Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Week 10 Score Report: One of the wildest weeks in history...

Three MAJOR storylines played through this week other than the two openly rigged end results.  We'll get to those in a bit.
  • Lowest week of the year at 41.64 points per game.  (45.38 last year)
  • Per-game average for the 10 weeks down to 46.452.  (46.680 last year)
  • 186 penalties in the 14 games this week (a little more than 13 a game, and it's coming down)
  • Cliffhangers:  3 (the two openly rigged ones in the post below (NE and Jacksonville) and Tampa with a touchdown late by...  Jameis Winston.
  • 5 more decided by one score, and 2 more than that were within one score at some point in the fourth quarter.
  • For the season:  Cliffhangers:  36/146 (24.66%)  (Last year:  19.05%)
  • Decided by one score:  81/146 (55.48%)  (Last year:  39.46%)
  • Within one score at some point in the fourth quarter:  101/146 (69.18%)  (Last year:  62.59%)
Now, for the three big stories of the week, and I do have to think any one of these could be historic, but all three???
  • Only THREE home teams won in a fourteen-game schedule.  It's probably going to take some research to find out, and no one is saying -- but I would be shocked if that's not a record for a 14-game schedule that the home team only goes 3-11!  That puts the home team season record to 81-62 (.566).  (Last year:  .6215)
  • Only TWO favorites covered:  Pittsburgh covered a touchdown against Cleveland.  Carolina was gifted one, only favored 3.5 over Tennessee.  That 2-12 record may be the best week ever for Vegas against favorites (and one possible reason for it, if you are inclined to believe like I sometimes am, is books recovering money from people betting Holly Holm at 10-1 vs. Ronda Rousey when the former KTFO'd the latter).  This means favorites, now, are running 20 games under .500 against the spread:  58-78-10.  That means, if you bet 1 unit on every favorite this season, you'd be -25 1/4 units at this point, or about an average of 2.5 units lost every week.
  • Similarly, betting the over was also costly this week:  Only THREE games went over (Chicago-St. Louis, Washington-New Orleans, and Arizona-Seattle on Sunday night).  Two or three more pushed, depending on where you could get them, and they were all late games.  Minnesota-Oakland and Kansas City-Denver both pushed directly.  New England-New York Giants was under at a good number of places and pushed at the rest.  That 3-8-3 or 3-9-2 pushes the season to somewhere between 71-67-8 to 71-72-3 for the over, depending on where you shopped.

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