USA Today reports this morning that the line for Super Bowl LX still remains a farcical Seattle -4.5 -- even though the last ten meetings between the two teams were within one score at the two-minute warning.
Fanatics is back down to -4.5, after earlier being up at -5, according to Vegas Insider. The only question, from there, is the juice you get. It now does appear that most lines are at least tilting to Seattle, with the -4.5 most places now going -112 to -115, where the +4.5 now only means you lay somewhere -105 to -110.
(The Vegas Insider link will give you the current number, so if it changes, you'll see it there.)
Money line is Seattle -225, New England +190.
Betonline.ag actually has a prop -- you get 20-1 (+2000) on Bad Bunny being arrested on stage during the halftime show. (I'd lay a few bucks on that. I have, more, wonder if someone might not actually shoot the guy during the show.)
ICE raiding a Super Bowl tailgate party in the parking lot will only get you 3-1 (+300) on the yes side. (That surprises me. If it's 20-1 for them to go all the way and take Bad Bunny out of the equation, why would it be as low as 3-1 for a parking lot incident?)
On the other side of the coin, if you really wanna piss off MAGA, Bad Bunny is odds-on to don a dress during the halftime show (-150). And there's a prop onto which style of dress he will wear.
(Information courtesy lousianasports.net)
Prediction Market Kalshi (as well as Polymarket) has the probability of a Seattle win at 68%. This means that Seattle is actually a little overpriced in Vegas, as computational analysis indicates a 68% probability to win is about -212, rather than the -225 you are getting (about 69 1/4%).
However, that probability indicates that Seattle is UNDER-priced at -4.5 -- that the line should be effectively a touchdown (-6 to -6.5).
No comments:
Post a Comment