Monday, December 11, 2017

2017 Week 14 Score Report

Starting with the ratings report from Sunday:
  • FOX National (mainly Eagles-Rams):  Up 2% to a 16.0 overnight.  Sports Media Watch notes a 16.0 didn't mean that much in 2013-15, but means a lot now, as it's the biggest overnight since Week 2.  The #NFLBoycott is real, people.  Whether it's working or not -- that's another question.
  • The national window has only improved five times this season -- the other four were all with the Cowboys.
  • Speaking of the Cowboys:  The FOX regional window was up 11%, and featured the Cowboys.  Jerry Jones' "respect the flag OR ELSE" mantra is resonating.
  • CBS single window:  Down 24%.
  • Sunday night was down 30%, but last year's was Cowboys-Giants with both teams heading to the playoffs.
Vegas update:  2-1 for the week, and they were all big...
  • Detroit won (bet is over 7.5) for 7-6.  So I need one of the last three:  Home to Chicago, at Cincy, home to Green Bay.  I could easily see Detroit winning all three of those.
  • Seattle lost (bet is under 10.5) for 8-5.  So I need them to lose one of the last three:  Home to the Rams, at the Cowboys, home to Arizona.  Probably have two realistic shots at that, both decent.
  • New England just shit the bed, and now they must win all three to go over 12.5.  (At Pittsburgh, home to Buffalo and the Jets)
Current storylines, starting AFC:
  1. Pittsburgh at  11-2, won the AFC North this week.  A win over New England next week gets them home-field and makes them Super Bowl favorite.
  2. New England at 10-3.  Can retake the #1 with a win over Pittsburgh, but that makes the last two probably must-win as well.
  3. Jacksonville at 9-4.
  4. Kansas City at 7-6, tiebreaker over Los Angeles with the one win against them, but they play this Saturday night.
  5. Tennessee at 8-5.
  6. And then a mess at 7-6.  Los Angeles, Buffalo and Baltimore.  Los Angeles loses to both Buffalo and Baltimore on conference record (4-5 vs. 5-4), but breaking tie between the remaining two goes all the way to strength of victory (.407 vs. .378)!  The current #6 is the Buffalo Bills.
NFC:
  1. A lot of people talking the Wentz injury, because Philly has the NFC East wrapped up at 11-2.
  2. The Vikings falling to Carolina makes them 10-3.
  3. Los Angeles is 9-4, tied with Carolina and New Orleans.
  4. Break the divisional tie first, and New Orleans has it by sweeping Carolina (9-4).  LA then gets the #3 by the win over New Orleans.
  5. Carolina at 9-4.
  6. Atlanta at 8-5, Seattle out because Atlanta beat them. 
Five NFC teams 9-4 or better.  Two more 8-5.  This means league heavyweights like Dallas and Green Bay are probably out.

Score report:
  • 43.6875 points per game this week.  Last year was actually under 40 for the week:  39.812.
  • For the season:  44.106 PPG.  Last year:  44.524
  • Home teams continued a good run:  10-6 -- 9-7 last year.
  • Record for home teams now 111-92 (.547)  Last year:  119-84-1 (.586)
  • Home teams are 31-17 since the byes ended.
  • Over was 5-10-1 this year, 6-9-1 last year.  98-103-7 for this season, 103-102-2 last year.
  • Favorites, both this year and last, were 10-6 against the number and 11-5 straight up.
  • For this season:  107-96-5 ATS, 143-65 SU.  99-91-7 ATS, 126-70-1 SU.  I don't think we've had a pick 'em game yet this year -- we had quite a number last year.
  • Team with more penalties was 9-5.  Last year, 4-11.
  • Team with more penalties this year is now 85-107 vs. 72-102 last year.
  • FIVE Cliffhangers this week, including two doubles.  (Green Bay needed 20 unanswered and a Double Cliffhanger to escape the BROWNS.  Buffalo scored 10 of it's 13 points in Cliffhanger mode for the double and the overtime blizzard win over Indianapolis.)  Last year had 3.
  • Total of 40 Cliffhangers this year -- same number as last year.
  • TEN games finished within one score this week.  Most since Week 5.  Last year had 10 as well.
  • Total number of games finishing within one score this season so far is only 101.  Last year:  115.  So one game a week less than last year finishing within one score.
  • Two games were within a score at one point of the fourth (38 for the year, last year had 39).
  • Four non-competitive contests, last year had 5.

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