The NFL had a hangover too, I see...

Usually, those football fans needing a fix after they had way too much to drink on New Year's Eve have what I call the "Hangover Bowls" at about 9 AM Pacific on New Year's morning.

Well, it being a Sunday, the NFL took over.  And already some interesting things happened:

• Of the nine games in this "Hangover" window, six were completed in under 3 hours.
• Of the six, only ONE (ATL-ARI, two eliminated teams) was finished with a margin of one score.
• The Over only hit in ONE game out of the six.
• The New York Giants are in the playoffs.  Meaning now only one NFC spot remains, as...
• Tampa clinches today to win the NFC Suck, meaning Carolina and New Orleans now violate the First Rule:   "DON'T GET ELIMINATED!!!"

As of the end of the first window, with Tampa's win, here's where we stand/stood in the NFC:

• Three of the NFC divisions are clinched:  Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Washington have won their divisions.
• Philadelphia, Dallas, and the Giants have clinched playoff spots.
• Philadelphia clinches the NFC East (and the #1 seed, with the Week 2 24-7 win over Minnesota) with a win next week over the New York Giants OR a Washington win over Dallas and a San Francisco loss.
• Dallas wins the NFC East (by division record tiebreaker) and the #1 seed (HTH 40-3 win over Minnesota) if they beat Washington, the Giants beat Philly, San Francisco does not win out, and Minnesota does not beat both Green Bay in the late window today and Chicago next week.
• Minnesota needs to win out, not have San Francisco win out, and have Philadelphia lose next week to get the #1 seed.  (They would have the best record in the conference outright, and lose all tiebreakers to Dallas, Philly (HTH in both) and SF (conference record).)
• San Francisco wins the #1 seed if they win out and Philly loses to the Giants.
• And that's before we get to the final NFC wild card!

So here's where we have:

NFC East:  WSH 7-8-1

NFC North:  DET 8-8, GB 7-8 and playing Minnesota as I type.

NFC West:  SEA 7-8 and playing the Jets as I type.

Green Bay must win out, but they get the #7 if they do.  This would eliminate Detroit by some tiebreaker (probably common games) after a season split, a 4-2 division record for both, and the fact that Green Bay is not already eliminated.  Washington can't get to 9-8 with the tie, and Seattle has a worse conference record even if both win out.

Washington needs to beat Dallas, a Minnesota win over Green Bay today, Green Bay to beat Detroit next week, and Seattle not to win out.

Seattle needs a win and that Green Bay does not.

So, in the NFC:  The two NFC South games are not relevant.  The two NFC East games are relevant.  The two NFC West games are relevant.  SF for the #2 seed, SEA needs a win and that GB does not.  And both NFC North games are relevant.  MIN for seeding, GB/DET is big.

AFC:

Buffalo and Kansas City have won their divisions.

Buffalo is the #1 if they win out.  Kansas City is the #1 if they win next week and Buffalo does not win out.  Cincinatti is the #1 if they win out and Kansas City loses next week, because Cincy has wins over Buffalo and KC in that scenario.  Cincy and Buffalo Monday night.

Baltimore and the LA Chargers have playoff spots locked up.  Baltimore wins the division (AFC North)if they beat Cincinnati next week.

Jacksonville and Tennessee play next week -- win or go home (AFC Suck).

So, again, one spot to determine, the #7.

Easy part:  A Jets win this afternoon over Seattle eliminates the Raiders.  Because someone other than Buffalo in the AFC East has to get to nine wins in that case.

As of the end of the early games:

East:  Miami and New England are 8-8, Jets are 7-8.

North:  Pittsburgh is 7-8.

West:  Raiders eliminated.

New England is in with a win next week.  (HTH over Pittsburgh, Division record over the other AFC East teams, even if the Jets win today.)

Miami is in with a win and a Patriots loss.  (Division over the Jets, even if they win today.  Probably some sort of common games over NE.  HTH over Pittsburgh.)

Pittsburgh needs to win out and have both Miami and New England lose.

Jacksonville can get in as an 8-9 wild card, even if they lose to Tennessee, if the Jets lose this week and Miami and New England both lose next week and the Steelers lose a game.

Both AFC East games are relevant.  BAL-CIN is relevant for the division.  PIT game becomes relevant if they win tonight.  TEN-JAX is relevant.  KC-LV is relevant.  DEN-LAC is largely irrelevant.

There are ZERO absolute win or go home games on the Week 17 schedule.  The two closest candidates are Jacksonville/Tennessee (if TEN wins to win the division, Jacksonville is in if NE and MIA both lose, and PIT must lose either tonight or next week) and Green Bay/Detroit (if DET wins, SEA gets the #7 if they win).