Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Score Special Report: Attack of the Cliffhangers

Anyone who follows the Score Reports (and, like them, this will focus only on on-field material) has seen a quite disturbing trend this mid-season:  Roger Goodell has effectively ordered every game possible, it seems, to be decided as a Cliffhanger.

What I started here as the Cliffhanger Index was taken from Brian Tuohy a couple years back, when he desired to study the number of games in which the deciding score of the game would take place in the last two minutes of the game or in overtime.

So, in a summary but to expand on it, here are my rules on what constitutes a Cliffhanger:
  • The lead must change hands (or the game become tied) at least once within the last two minutes of regulation time or in overtime.
  • The two-minute warning is not necessary in this regard.  If the final play before the two-minute warning comes exactly at 2:00 or below, and results in a lead-changing or tying score, it is a Cliffhanger.
  • There are games that could easily be Cliffhangers, but not qualify.  Hail Mary attempts to win, last-second failed field-goals which would've won the game, needing two scores and failing the onside kick after getting one, etc. and so forth.  See the first rule.
  • A Cliffhanger only counts once, but it can happen multiple times.  The Monday nighter just completed had a Cliffhanger four times over (a tying field-goal to send it to overtime, and the new overtime rules allowed two trading field goals before Carolina won it with another field goal).
Let's take a look at the last five weeks:
  • Week 4:  7, including 3 overtime games, 2 of them in national prime-time.
  • Week 5:   6, including 3 overtime games, a field goal at the gun, and 2 Cliffhangers in national prime-time.
  • Week 6:  3, 2 in overtime.
  • Week 7:  1
  • Week 8:  6, four field goals at the regulation gun, two games going overtime, and three involving multiple Cliffhanger scores.
So this means out of the last 71 NFL games played, 23 have ended in Cliffhangers, about one-third of the NFL games played in the last five weeks.  Three of the five weeks have come within one Cliffhanger of having half or more (Week 4 had 15 contests) of the games end in such a manner.

Let's take a look at some of the national games:

Thursday night Cliffhangers:  Week 2, Week 4
Sunday night Cliffhangers:  Week 1, Week 4, Week 5
Monday night Cliffhangers:  Week 5, Week 8

One other thing I'd like to look at is Cliffhangers for and against teams:

Denver:  3 for
Atlanta:  3 for, 1 against
New Orleans:  2 for
Carolina:  2 for
Washington:  2 for, 1 against
Chicago:  2 for, 2 against
Baltimore:  2 for, 2 against
Cincinnati:  1 for
St. Louis:  1 for
Indianapolis:  1 for, 1 against
Jacksonville:  1 for, 1 against
Oakland:  1 for, 1 against
Minnesota:  1 for, 1 against
Pittsburgh:  1 for, 1 against
Tampa Bay:  1 for, 1 against
NY Giants:  1 for, 2 against
San Diego:  1 for, 2 against
Cleveland:  1 for, 2 against
Seattle:  1 for, 3 against
Detroit:  1 against
Miami: 1 against
San Francisco:  1 against
Dallas:  2 against
Kansas City:  2 against
Philadelphia:  2 against
  • 25 NFL teams have been involved in one or more Cliffhangers.
  • The 7 who are not:  New England Patriots (7-0), New York Jets (4-3), Buffalo Bills (3-4), Houston Texans (3-5, and tied for the lead in the AFC South -- 6-10 is the pace to win this division!), Tennessee Titans (1-6, #2 Draft Pick right now), Green Bay Packers (6-1), and Arizona Cardinals (6-2).
  • Four of those seven teams lead their divisions, at least in a tie.  Division leaders are 9-3.
  • Divisional records:  AFC East 0-1.  AFC North:  4-5  AFC South:  2-2  AFC West:  5-5  NFC East:  3-7  NFC North:  3-4  NFC South:  7-2  NFC West:  2-4
  • So every other division in the league except the NFC South has a losing or .500 record in this type of game.
  • The four undefeated teams left have been in only six Cliffhangers in their 28 wins.  There is only one NFL team with only one loss, and it hasn't been in any!
  • Most Cliffhangers won:  Denver (7-0), Atlanta (6-2):  3 each, Atlanta losing one.
  • Most Cliffhangers lost:  Seattle (4-4), which has lost 3.
  • Most Cliffhangers involved in:  Seattle (4-4), Atlanta (6-2), Baltimore (2-6), Chicago (2-6):  4
  • The two Cliffhanger wins for both Chicago AND Baltimore are their only two of the season!

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