Three MAJOR storylines played through this week other than the two openly rigged end results. We'll get to those in a bit.
- Lowest week of the year at 41.64 points per game. (45.38 last year)
- Per-game average for the 10 weeks down to 46.452. (46.680 last year)
- 186 penalties in the 14 games this week (a little more than 13 a game, and it's coming down)
- Cliffhangers: 3 (the two openly rigged ones in the post below (NE and Jacksonville) and Tampa with a touchdown late by... Jameis Winston.
- 5 more decided by one score, and 2 more than that were within one score at some point in the fourth quarter.
- For the season: Cliffhangers: 36/146 (24.66%) (Last year: 19.05%)
- Decided by one score: 81/146 (55.48%) (Last year: 39.46%)
- Within one score at some point in the fourth quarter: 101/146 (69.18%) (Last year: 62.59%)
Now, for the three big stories of the week, and I do have to think any one of these could be historic, but all three???
- Only THREE home teams won in a fourteen-game schedule. It's probably going to take some research to find out, and no one is saying -- but I would be shocked if that's not a record for a 14-game schedule that the home team only goes 3-11! That puts the home team season record to 81-62 (.566). (Last year: .6215)
- Only TWO favorites covered: Pittsburgh covered a touchdown against Cleveland. Carolina was gifted one, only favored 3.5 over Tennessee. That 2-12 record may be the best week ever for Vegas against favorites (and one possible reason for it, if you are inclined to believe like I sometimes am, is books recovering money from people betting Holly Holm at 10-1 vs. Ronda Rousey when the former KTFO'd the latter). This means favorites, now, are running 20 games under .500 against the spread: 58-78-10. That means, if you bet 1 unit on every favorite this season, you'd be -25 1/4 units at this point, or about an average of 2.5 units lost every week.
- Similarly, betting the over was also costly this week: Only THREE games went over (Chicago-St. Louis, Washington-New Orleans, and Arizona-Seattle on Sunday night). Two or three more pushed, depending on where you could get them, and they were all late games. Minnesota-Oakland and Kansas City-Denver both pushed directly. New England-New York Giants was under at a good number of places and pushed at the rest. That 3-8-3 or 3-9-2 pushes the season to somewhere between 71-67-8 to 71-72-3 for the over, depending on where you shopped.
No comments:
Post a Comment