Thursday, December 21, 2017

Two reasons the NFL Fan of Today is just too damn stupid to get it...

Tolerance level:  About ZERO this holiday season.  Bah humbug.

So I have two things to show you that indicate how the NFL fanatic of today is just too stupid and gullible to get much of anything.

First, you know how much people talk about how much the NFL wants the last week to matter?  It's a centerpiece of a lot of what Brian Tuohy intelligently talks about every year.

Well, this year, it appears as if the NFL has thrown in the towel completely.

Thirteen teams, at this point, are absolutely eliminated from the playoffs, ENTERING WEEK SIXTEEN.  Green Bay (by Atlanta winning), Washington, Arizona, Tampa, San Francisco, Chicago, and the Giants in the NFC.   The Jets, Cincinnati, Denver, Houston, Indianapolis, and Cleveland in the AFC.

Meaning that gets us down to nineteen teams with relevant football to play.

Now, I go to a FiveThirtyEight post from earlier this week, and show that even that is not very good.

The first problem, for the three remaining teams on the outside looking in in the NFC, is that there are 5 teams 10-4 and better (the three teams in question are 8-6:  Dallas, Detroit, and Seattle). The sixth is 9-5 and cannot lose the conference tiebreaker to any of those three teams - the best they can do is tie with four conference losses.

This means that, for each of the three teams, they must win twice and:

Dallas:  Must get one other result:  Detroit must lose to Green Bay.

Seattle:  Must get at least two other results.  Atlanta and Detroit must lose.

Detroit:  Must get at least two other results.  Atlanta to lose to Carolina, the winner of Seattle and Dallas loses Week 17.

So the only relevant games in the NFC (and the only seeding I will be concerned with is #1 and #2 and the last:

MIN / GB Seeding
DAL/SEA Elimination
DET/CIN Elimination
ATL/NO Seeding/Elimination
OAK/PHI Seeding (and maybe still elimination for Oakland by Monday night)
LA Rams/TEN Seeding for both (path to elimination for Tennessee)

In the AFC, there are five remaining teams.

Tennessee is listed above.  Both of their games will be relevant.

Buffalo is also in decent shape, same scenario, except they have New England here in Week 16

The Chargers must win both and have KC lose both for the division or get seven other different results.


Miami needs two wins and five other different results. 

Oakland needs two wins and SEVEN other different results.

So here we are, relevant for Week 16...

BUF/NE Seeding and elimination
LA Chargers/NYJ, but only if KC loses , or the sum of Buffalo wins, Indianapolis wins, and the Rams win.
IND/BAL for seeding and perhaps to eliminate Miami, Oakland, and any wildcard shot for the Chargers...
PIT/HOU Seeding.

I count ten relevant games this week, and that number can shrink.

Will look into that more next week.

So what's the second one?

Well, I took to Reddit.  I know, big mistake.

I basically took another look at the Jesse James catch rule fiasco.  I've drawn a conclusion that should disturb any NFL fan:  The NFL has now gone beyond "going to ground" to maintain control, but now must "survive the ground".

This, to me, is a very important distinction, because it changes the rule and removes the sideline exemption.  If you don't believe me, remember that the rule speaks of "after initial contact with the ground".  James is already making initial contact with the ground long before the ball slips out.  In fact, he does turn up field to lunge for the goal line...

So it would now appear that there is a significant (small, but significant) time between "initial contact with the ground" and "catch".  Would this not mean the following are now both incomplete passes?

1) James, if he were downed with possession of the ball before he satisfies "catch"

and 2) Any player who falls out of bounds before satisfying "catch", because it would be the same animal as if he didn't get the two feet in in the first place.

This was the result.  Your NFL fandom, people!!


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