The tempest is beginning to roil.
We have an increasing number of people -- both thugs, gang-bangers, and drug dealers and addicts on the one side and Libertarians and "Let Them All Die!" Republicans on the other -- who are trying people's patience.
First, it was the Corona Parties and Spring Breakers and all of that -- now, many of them have been exposed and now have had the virus.
And then we get the "Open My Goddamn State NOW!" protests.
It's time for some reality. It really is.
1. This is a decidedly First World virus.
Most viruses tend to propagate because of some degree of Third World uncleanliness -- or a point at which the First World breaks down into at least temporary state of such.
This virus (and this is one of the reasons sports shut down so completely and so quickly!) is explosively contagious and travel tends to exacerbate it.
There is a very real chance, as a result, that a third or more of this country actually has had it. It is coming out, more and more, that the number of cases is probably two orders of magnitude lower than reality.
Why?
2. Because it's clear that any degree of reality regarding not only number of cases, but number of killed by the virus, probably scares people even worse.
And I believe this is about the extent of any real "conspiracy" on the question.
I don't think I can understate the fear a lot of people ARE in. I have had to take very real stock that there is more than a decent shot I don't see 2021.
And I think a lot of people other than Debbie Gibson fans would like to see that happen for stealing three decades of food down my piehole.
But the fact is that I do believe that the number of deaths is vastly underreported as well.
3. The protestors on the Right want 2-3-4% of this country deceased due to the virus.
I read a couple of highly-bigoted right-wing websites.
At least one of them wants to see the diabetic and fat and otherwise useless killed, cooked, and EATEN. (I'm looking right at you, Karl Denninger!)
I don't think it is an exaggeration to say that a lot of people (see above comment) would like to see 2-3-4% of the entire US population culled due to the virus' first wave.
And then another similar percentage with the second, until only those "worthy" remain.
4. On the other side of the equation, drug-filled YOLO Culture is threatening to seize up urban, suburban, and exurban America.
You are seeing a bunch of unemployables (even if they were employed) lounging out, smoking pot, doing meth, getting blasted, and acting stupid.
And the police are largely doing... NOTHING.
At some point, that's going to translate into far bolder moves -- probably in the near future...
5a. We have at least another six weeks of at-home lockdowns coming, largely as a result of those who refuse.
5b. We probably have about a month after that before an All-Stop Condition hits.
5c. The entire point of this Safer At Home/Shelter In Place is not YOU not getting it, but keeping it from vulnerable populations.
But if we combine 4 and 5c, it comes to a disturbing conclusion.
5d. Many of these YOLO Culture types are probably aiming to off their parents or grandparents for some degree of money.
Especially now with at least one region of the country (Southern California) with an admitted unemployment rate of 31%!!!
But if someone doesn't slap some sense (from King Covfefe on down!) into this situation soon, this is going to be a hot-lead filled summer.
Why?
6. This virus is "too good". This was created somewhere to be loosed on somebody. But the lab in China probably had someone too lazy and it got out there first.
And, hence...
7. There is no standing vaccine for coronavirus/the common cold. Any real thought there will be one for COVID-19 needs to start there. Unless you can actually find that "cure for the common cold", a vaccine ain't happening.
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Now, onto sports, etc.
1. There will be social distancing. PERMANENT social distancing.
The fact is that what probably is going to happen is that this is going to cull out any business who can't have people standing six feet apart.
It's probably also going to be the functional end of not only "Eating Out", but....
2. Any real hope that we feasibly get back to 18,000 fans for concerts or basketball, much less 60-100,000 for football, is probably a pipe-dream fantasy at best.
If you need any evidence of that, please look at the fact that MAYBE a third of people are going to feel comfortable going out to events once this all is over...
And that not only has to deal with a second wave, but it also has to deal with the belief that they're not going to be able to come up with a meaningful vaccine.
3. Any restart of the economy has to take into account both 5a and 5b of the first set of things and 1 and 2 of this set.
Too much longer, and the infrastructure WILL FAIL.
At the same time, it's clear we will get a bad second wave.
If we let the lockdowns go until a vaccine is tried, chances are the infrastructure fails (I'm putting a date of that of around July 4, 2020) and we get people believing that even some of the employed are now "useless eaters".
4. IndyCar and NASCAR are done, IMHO. Any car racing in this country will either be local or virtual.
Part of the reason is that I believe they are very niche sports.
The rest is the amount of money (not only sponsor, but fan) needed to keep the machine going.
5. The NHL and NBA will be forced to cancel their 2019-20 seasons to have any real chance of having a 2020-21 season -- and that's if a second wave doesn't stunt the latter. If it does, very real chance the NHL does not survive with some of the Southern teams.
6. Major League Baseball may TRY a half-season starting in July and under very controlled conditions. If one positive test kills it, don't bother trying.
7. I think a lot of people, if they had their way, would want the NFL to be the relaunch next fall. I don't think we can wait that long -- hence, probably a metered restart of sports, starting with individual sports like golf in June?
In short, stay tuned.
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