In short, the standings you read and that I just posted below are kayfabe.
This is the booking, at least as I see it now. YES, IT CAN CHANGE AND WILL CHANGE.
I think one thing is clear: There may not be a real NFC option here. If they decide not to go with Tom Brady (and specifically Tom Brady), I think we are looking back-to-back, with the ominous view of back-to-back-to-... for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
AFC:
1) Kansas City. (9-1, leads AFC West by 3)
I give zero fucks that Pittsburgh is 10-0 with a workable (at least to this point) chance at 16-0.
All roads go through Patrick Mahomes. The league has already made him the Golden Child with LAST YEAR'S Super Bowl.
It is clear to anyone paying attention that the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes are the future of the National Football League. They've already booked that -- Mahomes is getting at least three rigged rings, probably more, barring a career-shattering injury real soon now.
BUT: There are really only two "buts" in this situation. Neither involve Pittsburgh. One is Tom Brady, the other is the 20-30% drop in ratings due to the White Right NFL Boycott.
They have Miami, Tampa, and New Orleans among their final six. Tampa, I think, is a possible (but the possibility is fleeting a bit) Super Bowl dry run.
2) Pittsburgh. (10-0, leads AFC North by 3)
So why would a 10-0 team be below anyone right now?
BUT: It's simple. The narrative the NFL is trying to set is far more than just one year worth of narrative. UrinatingTree's "Yinzer" aside, I really do not see an avenue for the Steelers to be in the Super Bowl -- but not through fault of their own.
They have Baltimore, Cleveland, Miami, and Buffalo among their final six. Though more likely they, say, go 3-3 for 13-3 while KC goes 5-1 for 14-2, it is not that implausible for me to see 16-0 vs. 15-1.
As such, there is a significant gap between #2 and #3 in the AFC, at least on my Political Rankings.
3) Indianapolis (7-3, has tiebreaker over Tennessee)
4) Tennessee (7-3, first wild-card)
These two basically walk together, especially because there is a second meeting upcoming between the two, and, frankly, both of them have basically become the top of the "next level" in the AFC. I don't think anyone outside the fanbases actually has Super Bowl aspirations for either of these teams (and I do think the league has a slight nod of Indianapolis over Tennessee in this regard, due to some marquee wins already).
BUT: Neither team really has that buzz, at the end of the day, to break through and actually close the gap on the two teams I have above them. They are, as I said before, a DISTANT third and fourth.
And both have some real tests down the stretch: They play each other next week, so there should finally be a small separation in the favor of the 8-3 team -- more if it's Indianapolis than if it's Tennessee. Tennessee also has the Browns and Packers left in their final five. Indianapolis has Tampa Bay after facing Tennessee, and then road games eventually with Las Vegas and Pittsburgh.
We'll know a lot more about these two teams and whether one can give them any realistic shot as the final six weeks go on.
5) Buffalo (7-3, leads AFC East by one game, beat Miami Week 2)
6) Miami (6-4, currently out, they play again Week 17)
This probably is going to be manipulated down to that Week 17 game, and both teams are in the same realistic boat: The "Any Given Sunday" brigade.
Especially Miami (which is why I have them above both Las Vegas AND Cleveland on this list, the other two wild-cards), but can you imagine what would happen if the Dolphins go from a literal disgrace Week 1-5 or 6 last year to a division title in less than a season and a half?
And Buffalo is long-starving as well, and the door is finally open now that Tom Brady and New England have broken up.
BUT: In no uncertain terms, that's all they have. It's a nice story for at least one of them to see the divisional round, but really not much more than that.
Buffalo and Miami play Week 17. Buffalo has a fairly easy schedule to get there -- really Pittsburgh being the only speed-bump.
Miami has Kansas City and Las Vegas before they get there. They may well have to win one of those two games (far more likely, but not nearly probably a favorite at Allegiant Stadium) to have a realistic shot at it.
Speaking of Las Vegas:
7) Las Vegas Raiders (6-4, third wild-card)
Really, about the only thing they have is the new location -- and there's no chance they get a home game there, it appears.
About the only real benefit to a playoff berth for Las Vegas would be a third dramatic game with Kansas City. There is probably, in my mind, more storyline "doubt" as to Kansas City winning over the Raiders than over the Steelers.
BUT: That's about all they have. They are not consistent in the least, and are one of the largest COVID-protocol offenders the league has had this year.
Indianapolis and Miami, both at Allegiant Stadium, highlight the final six. That will probably speak the volumes as to whether the Raider Nation gets January football.
8) Cleveland (7-3, second wild-card)
Winning ugly, Baker Mayfield, and...
BUT: And...
And......
Tennessee, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh litter the final six. They might not be worth a material damn to a lot of people, but 11-5 is not out of the ballpark here.
9) Baltimore is 6-4, but needs to right the ship fast or their season is sunk.
NFC:
The number 1 here is a really tough call. I said when the season started that Tampa Bay and Tom Brady would be about the only real obstacle Kansas City could have. I still believe this, but I am no longer confident that is going to get them much more than in the playoffs. They'd have to row a very steep road, but it's not infeasible.
New Orleans, I truly believe, is just being held for a screwjob. Now, eagle-eyes can make the case, not unlike the Raiders and Gruden in Super Bowl XXXII, for a "make-up" of the last two seasons. I still believe, though, especially if Brees can't go, that they're being held for the right time to put them down.
Green Bay? Just... no. No. No. No. No. Once again, at best, they are jobbers to the stars. And there's really little else (even with Aaron Rodgers) to speak positive for them. And, REALLY; FUCKERS??? MORE death threats because someone followed the script???? REALLY?
I'm actually going to go an interesting direction here:
1) Los Angeles Rams (Lead NFC West 7-3 and a win over Seattle week before last)
1A) Seattle Seahawks (7-3, they play again Week 16 in Seattle)
There is nothing for me to say that these are, end of the year, the two best choices.
I just think these are probably the two best choices for the NFL right now, in their opinion.
You have the Los Angeles Experiment:
BUT: Not only without fans, but with the entire LA metro area about one more good riot from completely falling apart, it really doesn't seem, at this point, that the LA Experiment has much ground to it. That said, you look at the other options...
Seattle, for one, would appear to be about the best current case for the NFC title, with Russell Wilson probably a distant second to Patrick Mahomes for the league MVP.
BUT: Not only is he all they really have -- he's been damn near breaking his back carrying them -- the main thing they have is the 12th Man... A 12th Man who still will not be allowed in the stadium due to current Washington-state COVID-19 case totals, even through mid-December.
Seattle can make some serious hay here. Their only two competitive opponents left are the Rams and 49ers.
The Rams have two games with Arizona to go with their game with Seattle. Stay in range for Week 16, and it might come down to the availability of the 12th Man for the playoffs to determine who gets the spot.
3) New Orleans (8-2, sweep over Tampa, and 1 1/2 up on them in the NFC South)
You'd THINK they should be #1 easy.
BUT: Two things: Is Drew Brees going to be able to come back... Now or ever? This isn't just cracked ribs and a collapsed lung. It sounds like he barely has rib cages left -- on BOTH SIDES!
And then you have the Refball of the last two years in the playoffs.
Are they the current NFC favorites? Probably, especially because they swept Tampa. And the fact they have really only one big game left and 12-4 is probably a given, even with the backup.
Eagle eyes would recall, as I said, the Make-Up Super Bowl XXXII. And they probably would be the ones doing the job anyway for KC.
But this is one I have to see to believe.
4) Tampa Bay (7-4, second wild card)
Two words. Tom Brady.
BUT: He has been quite fallible this year. It will take SERIOUS Refball to get him and the Bucs to the Super Bowl. Not that that has not happened in the past, but there is no propganda phrase-ology to save his neck this time.
About the only real case he has is if we find out this is it.
Kansas City next week, and they have to make that look at least like a Super Bowl walkthrough. But then four games they should sweep after a late-season bye, and then we see...
5) Green Bay (7-3, lead NFC North by two)
BUT: Pretty much a "somebody has to take the division" motif. And, yes, Aaron Rodgers -- but that's it. And the team has basically beaten nobody THAT good. Blown out by Tampa, lost to Indy last week, no one's sure about New Orleans at this point.
Worst part of this is: Unless they slip up against the Bears, 12-4 is a given, and 13-3 us not unfeasible. They have Tennessee left, but that's about it.
ALSO: Arizona (6-4, third WC), basically on the basis of that they are third-best in that division with two far more palatable options.
And then that entire debacle of an NFC East, with 3 wins apiece. Worst part of this is there's only four division games left in the season. 5-10-1 could win that division outright.
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