Monday, October 1, 2018

2018 Week 4 NFL Score Report: In full control of the narrative...

  • Well, I think it's pretty clear.  How much of this is the new rules and rulings and how much of this was counterprogramming Game 163 and the Divisional Tiebreaker Games, I don't know.
  • But the NFL had one of it's highest scoring weeks on record, with an average game of 53.2 points a game.
  • Week 14 of 2013 was the highest scoring weekend in the history of the NFL.  859 points on a full schedule for an average of 53.69.  There were two bye teams this week, so one fewer game for 798 points.  If the Sunday nighter hadn't gotten only 40, we probably break the 53.69 record (needing only another 8 points).
  • The other MEGA NUMBER:  SEVEN Cliffhangers.  (This has happened before:  Week 4 of 2015 had 7.  Week 5 of that year had six more.  Week 8, six MORE  Also, Week 13 of 2015 had seven..)
That's right.  SEVEN of the fifteen games were decided with a tying or winning score in the last two minutes or one of the three overtime games.  Several had multiple:
  1. Kansas City solidified it's position as the early-season choice for the Rams' patsy in SB LIII(e) with a winning touchdown on Monday night to get to 4-0 over Denver in the last two minutes.
  2. Seattle beat Arizona with a field goal at the regulation gun.
  3. Cincinnati upset Atlanta with a touchdown at five seconds to go -- that game totaled 73!
  4. Dallas beat Detroit with a field goal three seconds left.
  5. That rigged debacle in Oakland had a DOUBLE.  After the second rig-job (the spotting), Oakland quickly drove for the TD + 2 to tie at :36.  It took until 1:46 to go in the OT for them to get the winning field goal.
  6. Tennessee upset Philly with a TRIPLE Cliffhanger.  Philly got a tying field goal to send it to overtime at :16.  Philly then won the toss and got a field goal after about a 4 minute drive.  After a defensive pass-interference call on 4th down extended the game for Tennessee, they get the winning TD at 17 seconds to go in the ten extra minutes.
  7. But the honors for the week, and damn near all-time, have to go to the third overtime game, Indianapolis and Houston.  A QUADRUPLE Cliffhanger, PLUS...
  • Indianapolis ties the game with a touchdown 45 seconds left in regulation.
  • Indy wins the OT toss, drives for a field goal in 4 minutes.
  • Houston then drives 4 minutes of it's own to square the game!
  • THEN, Indianapolis, in a move many in Indiana are still trying to figure out, goes for it on fourth down at their own 40.  They don't get it...
  • ... and Houston promptly wins it at the gun to get the final total to 71.
The four is probably a record.  (Only other two I can find with 4 were Week 8 2015 Carolina winning on MNF with a gun FG to send it to OT and three overtime field goals, and the one I'm about to mention.)

About the closest we've come to beating it was the Baltimore-Minnesota game in 2013 the NFL chronicles the end of in this YouTube video.
  • BAL TD to snag the lead 2:07 -- no Cliffhanger there.
  • MIN long running TD to retake the lead at 1:27
  • Ensuing kickoff returned for a Baltimore TD.  That's 2.
  • Next MIN drive:  SEVENTY NINE YARD TD swing pass (all run after the catch) 47 seconds.
  • Winning BAL TD with 4 seconds on the clock.
That's a quadruple and a fifth seven seconds from the line!!

Here's the rest of this wild week:
  • The season average is back to just a tick over 48.  Just a tick over 44 last year, 45 1/2 two years ago, 46 1/4 three years ago.
  • Home teams were 9-6 last week for 39-22-2.  (.635)  Problem is that the first seven to finish all won at home.  7-8 last year for 33-28.  7-7 two years ago for 34-28.
  • The Over was also 9-6, and now 34-29 makes the over a slight winning proposition for bettors if they consistently played it.  9-7 last year for still a game under .500.
  • First week for this year that the favorites came in decently.  8-6-1 against the number, 12-3 straight up.  27-34-2 against the number for the year.  39-22-2 straight up.
  • Four non-competitive games, 1 Last Chance Miss (Monday night!), and a total of nine games decided within eight points.
  • 13 Cliffhangers for the season.  (Yep, more Cliffhangers this week than the first three combined!)  Last two years had 12, three years ago also had 13!
  • 37 of the 63 games have finished 8 points or within.  29 last year.
  • 15 total Last Chance Misses.
  • Team with more penalties this week was 7-7 for 22-29.
And now for the most important numbers to the NFL, the early ratings numbers from Sports Media Watch:
  • Week 4 National up over 10% to a 12.3, but the 12.3 is the lowest National this year and not close.
  • Sunday Night was also a 12.3, and that was up 12%!
  • Singleheader for FOX didn't do so well, an 11.7, down 7%.  Highest Singleheader window of the year, though.
  • The Regional half of the CBS doubleheader only did a 9.2, but that was up 14%.

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