And now, the AFC:
AFC West:
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-12, -2.704):
Massive Pythagorean thought of improvement here, and they still have
some pieces. But this team is playing in a soccer stadium in Carson
which seats THIRTY THOUSAND. Will the last two or three Charger fans
please turn off the lights on this debacle? That's the thing: The
NFL is a BUSINESS. There are not enough Charger fans to justify the
continuance of this team, especially if it flounders in the new
stadium in two years.
But to effectively be relegated to a
30,000-seat soccer stadium (probably filled with mostly fans of the
other team!) should tell you about the relevance of the Chargers.
As a result, anyone thinking the
Chargers are a dark horse: Stop it. Now. Please.
DENVER (9-7, -0.078): You know the
mighty have fallen when they get Brock Ostweiler back. I hope they
enjoyed the Peyton Manning Retirement Tour, because they still aren't
going to have much else positive to deal with. They'll keep teams
honest and probably 9-7 again, but no real consideration beyond that.
KANSAS CITY (12-4, +1.927): And if you
think that Pythagorean is generous, just wait til you see Oakland's.
The biggest beneficiaries to Derek Carr's late-season injury, and one
of the most rabid home fan bases. That said, especially given the
realities of the AFC (and especially of the aforementioned Raiders,
which I will get to next), I do find it hard to believe that Kansas
City would get any more than the division, almost because someone has
to win it.
OAKLAND (12-4, +3.268): The largest
Pythagorean, and not close, of the last three years. Would normally
indicate a regression to about 8-8 or so, but I do want people to
consider one thing: If Oakland goes up before the stadium outside
Mandalay Bay completes in two years, the Raiders might not even be a
relevant consideration for Las Vegas when they get there in
2019-2020. The political backdrop that this season is going to go
with in the background is going to be insane, and might well be as
relevant as the on-the-field stuff going on. If Oakland goes up
before the Raiders get out to Vegas (and all the factors are there
for it to happen), it could get ugly and fast.
DIVISIONALS: AFC East, NFC East. Not
many favors here, you get New England and a bunch of teams that could
do something...
PREDICTION
Oakland 12-4 (but Derek Carr better
stay healthy)
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 8-8
LA Chargers 5-11
AFC North:
CLEVELAND (1-15, -2.496): As I've said
on a number of occasions, this team has failed and needs to be
folded. I think Bottlegate basically ended relevant professional
football in Cleveland, and the fact of the matter is that I do think
Ohio State would beat these guys on a consistent basis. There are at
least a half a dozen candidates for 2-14 or worse this year. This is
one of them, Pythagorean aside.
BALTIMORE (8-8, -0.627): Still
probably living off a degree of past laurels and coasting a bit.
CINCINNATI (6-9-1, -1.796): Big down
year for Cincinnati, and some people believe there'll be another.
Especially those who believe that Pittsburgh is going to get a push,
but that would require New England switching out or down. And
Vontaze Burfict is suspended again.
PITTSBURGH (11-5, +1.147): If
anything, probably the best chance to beat New England (the last game
of three-game road trip, Sunday nighter as well). That said, though,
unless their conduct issues can be brought down a step or two, I
don't see them getting past New England, at least when it counts.
DIVISIONALS: NFC North, AFC South.
Some definite hay to be made there (Chicago, Jacksonville, none of
the teams in the South are THAT strong)...
PREDICTION
Pittsburgh 11-5
Cincinnati 10-6
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 4-12
AFC South
JACKSONVILLE (3-13, -2.877): Another
team that really just needs to go away. Football has never really
worked in Jacksonville, and the eleven wins out of the last 48 tell
you all you need to know about that.
TENNESSEE (9-7, +0.925): Five wins the
two previous seasons made last year a surprise, and are leading some
to believe that the Titans may make some noise. Why? Marcus
Mariota??? About all I could see on marketing that, but this is not
a strong division and there's no real reason to believe it's going to
strengthen...
INDIANAPOLIS (8-8, -0.448): …
especially with Andrew Luck still on the shelf.
HOUSTON (9-7, +2.515): Pretty much got
handed the division, even with Watt out most of the year. The
offense, pretty much non-existant (the 279 points only worsened by
three teams – and, as bad as the Jets are going to be this year,
they got 264 last year!!). I mean, yes, the defense “putts for
dough”, but, especially in a sports-entertainment environment like
the NFL, you do need to “drive for show” to get there.
DIVISIONALS: AFC North, NFC West.
Ergh... A lot of shit football to be played between a lot of teams
without really much going for them (Jacksonville, the Niners, the
Rams, and Cleveland abjectly stink – while Indy, Houston, Arizona,
Tennessee, Baltimore, and maybe Cincinnati are on that tier of
“bleh”).
PREDICTION
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 9-7
Indianapolis 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12
AFC East
NEW YORK JETS (5-11, +0.508): …
Good God.
That offense may not even be a
high-school level offense this year. They are going to be one of the
youngest teams in the league.
They may have a ways to go to reach the
levels of the 1992 Seahawks, with 140 points. But there is serious
consideration they may not win a game at all this year. There is
actually thought the team is actively attempting to 0-16 this season.
As in 0-16, even getting to play
the Jaguars and Browns.
BUFFALO BILLS (7-9, -1.880): Suggests
improvement, but, at some point, you need someone that the league can
put on those advertisements, encouraging people to want to watch the
next week's game and wonder exactly who this sports-entertainment
league is going to sell you with the Buffalo Bills.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-6, +2.433): Who now
have two much larger concerns than Ryan Tannehill's injury on their
minds. Irma, and no bye week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2, +1.307):
There's a reason I put money down on the over 12 ½, the Super Bowl,
and the undefeated season.
First, you have to consider the
question I began asking myself after the Draft. Why would Tom Brady
and Bill Belichick come back for another year, now that both have
accomplished everything the NFL has to offer them except finishing
off the 19-0 this time?
Second, consider any other options you
might have, even down to the level of who wins the Super Bowl.
There's a reason, and not just the betting public, that the bookies
put an absurd 12 ½ on New England this year, two full games ahead of
ANY other NFL team.
Third, consider several angles the
league actually can use with these guys. They dispatch Atlanta again
on a big early-season run (They are NOT losing to New Orleans, FOX
Sports. Stop it.), run through Oakland, and basically get to that
last road game against Pittsburgh. And then consider what happens if
the Giants are healthy and disciplined enough.
Fourth, Donald Fucking Oompa-Loompa
Trump. “We are all Patriots.”
DIVISIONALS; AFC West, NFC South Lots
of beef to deal with (Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City, anyone who has
to go to Denver here).
PREDICTION
New England 16-0 (This league really is
New England with no Plan B. Brady goes down, the season goes
chaotic.)
Buffalo 9-7
Miami 7-9
New York Jets 0-16
NEW ENGLAND wins the Super Bowl.
Oakland is the #2 seed, Pittsburgh the
3, Houston the 4.
Kansas City and Cincinnati are the
wildcards.
