Friday, February 10, 2023

Super Bowl "Best vs. Best": Prop bets, lots of em...

This won't be the full list (there are over 2,000), and they are courtesy of the Westgate SportsBook, the largest legal sportsbook in the world, and the Las Vegas Review-Journal.  However, the information is only good as of a week ago -- if you do bet some of these, there or elsewhere, get the information from the book directly before you wager.

First, let's look at my KC 27-10 prediction:

  • They didn't quite give KC -17, but KC -17 1/2 would get you +800.
  • Under 39 1/2 would be +350.
  • Exactly a 17-point margin would be +1300.
  • KC 27 points is 10-1.
  • PHI 10 points is 30-1.
  • It's 200-1 if you can pick a shutout.  100-1 if you essentially are betting ON a shutout.
  • 36-40 points (they do ranges of five from 2 to 91+) is 7-1.
  • A 17-20 point win for the Chiefs would be 16-1 But wait, exactly 17 is 13-1, and more than 17 1/2 is 8-1...  Hmmm...
Now, some interesting prop bets from a quick scan before you go looking yourself:
  • The SportsBook has the game backloaded, as it probably would be expected.  Total for the first quarter is 9 1/2, second quarter is 10, second half is 14 each quarter.
  • You can get +550 if you think the game will go over 66 1/2 -- that's talking 35-32, for the record.
  • Coin toss is only a penny of juice -- -101 each way.
  • Missed extra point -- +350 Yes.  If I were in Vegas, I'd probably drop...  I think $10 is their minimum, if my memory recalls... on this Yes   
  • Either team score in the final 3 1/2 minutes:  Yes is -170.
  • There is a regular-juice bet on which team throws the challenge flag first.  (Note:  This does NOT count challenges from the booth.)
  • If I were in Vegas, I'd have to ask if I were misreading:  You're giving me +110 on Jalen Hurts throwing an interception?  Is that for the game or what?
  • Shortest TD of the game:  Getting +140 for over a yard and a half.  Giving -160 for the shortest TD of the game being a recovery/interception in the end zone or a 1 yard play.
  • Will there be a lead change in the 4th quarter?  Yes is +270.
  • Overtime Yes +900.
  • Looks like an exact margin of 3 is the most common people can think of for this game:  +450 Yes.
  • Regular juice on a 2-point conversion attempt.  Making it is Yes +230.
  • Super Bowl MVP: The quarterbacks are the runaway favorites:  Mahomes +115, Hurts +125.  (Wait:  If Philly is favored to win by at least a point and a half, shouldn't that be the other way around, hype machine aside??)

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