Monday, September 12, 2016

Definitions and Their Application: The NFL Sets The Bloodfeast, and The Narrative...

I think it's time, today, to talk a little about some definitions I'm going to be using this NFL season.

For at least the last two full seasons, at the indirect “encouragement” of Brian Tuohy (more, he gave the statistic for 2013 and I was intrigued to follow it), I have done “Score Reports” on the NFL on a weekly basis.

I have placed games into four given categories.

They are:

BLOWOUT/NONCOMPETITIVE: A game that, at no point of the fourth quarter, is within 8 points of margin for either team. The game is a blowout, and, given the choice, is usually turned to another game – hence, these are the games that Herr Goodell does not want.

WITHIN ONE SCORE 4TH: A game that, at some point in the fourth quarter comes within 8 points of margin (one score, a tie does count), but does not end with that condition. For example: Team B gets within 24-21 with 4 minutes to go, but a late pick-six gives Team A a 31-21 win.

ONE SCORE NO CLIFFHANGER: The game's final margin is within eight points, but the Cliffhanger Rule (my understanding of Brian's interpretation) does not apply.

CLIFFHANGER: The Cliffhanger Rule (to my understanding) is as follows:

A Cliffhanger is any football game in which the game-tying or -winning score (any score, and a regular-season tied game after the overtime is a Cliffhanger) comes at or after the 2-minute mark of the 4th quarter. This DOES NOT necessarily mean the two-minute warning has been invoked. If the winning score comes at 1:56 and the warning comes after the extra point or field goal, it is a Cliffhanger.

A game can have multiple Cliffhangers. I think I've seen a game with as many as four or five, especially with the overtime rules regarding the first team scoring a field goal!

You CAN, in rare instances, have a Cliffhanger that actually becomes “Within One Score 4th” – it would just require a second score in the final 2 minutes for the winning team. It actually happened once last year.

But there's a problem with that methodology, and I've realized it. You can have the fans on the edge of their seat and not have it qualify under the Cliffhanger Rule. Take Sunday night's New England-Arizona game, for example. The fans were on the edge of their seats before the snap was muffled and the kick sent wide with about 30 seconds to go. It's not a Cliffhanger – New England's winning field goal came with about 4 minutes to go, but it's something the NFL wants.

So I'm going to TRY to add another layer to it this year: The Last Chance Miss.

LAST CHANCE MISS: A Last Chance Miss is a game in which the team behind has a chance at a Cliffhanger in the Cliffhanger period, the final 2:00. However, the team must, at least, get some degree of close enough to invoke a Cliffhanger chance (the Last Chance) to miss. For example, Atlanta's loss to Tampa Bay would NOT be a Last Chance Miss: Atlanta's final attempt to tie the game didn't get past their 30 yard line, so no real Chance was Missed.

You can have a Cliffhanger AND a Last Chance Miss. In fact, we have had one of those games in Week 1: Oakland's win over New Orleans. TD + 2 for Oakland at :47. New Orleans gets the ball back (a ridiculous 15-yard penalty on Oakland for the conversion celebration actually put the ball behind the new touchback line for New Orleans on the kickoff return), and the final play was a 61 yard field goal which went wide.

I've went over the last two years.

The fewest number of non-competitive games in any week the last two seasons has been two. (Week 9 last year, 13 game schedule) We have had weeks with as many as NINE. I believe the lowest number for the last two years of a full 16-game schedule has been four.

We're breaking that last number, at the very least, this week.

In what has to be one of the greatest declarations that the NFL wants the on-field action to be the narrative, the NFL turned the dirty-hit-fest from Thursday night around and told the teams to knock it off.

Instead, the NFL did something else.

On what my anonymous friend believes the NFL would call “NFL Day!”, 15 years of the NFL being the dominant social narrative in this nation, the NFL had 13 games, plus the Thursday-nighter, so far this week, as your regular programming has been interrupted for football...

ONE, Philadelphia's 29-10 win over the hapless Browns, was non-competitive.

ONE.

We still have the Monday night doubleheader, but this means that the NFL will at least have to go back to 2013 to find a week with fewer blowouts in a full schedule. I sense they may be looking quite a ways.

The NFL has had FIVE Cliffhangers so far, and four Last Chance Misses. (Week 13 last year, I believe Thanksgiving Week, had SEVEN Cliffhangers. So did Week 4. Weeks 5 and 8 had six. Week 8 of 2014 also had six, the only week that season with five or more.)

Of the 14 games contested, 11 have ended within one score. Eight have ended either in Cliffhangers or attempted Cliffhangers.

Keep this in mind, America, as you swear your fealties to this garbage: DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE THIS IS NOT ROGER GOODELL YELLING TO YOU...


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