Four names joined the immortals in Cooperstown today.
Chipper Jones and Jim Thome were locks, and Jones received over 97% of the vote. Trevor Hoffman and Vladimir Guerrero, the top two carryover, join them for a class of four from the writers, plus several others, later this year.
But the two most awaited numbers still fell about 20% short of the doomsday scenario for the Hall of Fame.
Joe Morgan, a Cooperstown board member, famously has sent an open letter to the entire voting class, indicating he wants no steroid cheats in the Hall. (He's too late -- Ivan Rodriguez means there IS one in the Hall, and Mike Piazza means probably at least two.)
The fact is: We are heading for a showdown between ESPN's Best Interests of Baseball (and, I also believe, Rob Manfred's -- as the balls are so obviously juiced, they might as well be dripping) and the actual Best Interests of Baseball.
Before we get to those two: The top non-inductee is Edgar Martinez, Year Nine (meaning he has only one more ballot with the writers, next year) at just over 70%.
Bonds and Clemens, as they were last year, are the next two.
Clemens got 242 votes for 57.3%, 75 short of induction. That's another 3.2% up, but he only gained three votes.
Bonds got 238 for 56.4%, 79 short of induction. 2.6% up, but gained NO votes.
Each has four years left.
2019 has Mariano Rivera and probably Martinez as locks. That might be the ballot that might determine, once and for all, whether they have a realistic shot.
2020 is the Derek Jeter year, with Jason Giambi also on the ballot.
2021 looks to be a complete shutout for first-timers.
And 2022 is A-Rod, David Ortiz. Which means, by then, we probably should have a pretty good indication as to whether A-Rod gets in before Vote One is cast.
I think they need a straight referendum on whether to let in the cheats, remove the cheats they already have (in the Hall and on the ballot), and what to do.
The minimal gains for Bonds and Clemens indicate it might not be next year, as I feared last year, but there are three good definites after that.
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