Day 633

• The first COVID-19 forfeit is going to occur.  Washington men's basketball is forfeiting (for Pac-12 purposes only) to UCLA.  The NCAA officially records as a no-contest, the conference records it a forfeit.
• Amy Schneider is now all-time women's money-winning record-holder on Jeopardy!.  Another $53,400 today for $536,400.
• I did err in one respect:   Mayim Bialik is returning next week -- Jeopardy! is holding a two-week college professors' tournament.  Schneider returns after that.
• Ken Jennings noted today, according to my anonymous friend, that only one person, in the history of the program, had more money in 12 wins than Schneider:  James Holzhauer.
• Today is the first day of Early Access for Final Fantasy XIV and it's final expansion of it's first ten-year story arc:  Endwalker.  As such, the game is experiencing unprecedented load in it's ten year relaunch history -- so much so that the game freezes my computer because the processor can't handle the strain of the massive number of players.  And that's when I CAN get in!  Eek.
• Utah has routed Oregon again, won the Pac-12 football championship, and will face whoever from the Big Ten the Rose Bowl Committee wants to send or Iowa in Pasadena in four weeks.
• The second half of the home-and-home between the Warriors and Suns has gone to Golden State by 18 points, breaking the franchise-record 17-game win streak of Phoenix.
• This weekend is "My Cleats, My Cause" Weekend in the NFL.

TV Ratings: Weeks 11 and 12 of 2021 for the NFL...

I could've SWORN I did the Week 11 post, but I guess because of the Thanksgiving games, etc., it got through.

So I have both Weeks 11 and 12 to do then:

Usual source:  Sports Media Watch

Week 11:

Not the world's greatest week:

Thursday:  Patriots-Falcons drew a 7.7 rating and 13.5 million viewers (down about 8-9% in both measures from last year)

Sunday CBS Single:  Without a front game, CBS slumped to a 6.0 rating and 11.17 million viewers, down about a quarter in both measures from last year.

Sunday FOX Early:  FOX was the only real winner of Week 11.  Led by Minnesota's upset of the Packers, 9.15 rating, 17 1/4 million viewers (and they got about the quarter of both measures gained over last year that the single lost on the other network!).

Sunday FOX Late:  Dallas-Kansas City went huge:  A 14.4 rating and over 28 million viewers (up 14% ratings and 17% viewers over the late window in 2020).

Sunday Night:  Pittsburgh-Chargers was a big fat NOPE for NFL fans:  8.05 rating, 14 1/2 million viewers, down about a quarter from last year.  Worst rated SNF game of the year, just beating out Rams/Titans, which had a smidge fewer viewers.

Monday Night:  Giants-Tampa didn't do so well for ESPN.  11.92 million viewers, down about 6%.  And if I recall correctly, that had a Manningcast.

Week 12, Thanksgiving Week:

Detroit:  10.6 rating, 26.75 million viewers.  Flat on the rating, but 14% more viewers.

Dallas:  13.1 rating, 37.84 million viewers.  +10% ratings, +25% viewers.  The largest regular season NFL audience since NINETEEN NINETY-THREE!  (That year's Dallas Thanksgiving game.)  In the Nielsen era going back to 1988, this game was the third most-watched regular-season NFL contest.  (#1 is Giants-49ers Week 13 1990, which drew over 41 million viewers)

There was no third game last year, so the comparison is with two years ago.

Third Game:  8.0 rating, 19.34 million viewers.  -19% ratings, -7% viewers.

Sunday CBS Single:  Again, no lead game, so the single block went splat:  6.5 rating, 11 3/4 million viewers.  Down about a quarter in each measure.

Sunday FOX Early:  Bucs-Colts in about 60% led to a winner for FOX:  8.3 rating, 15 million viewers, up 7% ratings, 12% viewers.

Sunday FOX Late:  Packers-Rams scored well.  13,0 rating, 24 2/3 million viewers.  Up a tick in the rating, up 7% in viewers.  It's in the top six for regular-season games in both measures (#5 rating, #6 viewers).

Sunday Night:  Cleveland-Baltimore drew an 8.8 rating and 16 1/4 million viewers, down just a couple ticks in each measure.

Monday Night:  Seattle's dudfest with Washington drew 10.9 million viewers, down 4%

Games to watch tomorrow if you're like me...

Well, here we go.  It's Conference Championship Weekend in College Football, and, in less than 48 hours, the first Group of 5 team in history can make the playoff...

(And you can put the laugh track right about......  here.)

Now this is a rather unique situation, when you think of it.  You see, one of the first things I look for in college football at this point of the year is when the referees make calls which are so obviously fucked that it is clear they are trying to position certain teams in the playoff picture.

And when it happens, I keep asking the question:  Who do these referees work for?

That doesn't 100% work in at least the Group of 5 conference's case.

The American Athletic Conference, since the days of Central Florida, has put a logo in their branding:  "P6", meaning that the AAC is marketing itself as the sixth college football power conference.

Now, no one in the 5 signatory conferences actually believes this, but this indicates that any screwjobbery to prevent Cincinnati from making the College Football Playoff is probably going to have to come from the outside.

For Cincinnati not to get in, they must either lose (which renders all the other discussion moot), or four of these five teams must get in:

• Georgia
• Alabama
• Oklahoma State
• Michigan
• Ohio State

So, looking at the situation (and limiting it to the four games which will probably impact it), here's your official Superfraud Guide To "Fuck Cincinnati"...

American Athletic Conference Championship:  

Houston at Cincinnati  (Cincinnati is a 10.5 point favorite at home)

If this were any other conference than "P6", I would assert the possibility of the refs fucking Cincinnati square up the ass in exchange for a LOT of ESPN money.  There is a real thought process that, going back to the other systems, allowing a Go5 team even a shot at the title rips the fabric of college football.

Looking at this game, though, under the reality of the current situation, there are two other factors to keep in mind:

1. Houston IS a good team.
2. The game is a 1 PM Pacific start.  That is in line with two of the other five teams involved, and the team with probably the most potential of active screwjobbery will have already played.

So, to a certain extent, they may well know "whether to bother" or not (or just decide "Fuck the whole thing!", win anyway, and dare the Committee to fuck them over -- in which case, if/when they do, I refuse the bid to the New Year's Six at that point) before the game kicks off.

Predicted winner:  Cincinnati

Cover?:  No.

Potential for skullduggery:  Meh.

Remember, all other discussion from here comes under the assumption Cincinnati wins the game.  If it doesn't the point is moot, Houston goes to the New Year's Six, and we all go our merry way.

Big Ten Conference Championship:

Iowa vs. Michigan at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN  (Michigan is an 11 point favorite.)

The one advantage the Big Ten has here is that, this being a 5 PM Pacific start tomorrow night, they basically have the lay of the land.  The officials can decide to manipulate the game and take their chances.

I figure there is going to be a LOT of referee bullshit tomorrow, or even players or teams taking a dive.  All three of these remaining games have the possibility of it.

The Big Ten East has so lopsided the conference that you could probably have a tournament of the best four teams in the conference and NOBODY from the West makes it (Michigan, Michigan State, Pedo State, Ohio State).

Hence:

Predicted winner:  Michigan

Cover?:  Easily

Potential for skullduggery:  Medium to super-high, depending on other results and whether it's necessary to do so.

Ohio State is 7 right now, and the Big Ten would love to try to manipulate a huge Michigan win and see if the Committee, if need be (Georgia destroys Alabama, Houston beats Cincinnati, and/or Baylor beats Oklahoma State -- and the B1G would probably need at least two of these to happen), has Ohio State jump Notre Dame (and Cincinnati (and Alabama) if need be) to get two teams into the Playoff.

I think there is the potential for skullduggery in any event -- how high I put that potential...  I'd need to see the other three games first, and the Big Ten does have that advantage.

SEC Championship:

Alabama vs. Georgia at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite.)

Georgia has been the consensus #1 for basically the entire season.

Alabama shouldn't even be in the top four, and the only reason they are is a combination of them being Alabama and teams like Auburn taking a literal dive.

This game accompanies the Cincinnati game at a 1 Pacific kickoff, and I'd have to think, given some of the other circumstances, there will be officials from the SEC watching that game while it goes on and tweaking the dials of this one accordingly.

Make no secret here:  In a legit situation, Georgia fucking DEMOLISHES Alabama.

There are two problems with that:

1. It ends Alabama as a playoff contender this year, something the SEC almost-certainly DOES NOT WANT.
2. Alex Scarborough of ESPN (and almost-certainly others) talking about that Bryce Young of Alabama has one real barrier to basically being handed the Heisman Trophy:  Georgia's vaunted defense.

Predicted winner:  Georgia

Cover?:  No.  I'm looking something of the order of 10-7, 13-10, 14-10 with Alabama getting a Last Chance Miss, to use my nomenclature (where a team has a feasible chance to tie or win the game in the last two minutes and fails).  Even a 10-14 point win for Georgia probably would be enough to shitcan Alabama out.

Potential for skullduggery:  Very high, but not the highest of the four games.  The refs will definitely need to go HARD to keep Alabama from getting destroyed, but there's one game in which the conference's entire hopes go with one team...

Big XII Championship:

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State at the Jerreh Palace, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX.  (Oklahoma State is a 6 point favorite)

I saw the neon sign on this not with this past Tuesday's rankings, but the previous ones with Ok. State 7, Baylor 8, Oklahoma 10...

This was one of those that, if you paid attention, you probably could've cleaned up in Vegas, especially when that Oklahoma punt returned slop-played and intentionally muffed the ball inside his own 5 yard line.

Especially with the top six as they stood then, the Big XII Conference needed Oklahoma State to win that game, and then to double down and beat Baylor to get two quality top-ten wins at the end of the season so they could win their conference championship and make their case in front of the Committee.

There's only one problem, and it's nothing the Big XII can do anything about:  They go first.  They have a 9 AM Pacific kick, so everyone else will know, especially if it needs skullduggery, what went down before Cincinnati and the other teams involved kick off.

Winner:  Oklahoma State

Cover?:  By quite a distance.  The bigger the blowout, the better the case.to jump Cincinnati if it comes down to them.

Potential for skullduggery:  Do you need to ask?

Side scenarios:

A couple of them to look at:

Cincinnati loses:  All of this discussion is moot, Houston probably faces the ACC Champion in the Fiesta, and everyone goes their merry way.

Alabama gets destroyed/Iowa wins/Baylor wins:

One of them occurs:  If the one is Iowa wins, then everyone tries to lobby for Georgia/Oklahoma State/Alabama/Ohio State.

If the one is that Alabama gets destroyed:  Georgia/Michigan/Oklahoma State/Ohio State

If the one is Baylor winning:  Georgia/Michigan/Alabama/Ohio State

If more than one of them occurs and Cincinnati wins:  There's really nothing they can do to prevent it.

Prediction for tomorrow:

Oklahoma State rolls Baylor, Alabama hangs with Georgia but loses, Michigan rolls Iowa, the Cincinnati result becomes irrelevant:

1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Alabama to prevent the rematch, and only to prevent the rematch
4. Oklahoma State

Day 632

• Amy Schneider has made massive history tonight on Jeopardy!  In 12 wins, she has won more in regular play than any other female contestant in the history of the program.  A massive runaway led to a payout of $61,800 -- a new women's record in that regard -- and now sits at $483,000 even.  (An average of $40,250 a win.)  Tomorrow, she goes for being the first female contestant to ever win $500,000 in the history of the program.  (Counting tournaments, she would only need a win of $14,768 to break the women's record on the show.)
• I mentioned, a couple days back, a side women's list in the Talk section on Wikipedia's page on game-show top money winners.  10th place on that list is $800,000.  Rate she's going, she'll get it Friday of next week!!
• Andy Saunders' predictive algorithm on The Jeopardy Fan has the streak now reaching 22, which would be about $885,000, making that women's top ten.
• From Saunders, some other statistics:

1. Schneider now sits fifth all-time on the regular season money list -- the only one close now is Jason Zuffranieri.  From there, it's Matt Amodio at well over a million, James Holzhauer, and the current host of the show, Ken Jennings.
2. Today's single-show total is 33rd all-time for single-show earnings.  Take out Holzhauer's reign of terror -- it becomes #12.
3. And for number of correct answers on the show, Schneider now sits 16th, with Chuck Forrest the next on the list.

• The suspension of the Cowboys' Trysten Hill was reduced to just tonight's game.  And, given the present game with New Orleans, at least some clothespins appear to be being tested by the NFL...   
• Or....  MAJOR REFBALL no-call on a 4th-quarter pick for the Saints.  Saints commit clear shot-to-the-head Roughing The Passer, not called.  Saints down 20-10 middle 4th after the no-call.
• And a return no-call just before the Pick Six mentioned below for Dallas...
• Doesn't look like it's going to turn into anything though.
• And then Taysom Hill throws it right to the defender for the Pick Six which seals it -- Dallas is 8-4.
• The Memphis Grizzlies made NBA history tonight in defeating the Oklahoma City Thunder...  152-79!  The largest margin of victory in NBA history.  The 73-point margin beat the old record by five.
• And it wasn't running up the score either:  No Memphis starter played the equivalent of two quarters in the game.

If there was ONE THING which could blow up Brady vs. Belichick, it has just happened...

Confirmed:  Antonio Brown faked his vaccination status.

The NFL has suspended him three games for a fake COVID vaccination card.

Now, one has to ask if this is now the one thing which can blow up the proposed Brady vs. Belichick Super Bowl a lot of us have been talking about.

There has been a lot of press on the AFC side about Mac Jones and the Patriots.  There has been a shitton of refball already for the Patriots.

But this could blow up both -- unless the NFL wants to play a very long game and hope that Tom Brady's body (and the economy and the country) can hold up until February of 2023 and Brady vs. Belichick becomes the plan for Super Bowl LVII.

It's not the on the field you need to worry about with this situation:  Brown's been out several weeks with an ankle (purportedly).

But it's the off the field, and the NFL's position as a pillar of American society -- The National Religion.

There's also the optics of this on the heels of COVID-12 and the liar in Green Bay.  This is one reason I hope Brown, at least, appeals the decision on that basis.  And if this does put Green Bay in material consideration, how bad would THOSE optics look for the NFL?  Seriously!

And that said, there now has to be a very real and prescient question:  Is there any team out there which WANTS the NFC Championship?

• COVID-protocol fouls (and very public ones) could take out the Bucs 
• and Packers.
• It now appears the Cowboys are sufficiently in the doghouse after the punch suspension that they have to be considered down.
• Fuck you, Kroenke!

I mean, are we SERIOUSLY looking at a Baltimore-Arizona Super Bowl?  A 10-7 NFC Champion (at which point, good luck even GUESSING ONE at this point)???

And then what happens if the league has no logistical choice?  Is it literally clothespin on nose and take the best worst option and Baltimore or even Belichick win the Super Bowl?  (If the latter, then see my comment about the "very long game" above...)

==================

EDIT TO ADD 11:10 PM PST 12/2/21:

ALL OF THAT SAID:

Yahoo did publish an article this morning talking about ratings of a Brady vs. Belichick Super Bowl.

That said, the Brown suspension was announced this afternoon.

But after the announcement of Brown's suspension, you are definitely going to want to keep an eye on both the Bucs AND the Patriots...

And there's the lockout -- as much a rig-job as anything else in sports...

Here we go...

It's midnight Eastern exiting the 1st, and that means the CBA for MLB is over, with the owners already voting to lock out.

I have, as I've said a number of times, a reader of this blog who is a baseball historian, a close friend, and has a lot of good points...

This friend and I have been talking most of the last several months.

We believe this work stoppage will be ugly, long, and, unlike the last one a quarter-century ago, I think the owners ARE prepared to dig in their heels, even on a court challenge.

They want everything, as my friend has noted to me a couple times today.  They have openly colluded to keep rank-and-file salaries down and any number of other things.

They want to smash the union, after being exposed as not caring about either the major-league players or ESPECIALLY the minor-league ones...

They want to make it honor to play the game, as if the players would pay them for the privilege.

And the players have had, correctly, MORE THAN ENOUGH.

And about three minutes after the deadline, reports that the lockout is already implemented.

It's on.

And I do NOT believe Major League Baseball, as you knew it before this year, is going to survive this.  Doesn't necessarily mean teams will die or anything -- but either the players are going to get smashed or the owners are going to officially be fucked.

Here we go...

And Manfred with BULLSHIT 15 minutes in...

Rob Manfred: "This defensive lockout was necessary because the Players Association’s vision for Major League Baseball would threaten the ability of most teams to be competitive."

— Bill Shaikin (@BillShaikin) December 2, 2021

You can't even stand at least two of the teams which ARE competitive, you motherfucking goddamn piece of shit moron!!!

You've been BEGGING for this lockout for YEARS through illegal collusion and other anti-competitive practices.

My anonymous friend came up with an idea:  Good time to get 5-6 teams moved all at once, especially if we lose the entire 2022 season??? 

To what really is no one's surprise:  MLB.com is now a ghost-town history site, largely devoted to the 2021 Hall of Fame voting, etc., and historical backstories.  No current players now prominently shown -- probably as a function of the CBA covering that too.

Day 631

• Amy Schneider has become the third UltraChampion on Jeopardy! just this season.  Her tenth (and most contended) win was last night, but she cashed for another $38,000 (her effective average for her 10 wins) for a total of $380,200 -- and several spots on the Top 10 Jeopardy! regular-season ladder await.  Andy Saunders also notes she is now the 20th highest winner on the show, including tournaments and events.
• Since the series went to unlimited title reigns in 2003, there have only been 12 such UltraChampions on the show.  This makes this season quite odd, as it's only December 1st, and Schneider is this season's THIRD.
• Saunders' predictive algorithms estimate Schneider's title reign hits at least 18 -- and, at current rate, that'd be $668,000 or so.
• A side list is kept of the top female single money-winners on Wikipedia.  #10 on that list is $800,000.
• Tonight is the deadline for the MLB CBA.  I think a lot of people are way too optimistic.  It's going to take another court smackdown of the owners not to have, at best, a replacement-players season.   
• The first of the home-and-home between the Warriors and Suns was last night in Phoenix, and the Suns won their 17th straight.  Only 16 times in the league's history have teams done better, only six of them since the year 2000.  Friday is the rematch in San Francisco.
• Free-agent tampering has cost the Bulls and Heat their next second-round draft picks.  OK, they just effectively drafted Lonzo Ball and Kyle Lowry with them then...  How about something with some TEETH???   
• The WTA has made good -- they're leaving China because they have not been given sufficient consideration on Peng Shuai's safety.
• MLB Lockout is now imminent:  The final day's talks lasted just seven minutes.  The owners were the ones to walk out.
• And it's now happening.  Owners vote unanimously to lock out the players.  Actually surprised the Dodgers went with it, after everything which has happened...   
• And in one of those rare moments I mourn for COVID:  COVID-19 has tested positive for Dana White.  (He and his entire family have the virus.  GEE, WHAT A MOTHERFUCKING SHOCK!)