Monday, September 17, 2018

2018 NFL Week Two Scoring Report: Defense is Outlawed

Or at least pretty close...  Offshooting from the ESPN article on the Packers openly wondering if they are allowed to play defense (Answer:  No.):
  • 46.3125 points per game Week 2.  (40.188 last year, 45.25 two years ago, 47.75 three years ago)
Two weeks in a row now.  A touchdown (well, a six-point touchdown in both cases) more scoring per game than last year.

Last week was 6.75, this week was 6.15.
  • Meaning that the two week average per-game of 47.0625 is 6 1/2 points more than the 40.613 last year.  2016 was a tick over 45, 2015 was 46.5.
Maybe not QUITE as much as might've been proposed, but it's clear the rules are having a negative impact on defenses, as scoring is heading back toward mid-decade records.
  • First six games of the week on the board, home teams were 2-4.  No home team lost again, the Packers drew the Vikings for 11-4-1 this week.  (Last year:  9-7,  Two years ago:  10-6)
  • Meaning we now have 19-11-2 (0.625) for the home teams this year so far.  (Last year:  16-15, two years ago:  17-15)
I do believe the NFL is still trying to find it's footing, so it's no surprise to me the home-cooking (sans the big 1 Eastern start in Green Bay) is flowing pretty good right now.  We'll see if it holds up.
  • Vegas has officially adjusted for the new rules:  The Over was 8-8 this week for 17-15 for the year.  Last year:  4-9-3 for 9-19-3.
  • Average total on the line for the Vegas number this week:  45.375  Last year:  44.9.  (Which is why the bettors took a beating the first two weeks of last year on the Over.)
  • Where they DID take a beating this year's Week 2:  Against the spread!!  5-11 against the number, 8-7 straight up.  Last year:  7-9 against the number, 11-5 straight up.
  • Two weeks total:  12-19-1 ATS, 18-12(-2) SU.  
Meaning the favorites are winning at less of a percentage than the home teams!!
  • The team with more penalties was 5-7 this week, 11-13 for the year.  (Last year:  6-9 and 15-13)
  • Only 206 accepted penalties this week, an average of less than 13.  Last year had 228, 14.5
  • Two week total:  461 in 32 games this year (14.4 per game)  Last year:  435 in 31 games (14.0)
The refs are still the main story.  We'll see how long that goes.
  • 4 Cliffhangers this week:  The 2nd tie (MIN-GB) also had a late score in the last two minutes for a double,  NO-CLE had a go-ahead CLE TD at 1:16 followed by a winning NO FG at :21 for a double, TEN beat HOU with a winning FG at 1:00, and DEN beat OAK with a winning FG at 6 seconds.
  • Total of 5 for the year.  Last year had 3 Cliffhangers in Week 2 after none in Week 1.
  • 11 of the 16 games finished within 8 points this week.  That's 21 of the 32 for the year.  Last year:  8 in Week 2 for a total of 12.
  • Non-competitive games:  3 this week, 7 for the two.  Last year:  8 in Week 2, 14 total.
Interesting statistic:  One of those four games was Jacksonville beating New England 31-20.  It was the first time New England had lost a non-competitive game (a game which, at no point in the fourth quarter, the margin was eight points or less!) since Week 4 of the 2016 season to Buffalo, 16-0.

But that was the final game of the Brady suspension.

The last time a Tom Brady-headed New England team went down in non-competitive fashion:  You have to go back to Week 4 of 2014 when Kansas City ran them over 41-14.
  • Plenty of Last Chance Misses:  The only Cliffhanger which didn't have at least one was Denver and Oakland.  Carolina had ball in the air at the gun to tie Atlanta.  Both the Sunday nighter and the Monday nighter had late onside kicks missed.
  • 6 total for the week, making 12 of the 32 games this year with an opportunity to tie or win the game in the last two minutes or overtime.
  • Last year had 4 in Week 2, 6 total.

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