Vegas Adventures: NFL Totals Discussion

Now, something a lot of people are looking at this time of year: NFL Win Totals.

(Again, all odds are as of the printed paper I got, may not be accurate even at time of writing.)

Let's get this out of the way right now: The William Hill will take all comers at 15-1 that the Patriots run the table. (The prop is that any team can, but who are we kidding here?)

For their regular-season win total, 12 ½ is the number at the William Hill and Superbook (normal -110 both ways), as well as Caesar's (-135 over, +105 under). The MGM Grand has it at 12, but you're laying -170 on over that!

No other team is over 10 ½. Meaning, for the bookies to take bets, they're asserting the Patriots are 2 games better than anyone in the league – or about to get there at the MGM Grand.

The 10 1/2s are: Pittsburgh (at -135 to -145 over), Seattle (-115 to -130 over), and Green Bay (who's the other direction, looking about +110ish over and -135ish under).

Dallas has become a rather interesting situation on the next level. You can get 9 ½ at Caesar's at -155 over – the MGM Grand and the Superbook have actually come down from an original 10 and you can get 9 ½ at -110! The William Hill has it at 10 and about to move to 9 ½ (-165 under) as well.

Atlanta is also at that 9 ½ – 10 situation. 9 ½ with -145 over at Caesar's, 9 ½ -125 over at Superbook, 9 ½ -120 over at William Hill, and MGM Grand has them at 10, +130 over -160 under.

So let me give some ideas as to where I MIGHT be laying money before I come home late Thursday:

• $5 on that 19-0 prop might well be good here. More on the Patriots going over the 12 ½, one of the biggest gimmes out there unless Brady gets hurt!
• With both negative comments by Richard Sherman (proposing a player strike in three years) and Doug Baldwin slamming the league on their blackballing of Colin Kaepernick (which would get it's own post, except it's only really one question: If Jay Fucking Cutler, a clearly statistically-inferior quarterback, gets a one-year, $10 million contract because Tannehill is probably out the year with the injury, doesn't that answer the deal on Kaepernick now?), I'm definitely staring the under 10 ½ on Seattle in the face.
• Arizona would have to go over their number at that point.
• I know Oakland is getting a lot of local support (and even more now that they are going to be the Las Vegas Raiders), but the league has got to prop up that city to keep the Raiders relevant until they get here! That screams Over. David Carr gets hurt, though, and that's the vacuum to that money.
• Unless they announce the Elliot decision in the next two days, I'm laying off Dallas in all respects.
• Green Bay might be another matter. Very tough schedule (home to Seattle Week 1, at Dallas, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta, and they usually swoon a bit as well), and 10 ½ might be more than I can ask.