Tuesday, August 15, 2023

College Football Will Be Run By The NFL Within Ten Years

The dissolution of the Pac-12 Conference this summer, and it's sudden nature, in the face of such complete (justifiable!) lack of interest, read in what media deals the old conference could get once UCLA and USC were already gone, has spurred significant talk of the future of college football.

In my travels of rec.sport.football.college, I have made my position clear:
  • The amateur/NCAA model is dead.  Whatever the under-the-table situation did to start it, NIL finished it.  It will be some form of professional ball.
  • You will start seeing "lesser divisions" dropping schools from football (expense, liability, etc.), especially as NIL deals force the talent which might've "stayed home" in FCS/D2/D3 to go to D1...
  • ... which will then funnel all the talent upward, and eventually you will get:
    • One national super-conference, 32ish schools
    • The NFL will run it as it's college-level minor-league (which is what most of the true "minor league football" actually is -- one of the reasons a number of "NFL opportunity" spring leagues haven't taken a great degree of root (two versions of the XFL, the second version of the USFL has still not left the one-city model, so no one shows up for anyone else's games, blowing up the cred of that league, the death already of the AAFL)
    • Most of the rest of football will become a "club sport", not unlike rugby and the like, in most other colleges -- whatever tradition keeps going will be at that level.
Because of the following things that at least have been placed in discussion:
  • Washington Post:  A "Super League", with the next decade basically falling to two super-conferences.  The rest of the schools, the article notes, would be a "footnote".
  • This off comments from the Nebraska AD that they aren't done.
    • Almost indicating that the ACC is the next domino to fall, and, probably by 2026 at the latest, we get to three conferences.
  • There's even been at least one Twitter post regarding a 5-6 tier English-soccer style promotion-relegation system.

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