiebreaker to CIN)
5. NE (10-6, loses division record tiebreaker to BUF, in playoffs)
6. IND (9-7, wins conference tiebreaker over LAC after LAC beats LV on HTH)
7. LAC (9-7, wins HTH tiebreaker over LV to eliminate them, then loses conference tiebreaker to IND)

LAC @ KC, IND @ CIN, NE @ BUF, TEN with the bye.

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Week 18:

• LV vs. LAC is a win and in, so that's the Sunday nighter.
• KC vs. DEN has #1 seed ramifications for KC, and has been flexed to Saturday
• CIN vs. CLE has possible #1 seed ramifications for CIN -- KC would have to lose first, then we check.)
• PIT vs. BAL:  PIT needs IND to lose to JAX before we can talk about anything there.
• IND vs. JAX:  IND wins a playoff spot if they win.
• TEN vs. HOU:  TEN wins the #1 seed with a victory.
• BUF vs. NYJ:  BUF wins the division with a win over the Jets.
• NE vs. MIA:  NE needs to win have have BUF lose for the division.

So every game on the AFC side has some relevance -- if reliant on other results, and the times have, hence, been matched up.

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#1 seed in the AFC:

• If TEN wins, they have it.
• If TEN loses and KC wins, the Chiefs get it.

All other scenarios are if TEN and KC both lose.

• If BUF wins, then NE cannot get it, due to division tiebreakers first.
• If CIN wins and BUF and NE both lose, then KC is out of it due to HTH swept by TEN and CIN.  CIN would then win the #1 by conference record.
• If NE wins and BUF and CIN both lose, NE wins on conference record.
• If BUF wins and CIN loses, TEN wins on HTH sweep of BUF and KC.
• If BUF and CIN both win, CIN wins the #1 -- so BUF cannot be the #1 seed.
• If CIN and NE win and BUF loses, CIN wins the #1 on conference record.  CIN, with a 9-3 conference record, would win any tiebreaker not involving HTH first.

So, in short:

TEN is #1 if:  They win, KC and CIN lose and BUF wins, or all five of the 11-5/10-6 relevant teams lose.

KC is #1 if:  They win and TEN loses.

BUF cannot.

NE is #1 if:  They win and all the other relevant teams lose.

CIN is #1 in any other scenario through conference record.