Monday, December 18, 2017

Several more NFL thoughts...

  • #MeToo has claimed it's first NFL owner.  The Carolina Panthers are for sale because of sexual and racial misconduct committed by principal owner Jerry Richardson.  Just days after an investigation was announced, it became quickly clear there was enough to oust Richardson as owner, and, Sunday (when they inexplicably won, when a loss would've opened up a number of NFL options), it was announced the team would go up for sale.
Hmmm...  Racist, misogynistic, North Carolina???  Why, he'd fit in perfectly!

This is almost certainly coming from above -- and, if I had to guess, he won't be the only NFL owner out this year.
  • Well, profitable day in Vegas for me -- 4-0 for the week, and that now makes 3 of the 4 cashable and the fourth is now gone from pretty much out to pretty much in.  The Packers (under 10.5) is already cashable, and they're 7-7 and now eliminated.  Detroit (over 7.5) is 8-6 with the win Saturday, that's cashable.  Seattle (under 10.5) got destroyed by the Rams for 8-6 and that's cashable.  New England (over 12.5), you know how that went, and that makes them 11-3 with the Bills and Jets at home and probably needing both to win home field.
  • Here's the current storylines.  AFC First:
  1. New England, 11-3 and the "win" over Pittsburgh.  Clinched AFC East.
  2. Pittsburgh, 11-3, clinched AFC North
  3. Jacksonville, 10-4 and has clinched a playoff berth.  A win/tie or a Tennessee loss/tie in the next two weeks wins the AFC South.  Jacksonville has a win over the Steelers, so another game flip in that in the last two weeks will give them the 2 seed.  They did not play New England.
  4. Kansas City at 8-6, a game clear, and a sweep over the Chargers
  5. Tennessee has one more conference win than Buffalo and Baltimore, but all three have the same number of losses (4) in the AFC, with all three teams 8-6.  So Tennessee is the 5.
  6. And the Buffalo/Baltimore tiebreak is still Strength of Victory, solidly in the Bills camp, so Buffalo is the 6.
Wildcard weekend would be Buffalo at Jacksonville, Tennessee at Kansas City.

NFC:
  1. Philadelphia:  12-2 and can do no worse than the #2.  Won NFC East and a bye.  Philadelphia must lose to the Cowboys in Week 17 at minimum, or Minnesota can't catch them because Philly has only one conference loss and Minnesota has two.
  2. Minnesota:  11-3 and won NFC North.  Clinches at least the #2 unless they lose to both the Bears and Packers.
  3. THREE teams are 10-4.  The Rams, the Saints, and the Panthers.  You have to break the NFC South tie first  -- the Saints swept the Panthers in both games, so two wins wins them the NFC South under all conditions.  The Rams, however, beat the Saints, so the Rams are the 3
  4. The Saints are the 4
  5. And the Panthers are the 5  (And, for the record, NONE OF THE 10-4S have clinched anything yet!)
  6. Monday night, Atlanta plays at Tampa Bay.  Atlanta is now the only team in the NFC with five losses.  A win or tie makes them the outright #6 after 14 weeks.     According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, they are the #6 anyway at this point.
A loss to Tampa makes things really messy.   Because, at that point, Atlanta, Seattle, Detroit, and Dallas would all be 8-6 for one spot.

No divisional tie to break -- it's one team from each division.

No head-to-head, all did not play all.  The NFC North played the NFC South for their division, so that meant that Dallas and Seattle all playing Green Bay meant they could not play Detroit, so the head-to-head goes away.

Next tiebreaker is conference:  In this scenario:  Atlanta is 7-3, Detroit 7-4, Seattle and Dallas 6-4.  There's your tiebreak directly, win or lose.

Atlanta at the Rams, Panthers at the Saints.

AFC ELIMINATED:  Jets, Bengals, Broncos, Texans, Colts, and Browns. 

Miami and/or Oakland would need two wins and two losses by at least two, if not all three, of Tennessee, Buffalo, and Kansas City.  (OAK would need two wins and two losses by BUF and KC.)

NFC ELIMINATED:  Giants, Bears, 49ers, Buccaneers, Cardinals, and Washington.

The 8-6s make it real sticky.  Packers are about to join this list, and might as well already.

So 12 teams out, 3 more about to go.  So it's 17 teams for 12 spots with two weeks to go.  Not a Goodell-like scenario.

BROWNS WATCH:  1-29 in their last two seasons, a loss or tie or a Giants win or tie clinches the #1 draft pick.  They have a second high pick from Houston, which, as of right now means they would pick 1 and 5.  At the Bears and Steelers to finish it.  They've got one chance left.

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