Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Couple of morning odds and sods, 8/2/17...

  • This first one, as ESPN tries to bring the league mantra home -- but not in the way they're trying to tell you...
  • Speaking of ESPN, in a fight where at least one ESPN analyst (Max Kellerman) is saying that Conor McGregor won't even land a punch (you better damn well hope that fight is over in about 60 seconds then!!), a bunch of Las Vegas (Superbook, in almost all cases) betting data on the Mayweather-McGregor farce is hitting the table...
  1. I now know what my current number appears to be when I hit Vegas (barring a last-minute cancellation) next week:   I'd be getting 5-1 if I bet McGregor, I'd be -700 (1-7) on Mayweather.
  2. Interestingly, even though many believe McGregor will not land a punch, the number appears far too interestingly close that bettors believe Mayweather can actually toy with him for 12 rounds:  The over-under is 9.5 rounds, and you're only getting +145 on the over.  And, as far as the method Floyd wins, KO is only forcing you to lay -160.
  3. Bring the over-under to four rounds (more correctly, will Mayweather win in Rounds 1-4?), the under (Yes) is +350.  That may turn out to be the one I consider the most if I lay anything.
  4. Bring that number to 2.5 rounds, and Under 2.5 actually gets you about as good of odds as you get playing McGregor (+450).
  5. And they have a number of Super Bowl-esque cross-sport propositions as well.
  6. And the William Hill has a few real out there bets, at least for the UK (not sure if this is available in places William Hill runs books in Vegas or not, will check):  You get 16-1 if McGregor is DQ'ed for a kick.  If Kellerman is right and you bet it (McGregor lands zero punches), 20-1.  And here's one:  You can bet in the UK on a prop that both fighters are knocked down twice, get up, the fight goes the distance, and McGregor wins the decision (200-1).
  7. And ESPN is asking books to keep track of the largest bets taken on each fighter.  The Westgate has taken two undisclosed "low six-figure" (their words) bets on Mayweather (one on July 3, one July 28) -- hmm, could this be Money Team money scooping up the discards of the "squares"?  Before the fight was even made official, the Westgate took $50,000 on Mayweather at about 1-8.  And just after it was made official, one of the other books which covers several casinos took a $45,000 one.
  8. And, on the "What a Fool Believes" side of the equation:  On July 24th, the William Hill US book (one of the Vegas ones) took three separate $50,000 bets for McGregor to win from the same person.  He moved the line from +475 to +425 on the first, bet it again at the second number, and got another bet at +425 when it moved again.  Someone has dropped $150,000 in that he believes Conor McGregor can win a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather.  He either knows the fix is in for McGregor, or he needs to give me that kind of money, because I could spend it better on hookers and blow.  (And I'm no druggie, I don't do "blow".  And I don't see the point in a prostitute, frankly.)
  9. It sounds like this guy might also have gone to the Westgate.  THEY took two "five-figure bets" (their words)  on McGregor on the same day.
  10. AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH POINT...  They took a $35,000 bet on McGregor at 6-1.
Could someone have dropped $250,000-300,000 on McGregor?  SERIOUSLY?

Bets on the fight at 13 to 15 McGregor bets for every Mayweather bet.

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