Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Week 5 NFL 2017 Score Report: Now that the NFL is falling in line, normalcy?

A number of developments appear to indicate the NFL is willing to buckle to Donald Trump's demands.

I think that has a number of not-so-obvious ramifications, given the present political and social climate.

However, one indication I am getting of this possibly starting up can be found in a more normalizing pattern of the NFL in Week Five.  The rest of this will be handled in it's own article.

With that, the Week Five Score Report:
  • Week 5 Score Average:  43.36 this year.  Last year:  44.64  Two years ago:  46.29
  • Five week total average:  43.90 this year.  Last year:  45.38.  Two years ago:  46.26
  • BAD week for the home teams this week:  Only 4-10!!!  Last two years, Week 5 home teams were 7-7.
  • But what that means is, five weeks in, for the first time I can remember tracking, home teams actually have a LOSING RECORD!  Home teams are 37-38 in the NFL so far this year.  Last year they were 41-35, two years ago they were 42-34.
  • Favorites were 8-6 both ways this week.  That makes 34-43 against the number and 46-31 straight up. Last year, they were only one game below .500 through five weeks against the number and 40-30 straight up.
  • Team with more penalties was 8-5 this week, with one game ending even.  That means that the team committing more penalties is now three games over .500.
  • This means that trends indicate that home teams and teams committing fewer fouls are LOSING more than winning.
  • Here's where we get to the normalization part.  This week, only 2 games ended non-competitively and only a third ended with the margin outside one score in which the game was within one score in the 4th quarter.
  • 11 of the 14 games were within one score at the final margin,  three Cliffhangers, 4 Last Chance Misses.
  • So that makes 15 Cliffhangers for the year in 4 weeks.  Still below 20%.  14 last year (Week 5 2016 had one), 19 two years ago (Week 5 2015 had six!).
  • 40 of the 77 games have now finished within one score.  28 of the last 46 after only 12 of the first 29.  
  • Last year, the NFL broke a record in that regard, with 58 games within one score at some point in the fourth quarter.  This year?  50.
  • 15 Last Chance Misses through five weeks.  Last year?  24.
And, for the important numbers, from Sports Media Watch:
  • The Cowboys made it 5-for-5, as their slot, for the fifth week in a row, was up in ratings -- about 15%
  • However, from their meeting in 2016 in the regular season, down 16%.
  • The Sunday nighter was up 4% from last year, but that was against a presidential debate.  Down almost 20% from two years ago.
  • The early windows for both CBS (single) and FOX (early of double) were down 16-17%.

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