If you are one of those who have sworn
off football and do not care for in-game analysis, ignore all the
preview posts.
I guess it's time for me to put my
“It's all rigged!” spin on the 2016-17 NFL season and who I think
is going to be rigged/scripted for the Super Bowl.
I cannot guarantee that we will get to
256-256, but will do my best to get as close as I can.
AFC EAST:
Divisional matchups: AFC North, NFC
West
No real gifts either way here. You
have to deal with Seattle and Arizona, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and
the outside chance you may drop one or two to LA because they want to
push the Rams a little bit.
Anyway, here we go:
NEW ENGLAND: (12-4 Pythagorean +0.55)
One immediate caveat: If Tom Brady is
physically able to complete the season and declares he will retire at
the end of it, New England becomes the favorite to win it all.
That said: I would not be shocked at
all, if that does not happen, if New England doesn't make it to the
Super Bowl at all. The suspension is at Arizona and home to Miami,
Houston, and Buffalo. 1-3 is not out of the question here.
It's easy to see them pushing Brady
upon his return, but I have trouble seeing more than 10-6 here.
NEW YORK JETS: (10-6 Pythagorean
+0.06)
That shows the 10-6 was no fluke.
Tough first part of the year, and
that's when they may need to make hay while Tom Brady sits. The
expert predictor at ESPN says 2-4 through 6 (CIN, @BUF, @KC, SEA,
@PIT, @ARI).
Depending on whether the league is
going to re-push The Boom to the Super Bowl, 0-6 might be more
likely. I think a lot depends on Week 1, as it may be only larger
for a team like Carolina than it is for the Jets. If New England is
going to be beaten out, however, the Jets have to find a way to
Halloween. Prediction: They don't. 8-8.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-10 Pythagorean +0.10)
If New England goes 1-3 for the
suspension, the win is probably here.
That should tell you it's going to be
another long season in Miami. Miami is basically snakebit by the
mantra that ESPN and the other fools ram down your throat about “It's
all about the QB!” and they don't have a name QB for the franchise
they threw at Tannehill.
I've got trouble finding better than
5-11 here.
BUFFALO BILLS (8-8 Pythagorean -0.51)
Probably poised for the bump that the
Brady suspension gives, except they're going to need more than that
with the Darius suspension and two big draft-pick injuries. 7-9, and
they need help to get there.
So New England wins the division,
basically by default.
AFC NORTH:
Divisionals: AFC East, NFC East
Big favor with the washout NFC East
here for the North, and the AFC East is going to be a mid-level
morass with Brady suspended.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (12-4 Pythagorean
+0.42)
Somebody's got to represent the AFC in
the Super Bowl, and there aren't really that many candidates not
named New England. This is one of them, but is there enough sizzle
to go with the steak that the NFL will put Cincinnati in the Big
Game? Prediction: 12-4.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-6 Pythagorean
-0.57)
Took the expected backward step after a
2014 Pythagorean of +1.41. LeVeon Bell suspension and surviving
@WSH, CIN, @PHI might well determine the season here. Much like New
England, the suspension of a big player will be the question mark.
10-6
BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-11 Pythagorean
-1.13)
Not quite the number that might portend
a big move up, but still the impetus to get it done. This will
definitely be a team that will get a lot of wins early, but by
playing almost nobody. 10-6 as a result.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-13 Pythagorean
-1.16)
Not much further down to go here, and
one really does have to wonder if NFL football is ever going to work
in Cleveland. And, given present circumstances, they may be one of a
number of similar cities that are trapped to be statistic-fodder for
the pushed teams. In a rigged game, the Ohio State Buckeyes would
beat them.
4-12 will be asking something here.
Would not be shocked to see the #1 seed
and three playoff teams from this division.
AFC SOUTH
Divisionals: NFC North, AFC West
Kind of middle of the road. You have
some definite loser-games in both divisions, but some teams that
pretty much will roll over too.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (8-8 Pythagorean
+1.89)
Pythagorean indicates another big drop,
and, with a team with only a name quarterback and effectively no one
else, I'll go 7-9.
HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7 Pythagorean +0.25)
Could be a sleeper team here. JJ Watt
is already the MVP, but still really needs to get to the next level
of glitz (that pantheon of about 4-6 players who the league is going
to push like gangbusters). He gets there, and the question of the
Super Bowl Host City Jinx might come down to whether they simply need
someone to do the job to the NFC (someone like a Cincinnati), Tom
Brady either retires or is THAT back in the good graces (New
England), or maybe it IS time to push someone new in the AFC. 11-5
and the division.
TENNESSEE TITANS (3-13 Pythagorean
-1.88)
See Indianapolis, in reverse.
Tennessee has won five games the last two years combined. The bad
news: They are a heavy run team in a league based on scoring and
quarterbacks. The good news: They play Jacksonville twice, Chicago
and Detroit, San Diego, and Cincinnati. 5-11.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-11 Pythagorean
-1.36)
Ditto. Still not nearly enough to
think about contention. 6-10.
AFC WEST
Divisionals: AFC South, NFC South
DENVER BRONCOS (12-4 Pythagorean +2.30)
If Game One is any indication, they're
going to take people's heads off in Denver this year. That's 12-4
material in the Roger Goodell NFL.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (7-9 Pythagorean
effectively even)
Is this the year that the NFL finally
recognizes the grudge with Al Davis needs to be in the grave too?
Especially if the team is being marketed for Las Vegas (and signs all
over Vegas and a trademark filing indicate so), this might be the
year they push the Raiders a bit, not only in the standings but
several hundred miles to the east. 9-7.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5 Pythagorean
-0.09)
A team that Arrowhead will hand a
couple wins too, but no reason for the league to hand them any will
leave them somewhere in the area of 7-9. You'd think the record and
a backed-up 11-5 would indicate more, but the league has work to do
elsewhere in the AFC.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-12 Pythagorean
-1.97)
5-11, and that's to push them to LA.
It's one thing to have the only name in the division at quarterback
now. It's another to make him even relevant in a lame-duck city with
a lame-duck fanbase who might, at the end of the day, be more
interested in tearing down their stadium than their opponents.
So I think the NFL will do this:
Baltimore at New England to replay the
Loudest Manure Chant game, except that chant was in Baltimore. Give
me the Patriots here.
Pittsburgh at Denver. Denver wins.
New England at Houston comes down to
how pissed off the league still is at Tom Brady. I'll say Houston
wins it and upsets Cincinnati.
My predicted AFC Champions are JJ Watt
and the HOUSTON TEXANS.
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