First, the lines as of about 10 AM Pacific Tuesday, according to Caesar's Sportsbook:
Saturday afternoon: KC -8.5 Jacksonville, Total 53 Beware of ANY LINE over 7 with this NFL's scripting, even though this one SHOULD be a ROFLStomp.
Saturday night: PHI -7.5 NYG Total 48 Same principle, and you add the divisional aspect of this game as well.
Sunday early: BUF -5 CIN Total 48 I'll get to this in a second.
Sunday late: SF -3.5 DAL Total 46.5
You notice something in these matchups:
In the NFC, just like scripting Seattle-San Francisco in for the 2-7, you have two "traditional rivalry" matchups -- just aching for more Cliffhanger cheese.
In the AFC, you have the "rematch" of the Damar Hamlin Game (Which probably should still be neutral site, because Cincy would've hosted this game otherwise -- but the fact they're not might tell you something, shouldn't it...)
And then you have plucky Jacksonville getting fed feet first into the wood-chipper which is Kansas City.
So here are the Political Rankings for the Divisional Round:
8) Jacksonville
An easy last place here, simply because of the fact that their time has not yet come, on top of the fact that you'd really have to sell Jacksonville, as a market, as a championship market. Think "Green Bay of the South" here, in the urban NFL. Do NOT sleep on that line, though. I would not be surprised if the script ends up, say, Jacksonville loses within a score on a Last Chance Miss on an Onside Miss in the final two minutes. I also would not be surprised if it's a ROFLStomp, but the fact is that Jacksonville, to my end, is the only one of the eight teams I cannot make a case for to win the Super Bowl. Trevor Lawrence's marketability? Maybe, but give it a couple years of seasoning first!
7) Cincinnati
Yes, a lot of people are speaking up on that the defending AFC Champions could repeat. I don't see it happening due to circumstances, and I think it's very important, right now, to state that I think there are two major circumstances as to why I believe Cincy has no shot here:
First is the Damar angle. I do think that's going to be a MAJOR play for the NFL in this playoff series -- perhaps even about as obviously as the Peyton Manning Retirement Tour, etc. and so forth and so on.
Second is far more insidious, but it has come up in the media. There is back-channel talk in New York that the NFL is actually taking a look at making the conference championship games neutral-site permanently, and this being a trial balloon for that. I can't tell you how bad of an idea this is, but the fact is that the NFL doesn't care.
Case for the Super Bowl: Combination of Services Rendered and you have been at least pumping this team and Joe Burrow up more than a bit the last 13 months.
BUT: Not only does the NFL have a possible plan to make all the conference title games neutral-site in the future, but there is this little #3 in Buffalo...
6) New York Giants
Really, if this wasn't the New York market, the only question would be would they be above or below Jacksonville. Thing is, as inconsistent as this team has been, they got their way through the "Group of Death" division in the NFL and who knows from there? Your final four in the NFC is four "traditional" powers: Dallas, Giants, SF, and Philly.
Case for the Super Bowl: New York market, and not much more -- but that is quite a bit.
BUT: That's all they have, quite literally.
5) San Francisco
And the margin between the other three NFC teams is razor-thin, and you could pretty much make a case that SF (or any of these five teams, for that matter) could be anywhere from here to #1, because, back end of the season, this has been the best team, and they've quietly made a lot of hay in the playoffs recently: Super Bowl appearance, owners of the Packers, etc. and so forth.
The only problems are several-fold: Green Bay's not here for SF's freebie, Dallas has a demonstrated national ratings bump and the most fans and the most merch moved -- and ask Arizona if that doesn't become a determining factor in the Super Bowl decision.
Case for the Super Bowl: Back end of the season, this is the best team in the NFL. They have racked up a nice playoff record in recent years.
BUT: They are probably about the only one of the five teams left which doesn't have a compelling story -- this would be more a "shoot" championship, and you've got another case in that in the NFC and at least one in the AFC.
4) Kansas City
You catch my mood, and this post could be radically different.
Every case in the world can be made for this to be the Political at least #2. And, frankly, they are one photo op away from being at least that, if not #1 -- but that photo op involves another team, as I'll get to.
More on this when I do #3, because these two are largely tied together -- not necessarily a Dallas-KC Super Bowl package deal, but I'll get to why they are here.
Case for the Super Bowl: The Mahomes Effect. The league has been trying to make Patrick Mahomes The New Man in the NFL....
BUT: See below...
3) Dallas
Most fans, most merch, most valuable franchise, best ratings...
Basically, if you wanted a money pick for the championship, it's Dallas in every conceivable sense of the word.
Case for the Super Bowl: From the cheerleaders to Jerry Jones, THE money franchise in these playoffs.
BUT:
Kansas City and Dallas are the two teams, more than ANY in the NFL, who can't seem to get out of their own way with the indiscipline off the field -- and far more than just the players.
Andy Reid is a man incapable of leading an ant army, and I really don't think I need to give the disgust as to the actions toward one son (more, against him) and the actions by the other (three years in prison). The final straw, to me, on KC this year, was the Frank Clark suspension. I believe KC wins this week -- next week becomes a function of whether the photo op I will mention below happens.
Dallas has finally been peeking it's head out of the NFL doghouse the last couple of years, but they still have one thing or another which hamstrings them -- this year, it's the Sam Williams reckless driving arrest warrant which will finish it off if it doesn't happen for them. They've already got their own Dan Snyder scandal with the reports of upskirting in the Jerry Jones office, so there's that too...
2) Philadelphia
Case for the Super Bowl: Week 1 to 17, the best team in the NFC. And they have something Dallas doesn't -- a fairly clean discipline slate. For 14-3, this is an awfully under-the-table operation. You don't expect them, but there they are, week after week.
BUT: Sans that, however, can you come up with one real reason the NFL would actually push this team? I'll wait here.
1) Buffalo
Case for the Super Bowl: Damar Hamlin.
BUT: Damar Hamlin.
This is the photo-op I'm talking about. That, basically, at some point between now and the Super Bowl, Damar Hamlin comes out as a captain for Buffalo for the coin toss.
There's a LARGE "IF", though: If he does it before the Super Bowl, I don't think Buffalo is The Choice. If they do it this week for the "rematch", put Kansas City in this spot. If they do it next week for the AFC title game, come back to me for the NFC matchup.
The fact is two-fold: Not only does the NFL make a lot of hay off of team tragedies, but there is an increasing hue and call to actually have the world see Damar Hamlin in public to dissuade the anti-vaxxers from believing he's either already died (and the NFL is covering it up) or is too damaged not to have the plug pulled at some point after the Super Bowl (and the NFL is covering THAT up).
So it's definitely in the NFL's interest to put Damar Hamlin out there, if they can -- the only question is: When will it be to the greatest advantage of the NFL to do so? If Buffalo is The Choice to win the Super Bowl, you know when and where. If not...
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