My view of the current 2018 NFL Political Rankings

In short, I think the league IS at least playing at a rewrite of the season.

In any good story (and I should know this, having recently completed my Nanowrimo for 2018), the author or authors of the story have to create a certain degree of doubt.

Well, with New England, Pittsburgh, the Rams, and Houston all losing this week, and with this week being the second-lowest scoring week of the year per game (and last week being the lowest), several things are becoming clear:

• After Week 12, the average NFL game was over 48 1/3 points a game.
• The last two weeks, that average has plummeted to 43.2 for the two weeks.
• In the first 12 weeks, there were only nine NFL games which did not reach a 30-point total -- and no more than two in any given week.
• Last two weeks:  Five, including both the Sunday and Monday nighters this week.
• Another number of note:  First 12 weeks of the year, there was 2282 accepted penalties in the NFL over the 176 games played to that point, an average of 12.97.
• The last two weeks, 16 games each:  260 (the highest average of the year:  16.25) in Week 13, 244 (15.25 a game) last week.

This would merit further investigation, but one does have to wonder if that means players are going to start roughing offenses up to turn these 42-39 shootouts into 15-6 defensive fests.

But this does have to start asking real questions as to where in the tea leaves the NFL is going right now...

So, here's my GUESS....

AFC

7.  Miami

I've been suspicious for some time as to whether the NFL is willing to push New England aside because of TB12 and Alex Guerrero and all that stuff.  I'm not willing to go quite that far, but the "Miami Miracle" (and real questions about why the Hell you'd put Gronkowski in the defensive backfield for it unless it was the designed result!) is at least a building block toward that end.  View them, for now, as an alternative if something big comes out.

6.  Indianapolis

I know Baltimore is in the position, but Indianapolis has the marketable name at the key position that the NFL might choose to exploit.  After starting the season 1-5, they've won six of seven and are one of the NFL's hottest teams.  I do expect them to get in the wildcard spot sooner than later.

5.  Pittsburgh

How in the bloody Hell do you expect to be taken seriously as anything (even a division champion) when you lose to a Raider team that the only question is not if they could lose to a college team, but how many?  The only way these Steelers win the AFC North is if there's no real alternative, and I expect the Chargers to run roughshod over them in the Wildcard round unless the Kansas City Screwjob starts in the regular season (read: this week) and the Chargers win the AFC West.

4.  Kansas City

Don't sleep on the possibility that the league will let the Chiefs win the division, then pull the rug out from under them afterward -- a la the Cowboys of the last couple of years.

They needed everything they could get their hands on to beat the Raiders, and then had their second-lowest scoring output of the year to squeak past the Ravens since the Kareem Hunt firing.

3.  Houston

Let's not forget:  Houston started 0-3 and has won nine of ten!!

But it's been a quiet 9-4, because they probably don't have any kind of "guns" the league can market outside of TJ Watt.  It's so quiet that you don't realize all four of those losses have been within one score.  Four more scores, the Houston Texans are 13-0 and nobody knows how!

If this were a more legit league, this could finally have been Houston's year.

2.  New England

See my Miami commentary.  I really don't think the NFL wants to push Brady all the way unless it is absolutely sure nothing will come of TB12 and Alex Guerrero.  Otherwise....

1.  LA Chargers

And this isn't just them -- and they need to beat Kansas City at Arrowhead this week to hold the position.  Part of the reason that I put them #1 in the AFC for the moment is the Rams' loss and the belief the league will ram at least one of the LA teams to win the Super Bowl to open the new stadium in September of next year.

Two HUGE games this week:  New England goes to Pittsburgh in the Jesse James Rematch.  The Chargers go to Arrowhead Thursday night...

Wait...  Thursday night actually gets a relevant game??????

NFC

The top five teams in the NFC have only 12 conference losses, and how many of those are to each other??

The four divisions and the byes are pretty much settled, and the only real mystery in the conference is whether New Orleans holds the #1 over the Rams and who ends up getting the consolation prize at #6...

5.  Chicago

If the MVP award were truly the Most Valuable Player, Khalil Mack wins it hands down.  The problem is, the league has four better options in the conference.

4.  Seattle

... and it's far closer from 1 to 4 than people might've thought a week or two ago.  It's too late for the division -- the Rams have clinched -- but the fact that Seattle has won four in a row and is probably staring 10-6 right in the face (barring a Chiefs rig-job that would give them 11-5!!) cannot be underestimated.  Roger Goodell likes a cult following.

3.  Dallas

Five in a row and a key game for both conferences with Indianapolis this week -- then two winnable games could get them 11-5 and then who knows...  This is the first year one can say without question that Dallas is out of the doghouse.  The only question from here is whether the league will exert one of the two better options.

2.  LA Rams

And this is paper-thin, but one cannot dispute the belief that, should the eventual game be held in New Orleans, the first thought is like the other game in New Orleans between the clubs.  (45-35 NO)

That said, gun to head, I still would pick Rams-Chargers as my Super Bowl, but that loss to the Bears, and especially how it was presented, is a question.

1.  New Orleans

So if they don't push Brady, is it time for Drew Brees to get one last ride?  I can't see New Orleans WINNING the Super Bowl unless the whole LA narrative gets tossed (but another Rams loss and the Chiefs beating the Chargers on Thursday would merit it's consideration!), but one cannot dispute that the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC DOES go through New Orleans -- and, unlike the AFC, that's far more important (given outside factors -- yes, Arrowhead's a bitch, but Kareem Hunt's video looms large over this league!).