Thursday, September 7, 2017

2017 Super Fraud NFL Preview Part II: The AFC, or: New England and Everybody Else.

And now, the AFC:

AFC West:

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-12, -2.704): Massive Pythagorean thought of improvement here, and they still have some pieces. But this team is playing in a soccer stadium in Carson which seats THIRTY THOUSAND. Will the last two or three Charger fans please turn off the lights on this debacle? That's the thing: The NFL is a BUSINESS. There are not enough Charger fans to justify the continuance of this team, especially if it flounders in the new stadium in two years.

But to effectively be relegated to a 30,000-seat soccer stadium (probably filled with mostly fans of the other team!) should tell you about the relevance of the Chargers.

As a result, anyone thinking the Chargers are a dark horse: Stop it. Now. Please.

DENVER (9-7, -0.078): You know the mighty have fallen when they get Brock Ostweiler back. I hope they enjoyed the Peyton Manning Retirement Tour, because they still aren't going to have much else positive to deal with. They'll keep teams honest and probably 9-7 again, but no real consideration beyond that.

KANSAS CITY (12-4, +1.927): And if you think that Pythagorean is generous, just wait til you see Oakland's. The biggest beneficiaries to Derek Carr's late-season injury, and one of the most rabid home fan bases. That said, especially given the realities of the AFC (and especially of the aforementioned Raiders, which I will get to next), I do find it hard to believe that Kansas City would get any more than the division, almost because someone has to win it.

OAKLAND (12-4, +3.268): The largest Pythagorean, and not close, of the last three years. Would normally indicate a regression to about 8-8 or so, but I do want people to consider one thing: If Oakland goes up before the stadium outside Mandalay Bay completes in two years, the Raiders might not even be a relevant consideration for Las Vegas when they get there in 2019-2020. The political backdrop that this season is going to go with in the background is going to be insane, and might well be as relevant as the on-the-field stuff going on. If Oakland goes up before the Raiders get out to Vegas (and all the factors are there for it to happen), it could get ugly and fast.

DIVISIONALS: AFC East, NFC East. Not many favors here, you get New England and a bunch of teams that could do something...

PREDICTION

Oakland 12-4 (but Derek Carr better stay healthy)
Kansas City 11-5
Denver 8-8
LA Chargers 5-11

AFC North:

CLEVELAND (1-15, -2.496): As I've said on a number of occasions, this team has failed and needs to be folded. I think Bottlegate basically ended relevant professional football in Cleveland, and the fact of the matter is that I do think Ohio State would beat these guys on a consistent basis. There are at least a half a dozen candidates for 2-14 or worse this year. This is one of them, Pythagorean aside.

BALTIMORE (8-8, -0.627): Still probably living off a degree of past laurels and coasting a bit.

CINCINNATI (6-9-1, -1.796): Big down year for Cincinnati, and some people believe there'll be another. Especially those who believe that Pittsburgh is going to get a push, but that would require New England switching out or down. And Vontaze Burfict is suspended again.

PITTSBURGH (11-5, +1.147): If anything, probably the best chance to beat New England (the last game of three-game road trip, Sunday nighter as well). That said, though, unless their conduct issues can be brought down a step or two, I don't see them getting past New England, at least when it counts.

DIVISIONALS: NFC North, AFC South. Some definite hay to be made there (Chicago, Jacksonville, none of the teams in the South are THAT strong)...

PREDICTION

Pittsburgh 11-5
Cincinnati 10-6
Baltimore 7-9
Cleveland 4-12

AFC South

JACKSONVILLE (3-13, -2.877): Another team that really just needs to go away. Football has never really worked in Jacksonville, and the eleven wins out of the last 48 tell you all you need to know about that.

TENNESSEE (9-7, +0.925): Five wins the two previous seasons made last year a surprise, and are leading some to believe that the Titans may make some noise. Why? Marcus Mariota??? About all I could see on marketing that, but this is not a strong division and there's no real reason to believe it's going to strengthen...

INDIANAPOLIS (8-8, -0.448): … especially with Andrew Luck still on the shelf.

HOUSTON (9-7, +2.515): Pretty much got handed the division, even with Watt out most of the year. The offense, pretty much non-existant (the 279 points only worsened by three teams – and, as bad as the Jets are going to be this year, they got 264 last year!!). I mean, yes, the defense “putts for dough”, but, especially in a sports-entertainment environment like the NFL, you do need to “drive for show” to get there.

DIVISIONALS: AFC North, NFC West. Ergh... A lot of shit football to be played between a lot of teams without really much going for them (Jacksonville, the Niners, the Rams, and Cleveland abjectly stink – while Indy, Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, Baltimore, and maybe Cincinnati are on that tier of “bleh”).

PREDICTION

Houston 10-6
Tennessee 9-7
Indianapolis 5-11
Jacksonville 4-12

AFC East

NEW YORK JETS (5-11, +0.508): …

Good God.

That offense may not even be a high-school level offense this year. They are going to be one of the youngest teams in the league.

They may have a ways to go to reach the levels of the 1992 Seahawks, with 140 points. But there is serious consideration they may not win a game at all this year. There is actually thought the team is actively attempting to 0-16 this season.

As in 0-16, even getting to play the Jaguars and Browns.

BUFFALO BILLS (7-9, -1.880): Suggests improvement, but, at some point, you need someone that the league can put on those advertisements, encouraging people to want to watch the next week's game and wonder exactly who this sports-entertainment league is going to sell you with the Buffalo Bills.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-6, +2.433): Who now have two much larger concerns than Ryan Tannehill's injury on their minds. Irma, and no bye week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2, +1.307): There's a reason I put money down on the over 12 ½, the Super Bowl, and the undefeated season.

First, you have to consider the question I began asking myself after the Draft. Why would Tom Brady and Bill Belichick come back for another year, now that both have accomplished everything the NFL has to offer them except finishing off the 19-0 this time?

Second, consider any other options you might have, even down to the level of who wins the Super Bowl. There's a reason, and not just the betting public, that the bookies put an absurd 12 ½ on New England this year, two full games ahead of ANY other NFL team.

Third, consider several angles the league actually can use with these guys. They dispatch Atlanta again on a big early-season run (They are NOT losing to New Orleans, FOX Sports. Stop it.), run through Oakland, and basically get to that last road game against Pittsburgh. And then consider what happens if the Giants are healthy and disciplined enough.

Fourth, Donald Fucking Oompa-Loompa Trump. “We are all Patriots.”

DIVISIONALS; AFC West, NFC South Lots of beef to deal with (Atlanta, Oakland, Kansas City, anyone who has to go to Denver here).

PREDICTION

New England 16-0 (This league really is New England with no Plan B. Brady goes down, the season goes chaotic.)
Buffalo 9-7
Miami 7-9
New York Jets 0-16

NEW ENGLAND wins the Super Bowl.

Oakland is the #2 seed, Pittsburgh the 3, Houston the 4.

Kansas City and Cincinnati are the wildcards.

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