Friday, September 23, 2016

Something to keep an eye on, especially if the NFL is going with the Old Reliable Cheatriots...

(General Source:  Breitbart.com article.)

NFL Ratings for the first two weeks are down.

QUITE A BIT.

MNF Week 2 was the lowest ratings for a Week 2 MNF game since ESPN took the package from ABC...
(Rich Greenfield is a media analyst with hands in Goldman Sachs and the like.)

The Breitbart article believes, however, much of the problem lies at the feet of Colin Kaepernick and the other protestors of the National Anthem.  They believe (let's be blunt, WHITE) America has turned off the games in droves as a number of the players actually insist that people of their color and heritage (and, when taken to Megan Rapinoe in soccer, their sexuality) have these little things called RIGHTS!

There's another possibility, the New York Post posits:  This shitfest of an election has so enraptured the country that the cable NEWS NETWORKS are now topping the ratings and television, basically across the board, is suffering at or near double-digit-percent losses (just as the NFL has for the first two weeks! -- the Post article saying the NFL in all of Week 2 was down 12% YoY, with Fox News being the #1 network in all of television!).

I will give a third option to that.  Breitbart is correct to note the departures of Peyton Manning through retirement and Tom Brady through suspension.  He is also correct to note the lame-duck situations in both San Diego and Oakland, among other weak NFL markets.

The facts are this:  There are not that many names the NFL cares to market anymore.

I'll leave an exercise to the reader here:  Sit down with yourself when you have time and make a mental list (or write it down, if you so choose) of the players the NFL would market toward a Super Bowl (or have marketed toward a Super Bowl) who are still in the league and going to play meaningfully this year (so remove Romo and Peterson from the equation).

I don't think you're going to come up with a very long list.  It's one of the reasons I now believe my prediction made before the season is dead.  Adrian Peterson is out for the year, and the Patriots just ran the Texans off the field to be 3-0 during Brady's suspension.

Here's my list:

Eli Manning (and he was more of a sidebar than anything)
Aaron Rodgers (whose run at being pushed to Super Bowls is probably over!)
Cam Newton (and the jury is still out as to whether Newton will be ever pushed to WIN one)
Drew Brees (who is long past his prime and his days are done as far as the push)
Marshawn Lynch and the Legion of Boom (the former is retired -- the latter is still a point very worthy of discussion, but you need to score more than 15 points in two weeks, even if you only give up 19)
Colin Kaepernick (pushed for one appearance, now done)
Tom Brady and the Cheatriots (probably #1 now)
Ben Roethlesberger (see Rodgers, probably more likely he gets one more than Rodgers, but can't see that day)
JJ Watt (the Texans are probably now where the Vikings were for a number of years -- and will the league ever put the push behind ONE defensive player?)

and that's about my list.  Take a look at the last 15 Super Bowls:

50:  Peyton Manning (Retirement)
XLIX:  Tom Brady/Prevention of LoB winning another
XLVIII:  Legion of Boom/Lynch
XLVII:  Ray Lewis (Retirement)
XLVI:  Eli Manning/Prevention of New England winning another
XLV:  Aaron Rodgers/Prevention of Pittsburgh winning another
XLIV:  Katrina/BountyGate Saints
XLIII:  Roethlesberger/Marketing Money Steelers >> Cardinals
XLII:  Eli Manning/Revelations of Spygate
XLI:  Peyton Manning
XL:  Jerome Bettis (Retirement)
XXXVI-XXXIX:  Tom Brady/Patriots/Patriotism, with the one year of make-up to Gruden and the Raiders.

If you want one look at why NFL ratings might be slipping, the NFL believes (and was right until this year!) that the fans would watch anyway.

Would they watch THESE GUYS, though?

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