Friday, February 10, 2023

Super Bowl "Best vs. Best": Top of the weekend betting info...

48-ish hours to High Mass...

  • According to Vegas Insider, Caesar's Sportsbook has already seen the following, as of 6 PM Pacific Friday early-evening:
    • $150,000 on the spread (which is holding at PHI -1.5), one each way.
    • Someone bought to PHI -2, and laid an odd $131,000+, probably getting -120 or something to tick it 2 -- which, sans my belief on the prediction, would be a very good thought if you're looking at that kind of money on the line!
    • $100,000 on PHI -1.5
    • $164,994 (yes, precisely THAT number) on PHI to win at -125.  Pays off $132,000 if I have my math right.
    • $150,000 on the Chiefs to win (and that's +105!).  Pays off $157,500.
    • A $314,000 bet on the Chiefs +3.5 (paying to that makes that number -157, meaning a $200,000 payoff, and all the Chiefs have to do is not lose by more than a field goal).
    • $115,000 on the Chiefs and getting a half-point (meaning they win a tied first half) for the first half (-115, $100K payoff).
  • And then these on the total:
    • The same customer has laid almost $400,000 on the Over.  Just over $270,000 on Over 50.5, $110,000 on Over 50.
    • Someone laid $110,000 on Over 49.5
    • Another customer laid double that on Under 51.
    • And another customer laid two big Under bets:  $110,000 Under 51, double that Under 50.5.
  • Caesar's is noting about 60% of both tickets (58%) and money (61%) are trending to the Over.  And, knowing the NFL, you know what THAT MEANS...     
  • Another sportsbook has a very interesting prop -- and not a COMPLETELY ridiculous one:  You can lay 15-1 (+1500) that the game ends in a Scorigami -- that is, no NFL game in history has ended with that score.
  • And, for the record, here is the Scorigami website.  If the score of the game (the intersection of the two lines, winning score and losing score, is white, it's a Scorigami.)
  • And according to CBS Sportsline, there were three such games, in Weeks 4, 13, and 16 -- removing 48-45, 54-19, and 22-18 off the books.  Looking at the chart, your best hope is the losing team getting some sort of "8+3" result -- 11 or 18 being the most likely.
  • As of right now, all Vegas casinos have PHI 1.5 (regular juice) -- with one exception.  The Wynn has a slightly modified PHI -2 -- take PHI, you're laying -112.  Take KC, you're laying only -104.
  • The total has some variance, at least in how much juice you're laying.  It's either 50.5 or 51, but MGM and FanDuel, at 50.5, are laying -115 on the Over and -105 on the Under.  The Wynn's at 51, and you're only laying -108 either way.  There are two online sportsbooks that are at 51 and hedging Over (laying -106 Over, -114 Under).  PointsBet is regular juice at 50.5.  Sports Illustrated and Caesar's are regular juice at 51.
  • Moneyline is PHI from about -120 to -125, KC at even to getting five cents on the dollar.
From ESPN Chalk, as of early this afternoon:
  • BetMGM has two seven-figure bets on the Eagles to win at -125.  One for a million and a quarter, another for a million.
  • Mattress Mack is bowing out.  He's not going to make much of a gamble on stuff -- he's lost too much money on the previous playoff games and TCU.  Lost $750,000 on a bet at 12-1 for Cincinnati to win the Super Bowl.
  • Yesterday, an Atlantic City casino noted that, though 4 of every 5 tickets (pretty close to Philly, to be fair) were for Philadelphia to win and cover, enough tickets have come in with enough money to clean out that money to the point the money is almost even!  Hmmmmmmmmmmm...  That seems to indicate something to me...   
  • BetMGM reported someone bet $2500 that the halftime score would be...  scoreless.  If that person is right, it's $625,000.  And we had a Super Bowl that almost got to that point a couple years back!
  • As of Wednesday, the head of the SuperBook in Las Vegas said he wanted a low-scoring game (a lot of money taking Over), but he wasn't sure yet (thinking the public would come in on Kansas City over the weekend) who he really wanted to win yet -- and he says that's a rarity by 96 hours before the game.
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So, as things stand now, I really like that 27-10 KC pick I did last night.  KC wins to beat all the Philly spread bettors, the game goes under by two touchdowns.

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