Yes, Indianapolis plays tomorrow, and that's important for at least kayfabe, but the position is locked either way.
But we can do the AFC either way on Indianapolis (San Francisco, however, is a bit more complicated on both ends, so that has to wait until after MNF)...
Kayfabe:
New England and Denver are 12-3 and both IN THE PLAYOFFS.
1) Denver (12-3, IN, common game tiebreaker over New England)
It is beginning to look like Denver-Chargers is going to be the Week 18 finale. The Chargers can win the West with two wins. Denver MUST beat the Chargers or hope the Chargers lose next week. And that's just the division.
2) New England (12-3, IN, loses common game tiebreaker to Denver)
New England needs two wins and a Denver loss (either game) for the #1 seed. They split with the 11-4 Bills, so every win counts.
3) Jacksonville (11-4, IN if Indianapolis loses Monday night)
They have wins over the Chargers and Broncos. New England somewhat complicates things for them, but two wins would give Jacksonville a conference record tiebreaker over everybody not named the Chargers or Texans. They split with the 10-5 Texans, same drill as the Patriots.
4) Pittsburgh (9-6, WINS THE AFC NORTH with a win or a Baltimore loss, but is out if they lose twice and Baltimore wins twice)
And yes, Lions fans, that was Offensive Pass Interference on the final play there.
5) LA Chargers (11-4, wins conference record tiebreaker over Buffalo because Buffalo has one more conference loss in playing one more AFC game already (8-2 vs. 8-3), IN if Indianapolis loses Monday night)
The Jaguars won the meeting between the two, however. They need probably two wins, a New England loss, and a Jacksonville loss for the #1 seed.
Win next week, Chargers-Broncos is for the whole shooting match in the West no matter what the Broncos do next week.
6) Buffalo (11-4, loses conference record tiebreaker to the Chargers, IN if Indianapolis loses Monday night)
Split the Patriots, but lost another game in the division, so they need two wins and a Patriots loss to explore further tiebreakers in the East, which would be their only path to the #1 seed -- win that tiebreaker (which is too deep to look at, hope the Chargers win the West at 13-4, and survive the Chargers and maybe the Jaguars.
7) Houston (10-5)
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:
Indianapolis (8-6, pretty much must win Monday Night, wild card only)
A loss would mean they would have to win next week, Houston would have to lose, and then Indy would have to beat Houston Week 18.
Baltimore (7-8, division only, must win twice and have Pittsburgh lose twice)
Political:
1) New England
2) Denver
Still have the Patriots a neck in front of the Broncos because of name and the fact that Drake Maye really DOES appear to be on the short list of a mega-push this year. MVP may come down to the two (White) quarterbacks.
3) Pittsburgh
As much as Jacksonville has two games on them and Pittsburgh is probably going to face a team with a better record than them at their home field on wild-card weekend, it can and will not be ignored that, for all intents and purposes, MAGA COVIDIOT-8 is going to be in the playoffs. Yes, I do believe, as a result of Aaron Rodgers' political beliefs, they've got a better shot than the Chargers.
Somehow. As UrinatingTree says, the bullshit IS real.
4) Buffalo
Very quiet 11-4, and it really does sound to me like they're being held in the back pocket, just in case. As much as Buffalo has made a lot of regular season noise, though, other teams have gotten more of a push.
Not considering:
LA Chargers due to LA, and the fact that their fanbase probably resembles Phoenix' the one year they made the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville because of a Black quarterback and several other more "patriotic" (read: White) alternatives. The geography fits and the league themselves have probably wanted to push Trevor Lawrence, but I don't think this one is in their hands at all.
Houston, about the same problem as Jacksonville, and about the only people who really know the Strouds are those who know Tom Grossi memes, such as myself.
Indianapolis has been pulled for some odd reason, and Baltimore is all but out.
ELIMINATED: Jets, Dolphins, Browns, Bengals, Titans, Chiefs, and Raiders.