Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Suspension Blotter: And the Drugboys are off to a start here...


  • Dallas Cowboys:  Randy Gregory:  Strike Four, thrown out of the league again.
  • Gregory is the third player thrown out of the league for the drug policy since December.
  • And it appears, if the Boys keep this guy (he becomes a free agent March 1), they've already got money to pay:  David Irving is about get Strike Three.
We got our answer about the Cowboys for last season.  I was wondering why they got off that train so quickly, and there you go.

EDIT TO ADD 3:30 PM:

  • Canadian Football League/Montreal Allouettes:  Johnny Manziel thrown out of the league -- and in actuality.  Violated an unnamed condition of his ability to play in the CFL.  His football career is over.

Monday, February 25, 2019

OK, guys... What's REALLY going on with this Bob Kraft story?

According to the actual charges, Robert Kraft was soliciting sex from a prostitute (a human-trafficked masseuse at that massage parlor, the Orchids of Asia Day Spa) at 11 AM Eastern time the morning of the AFC Championship game (January 20, 2019), was out the door by 11:15 (the suck and rub costing him $100), and he was in Kansas City for the game at 6:40 PM.

Police say they have the act on video.  The second count comes from an act the next day.

Since anyone who watched Super Bowl LIII(E) knows the game was rigged for the Patriots, I have to ask more about what's really going on here:
  • For this to be accurate, police had to know Kraft was involved in this two weeks or so before the Super Bowl.  Why was no one contacted?
  • Does this not provide another level of speculation (nothing more) that other high-level NFL officials, including Roger Goodell, might be involved here?
  • Does this not also provide another level of speculation as to the power of the league's "fixers" of problems?
  • What do you think the probability that the NFL did not know about this before Super Bowl LIII(E)?
Stay tuned.

Friday, February 22, 2019

Robert Kraft, and something FAR BIGGER: Revisiting the Question

First off, what does this mean for Kraft?

The counts are third-degree felonies. 796.07(2)(f)...

(2) It is unlawful:

(f) To solicit, induce, entice, or procure another to commit prostitution, lewdness, or assignation.

And, because it's in a massage parlor, it's upgraded a tick

(7) If the place, structure, building, or conveyance that is owned, established, maintained, or operated in violation of paragraph (2)(a) is a massage establishment that is or should be licensed under s. 480.043, the offense shall be reclassified to the next higher degree as follows:
 
and:

(5)(a) A person who violates paragraph (2)(f) commits:
1. A misdemeanor of the first degree for a first violation, punishable as provided in s. 775.082 or s. 775.083.


And that makes it a third-degree felony.  He could (but won't) get 10 in the clink for it.

He also is subject to the Personal Conduct Policy.  Meaning not only can he be suspended and fined (and longer than players for the same offense -- because owners are black-letter supposed to set better examples), but all ancillary team fines and the like can apply as if it were a player.

It does not appear it will go to the extent of his being forced to sell the team...

------

UNLESS...

Let's revisit the question that someone who talked to me about it this morning before my first post on the subject:  Who'd he piss off?

I think the bigger point, though, has to be made by Adam Schefter's comments this morning, that he said that Kraft was NOT the biggest name of the 200 or so men found at a string of Florida massage parlors, being serviced by foreign women in a sex-trafficking ring of at least the massage parlors.

But here is just a SMALL sampling of some of the things which have come out about this case...
— Ryan Saavedra (@RealSaavedra) February 22, 2019
 
So the questions are two-fold:

First, why would such high-profile men be taking such services at such low-level places?

The easy answer would be that they would not be noticed, recalling the problems the NBA had when it was revealed that a number of basketball players were being sexually serviced at Atlanta strip clubs.

But the far bigger question:

They have now announced that Robert Kraft, the most prominent owner in the NFL, and often seen as Deputy Commissioner to Roger Goodell, has not only been arrested for soliciting prostitution, but is not even the biggest "name" to have had done so.

They've got something -- and they've got something BIG.  And I think it's far above the sexual solicitation of foreign women illegally in four jurisdictions of Florida massage parlors.

For Robert Kraft to take the fall FIRST leaves the question of:  Who else, and what?

As the Deadspin article mentioned in one of the posts below notes openly:  Someone knew, and someone knew BIG.  The question becomes what there was to know about...

The college basketball and sports worlds had better hope it's a workmanship error...

Officials from Nike have shown up at Duke University today, and there's a very good reason why they are there.

Wednesday night, in the college basketball Game of the Year, the game effectively ended in the first 45 seconds, when absolute Player of the Year Zion Williamson went down with an ankle injury caused when his Nike shoe split on him, causing the injury.

Duke has had an exclusive contract with Nike for various forms of shoes and other compensations since at least 2008.

--

They better hope they find it's a simple workmanship error -- which conservatives and Libertarians who oppose Nike's slave-labor policies note is a very real possibility.

That said, however, they better make sure we know about it if it is.

For one very OMINOUS reason...

If this turns out not to be a simple workmanship error, it raises the possibility someone was able to get to Williamson's shoes, tamper with them, and influence the result of the contest (Duke was no match at all for North Carolina without him, losing by 16.).

I think that's another reason Nike has sent some of it's top officials.  Stay tuned.

EDIT TO ADD 2/23/19 about midnight:  Well, there's a second reason.  Nike stock plunged 2% at the open on Thursday, shearing $1,100,000,000 off the market share of the company -- probably ALL due to the Williamson incident.

It is now becoming apparent this is a MAJOR celebrity bust...

Adam Schefter:  Robert Kraft is NOT the biggest name involved in the Florida massage parlor/prostitution sting.

Schefter, as one well knows, is ESPN's main go-to NFL rumors guy.

That, and some of the comments from the press conference in Florida yesterday, are getting me to indicate we are probably looking at a major prostitution bust for the NFL, and possibly other sports leagues (and other celebs) as well.

But if Robert Kraft is not the biggest name involved...

Speaking simply NFL, you'd probably be looking at Goodell.

If you go beyond that...  Good gravy!

And the police say they have ALL OF THEM on video.

I think someone I've already spoke to had it right: Who'd you piss off??

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft has been arrested for solicitation of prostitution in an illegal massage parlor in Florida.

This is an owner who has seen fit to be so far above the rules during his six-title reign over the National Football League.

The first reaction of all this is the concept of that most, if not all, of the NFL owners do this.  The reason we know of this is that Kraft has been apparently caught on video in this situation.

Which means one of two things...  Either the massage parlor has been infiltrated, or something is afoot and Kraft pissed off somebody.

And this dovetails into a VERY INTERESTING press conference Deadspin reported on yesterday.

Now, there's no tie to the Kraft story YET...  And I do need to stress this.

In what seemed to be a routine sex trafficking press conference (as much as those things ARE "routine"...), but Florida law enforcement had a press conference yesterday regarding massage parlors in four Florida jurisdictions.

And, as Deadspin reported, there was a very real interesting line of questioning during the press questions.  At least twice, the NFL was brought up in the discussion -- and, as Diana Moskovitz asserts, that probably means there's rumor afloat.

Another question, bringing up "prominent people", got the answer about the 137 warrants on the question:  "They're all notable."

Something's going down -- probably a mass prostitution and prostitution-for-access situation.  And Robert Kraft, again, is smack-dab in the middle of NFL controversy for the wrong reasons.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

ESPN admits one of it's major partner leagues had a match-fixing official...

ESPN decided that yesterday was a good day to dust off the Tim Donaghy story.

You do really need to read the depth in which this article goes -- this is just the Cliff's Notes, and ESPN needs to be credited for this work.

A two-year investigation into Donaghy and his impact on the NBA (and who he had connections with) led to this article, stating openly, for the first time, that a major American sports league had relatively recent matches fixed.

(ESPN has been a broadcast partner in NBA games since 2002.)

Now, the NBA has done a very good job of distancing Donaghy as a single rogue official.

It has also done a very poor job, even with improvements under Commissioner Silver, convincing most Americans that most games, to one form (tanking) or another (the referees and league) aren't fixed.

In short, the first takeaway is that Donaghy never should've been allowed to referee in this league at all.

The NBA should've investigated ties that Donaghy had to underground gamblers going all the way back to his parochial high school just outside Philadelphia -- and continued for 25 years since.

Starting in December of 2006, Jimmy Battista (the "Sheep", among several other nicknames), well down in significant gambling debt, decided to call on his old friend Donaghy, and started asking him simple favors:

Make sure the games go how Battista needs them to go, and Donaghy pockets an extra $2,000.

An NBA referee in 2009 could make anywhere from $90,000 to $300,000 over the course of a season, depending on seniority, according to a poster on officiating.com.

If not, there's no penalty, but it is an encouragement to use the power of the NBA official to manipulate the games the way that Battista sees fit.

But Battista was in debt to a number of people, in an illegal hedge-fund-ish sort of arrangement of a massive gambling junket.  Battista, himself, was what is called in the parlance, a "mover", a person who does this kind of thing for people who might not otherwise have the right, or who might be looking to have a particular game at a particular (possible) spread.

A second, mutual friend from the same high school worked as a liaison betwen Battista and Donaghy.

But, perhaps the most important thing to note in the early part of this article is that the article lists fourteen NBA referees from the Philadelphia area.  Any one of the other 13 could also have similarly manipulated contests for this hedge fund of Battista's, and the names are often infamous with some of the believed-rigged contests over the years.  Ed T. Rush and Joey Crawford are only two names on that list -- two of the more infamous NBA officials who have been believed to have manipulated games.

Just as one ominous example: 
  • Tom Washington refereed Game 1 of the infamous 2002 Western Conference Finals.
  • Joey Crawford did Game 7.
  • The supervisor of the officials for the league, and since 1998?  Edward T. Rush.
Donaghy was heavily involved in gambling since at least October of 2002, when another mutual friend devised a handicapping system for football games.

By the next calendar year, Donaghy and his friend were betting the NBA, and exclusively games Donaghy was officiating.  This would mean, ESPN points out, that there were openly-rigged games in the NBA, at the bare minimum, from the 2002-2003 season to when Donaghy was caught out at some point four seasons later.

Tim's wife Kim knew something was up in 2004, but was scared for her safety to say anything when he found rolls of $100 bills -- large rolls -- in the pocket of his official jacket.  Kim divorced Tim after Tim was caught in 2007.

An offshore syndicate of bookies caught onto a golfing buddy of Donaghy's when they began to notice a pattern of that person losing bets at a normal $100-$500 level on most NBA games, but consistently winning $5,000 bets on games Donaghy was an official.

The syndicate decided to up the ante, making bets of $30,000 to $100,000 on games Donaghy refereed, finding that, in fact, Donaghy was blowing for more fouls for the team he needed to have on the wrong end of the spread and fewer for the team who was to benefit.

Of course, they had to do this carefully:  Do it without the requisite care, and tip off league officials and whatever gaming officials exist where they were.

By December of 2006, it was no longer able to be ignored that particular bettors were winning massive sums consistently on games Donaghy refereed, and no amount of care would be possible not to tip people off anymore.

This forced Battista to make the above-mentioned offer (exclusive knowledge of the fix for $2,000 a correct pick) to Donaghy, to try to reduce the damage and hope the heat died down.  Though it is largely believed there was no penalty for the bets losing, Donaghy claimed to Federal agents that Battista threatened to sic the NBA on him if they lost.

The next night, Donaghy told Battista to bet the Celtics, 2.5 point favorites against Philadelphia.

In almost perfect fixing motifs, Boston was 7-13 in the young NBA season, Philly 5-15.

Boston won by 20.  And the ESPN article notes that action based on Battista's knowledge probably moved half a million dollars in bets through Battista and his hedge fund, which eventually moved the Vegas line from Boston -2.5 to Boston -4.

Donaghy, through the second mutual friend, was able to communicate winning bet after winning bet to the hedge-fund, using the names of two further mutual friends to dictate whether to take one side of the game or the other.

$2,000 per win became $5,000 per win -- and it was now clear that Donaghy had a significant amount of cash on the side.  Moves as much as FIVE POINTS on an NBA line were percolating on games Donaghy refereed.  The article gives several indications as to games Donaghy fixed in the 2006-2007 season in this regard.

But Battista, as always happens, wanted too much -- he took that money and lost millions on stuff he didn't (or couldn't) have angles on.  And that's when the FBI, knowing Donaghy was in the pocket of Battista, contacted Battista.

By June 21, 2007, the FBI was in New York and meeting with NBA Commissioner David Stern.  The head investigator in the case, Phil Scala, felt that meeting was a mistake, which probably led to the story leaking a month later and blowing up the prospect of them possibly finding other NBA officials as on the take.

--

But here you are:
  • Donaghy had at least two long-time friends, probably three, in some of these syndicates.
  • A distinct pattern of at least four seasons of games Donaghy bet on that he was refereeing.
  • And, once the FBI got him and some of the people behind it, the "fixers" of the NBA blow up the investigation to ensure that, of the league, only Donaghy takes the fall.  And Phil Scala believes this to be true.
To give you an idea of how angry Scala was, there is the belief Donaghy, alone, could've influenced $100,000,000 in illegal underground bets from when the information started flowing to when he was caught.  And you need to read the ESPN article to see the level of power players that were in on this scheme, and well could have benefitted from it -- from crime bosses to Hollywood celebrities and anyone with enough money to bet in between!

The NBA, still today, believes Donaghy never fixed a game.

The investigation ESPN did over two years indicates otherwise.

You awake yet, Sports Nation America?

Whether you are or are not, READ THIS ESPN ARTICLE.

Friday, February 15, 2019

Two rather large updated stories today...

First, Colin Kaepernick has settled his blackball collusion case today with the NFL.

Eric Reid (though he has returned to the league, unlike Kaepernick) did as well.

Word is that Kaepernick will receive somewhere $60-80 million for the settlement, but NDA's will prevent any further comment.

Second, this Anthony Davis saga in New Orleans gets worse by the moment.

New Orleans has fired their GM for mishandling this entire situation.  From the self-tampering to asking probably far too much in a deadline trade and then everything which has come afterward, from threatened fines by the NBA, statements against the Pelicans by Davis...

Last night was the final straw for ownership with Dell Demps.  Davis left the arena halftime with an apparent shoulder injury, and that was it for Demps come this morning.

The ownership of the Pelicans is going to have to sit down with the NBA.  The situation is so out of control that, had the NBA not already threatened the team with $100,000 a game if Davis sat, I'd have suspended Davis as long as the CBA allows me to.

But this, again, is an example of what is becoming far too prevalent -- players wanting out of bad situations and sabotaging the situation either to get it or when they don't get it.

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Three VERY Fouled Up Stories Today

Eesh...
  • Castor Semenya is back in the news.  The IAAF is refuting a report that they have declared Caster Semenya male and are attempting, in court, to change the rules such that she is no longer declared, because of her testosterone level, to be allowed to run with women. (BBC)
Good grief.  Get off her back already.  Used by homophobes and transphobes as a whipping post to try to impose bigots' will on the rest of us, Semenya has been forced to challenge the IAAF's expansion of rules on athletes such as her who are female but may have more testosterone than most females.  It is, now, likely that, even should she win, she's out for most of 2019.

So it really doesn't fucking matter, IAAF, if you call her "male" or not -- the fact is you ARE doing so by imposing those new restrictions on what the IAAF is terming athletes with "differences in sexual development".

The appeal will continue to be heard in courts in South Africa and the Council for the Arbitration of Sport.
  • David Stern is back in the news.  And it's his mouth about Colin Kaepernick...  (Deadspin).
Reports today that, had the NFL bowed to the right wing and suspended Kaepernick, he'd be in the NFL today.

Two things about that:

First, the NBA does have a requirement for players to stand for the National Anthem -- unlike the NFL.  But history appears to indicate the NBA has it's own blackball stories.  The Deadspin article points out the most famous case to show for it:  Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf -- banned one game, fined $32,000, and not allowed to play in the NBA again until he certified in writing he would stand for the Anthem.

That was in March of 1996, the same season Abdul-Rauf led the Nuggets in scoring.

The Nuggets exiled him to Sacramento that summer, and he was blackballed from the league two years later.

Second, there's always been a question in people's minds as to how Donald Sterling could've gotten away with all he did in the NBA.

That smirking-ass moron of a commissioner for so many years probably is a good case for why.
  • And speaking of NBA Commissioners in the news...
Real interesting story coming out today about Adam Silver.

Silver, on NBA All-Star Weekend, is reported in ESPN to have no real consideration of a story which has come out which is...  interesting to say the least.

Silver has now been NBA Commissioner for five years, and is, ironically, celebrating it in Charlotte, North Carolina at the NBA All-Star Game -- the site of one of Silver's greatest victories as Commissioner, as he threw his weight behind efforts to expel a transphobic law from the state of North Carolina.

North Carolina held it's ground for a time, and Silver expelled the 2016 event from the state as a result.  North Carolina rescinded the law, at least partially, and enough for this year's event to be held in Charlotte.

That said, there's an interesting report out there that ESPN discovered that a confidant of an NFL owner actually reached out to Silver to try to get Silver to be Commissioner of the NFL.  Obviously, Silver declined.

And now reports have come out that this has been a continuing process since Silver became NBA Commissioner five years ago.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm...  Maybe the game-fixing has gotten too close to the surface?

How would Silver's inclusive nature (imposing race- and LGBT-friendly decisions on parties within the NBA who have refused such) be treated by the #NFLBoycott crowd?  (And (see above) his predecessor???)

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Say it with me, Deadspin: COL-LU-SION.

We are now in the week pitchers and catchers report.

Neither Manny Machado nor Bryce Harper (among a host of other top-flight MLB players) has a home yet.

There is already significant work-stoppage talk around the league.  Only question appears when...

And would the owners not use that opportunity for complete replacement baseball??

Whoops, forgot this. We have a Super Bowl Fine Blotter...

  • Los Angeles Rams:  Nickell Robey-Coleman, and that should be doubled, but WAS NOT.  He was fined $26,739 for unnecessary roughness for his first-quarter penalty.
  • The Rams finish the season in dollar-for-dollar territory.  Fines in each of their three playoff games totaled $63,504, which put them over the Level 2 number.  So $25,000 for that to start, and then another $6,660 in dollar for dollar.  That means the Rams final total for the year is almost $299,000.
So that's it for the 2018-19 NFL Fine Blotters, finally.

The Rams actually finish the year as the fourth most-fined team in the NFL -- making one wonder if THAT may also have been a factor in the rig-job that got Brady and Belichick #6.

But perhaps something far more disturbing, when you look into it.

The Rams had TWO fines by Week 8, about $33,000 in total.  Both were in Week 1, and only one was a dirty hit.

Week 1:  Roughing the Passer, TD Celebration
Week 9:  One fine:  Small unnecessary roughness fine.
Week 10:  Four different fouls:  Two facemasks, a post-game altercation, and roughing the passer.  About $53,000 from that game, about $86,000 for the season.
Week 11 was the Offense Fest with the Chiefs, no fines.
Off Week 12.
Week 13:  A horse-collar, Suh's second fine of the season
Nothing Week 14
Week 15:  Small unnecessary roughness
Nothing Week 16
Week 17:  Lowering helmet
Divisional Round:  Late hit
Championship Round:  The no-call
And the one in the Super Bowl

If you want a great idea of about three different things in the NFL here, here you go:
  • The fine policy does not work
  • It is clear that dirty hits got the Rams where they were -- and weren't even called or fined when it was convenient for the league push.
  • And it may well have had a hand in rigging Super Bowl LIII.
Final totals league-wide, as reported:
  • Total fines and penalties for game misconduct this year exceeded $5.6 million.
  • Half the teams in the league received additional penalties for accumulated fines.
  • Five teams were further additionally penalized for a second level of accumulation.
  • Four teams received single-incident player fines exceeding $50,000.
  • There were slightly over $4.5 million in announced fines this year -- over $2 million of that came Week 12 and after, after the Kareem Hunt tape and when scoring was disintegrating.
Solution:

Frankly, suspensions and stripping wins are your only real option here.  But no one wants to do that, because that would require a level of transparency no one, especially Goodell, wants.

Saturday, February 9, 2019

Two more obvious NFL happenings this week...

  • You can pretty much cross off the Steelers for next year.
Antonio Brown now has a domestic violence situation out there, and it's becoming more and more clear there's a police cover-up going with it.

Last month, Hollywood, FL, Antonio Brown was involved in a domestic incident, and the police reports appear to state Brown pushed a woman down during it.  The NFL is investigating, but that's another star NFL'er who's just fucked his team without lube.
  • And yet another media superstar learns you don't fuck the NFL.
The Bob Costas removal from the NFL was NOT consensual, it was learned today.

According to Gizmodo's The AV Club, on an ESPN:60 to air soon Costas admits his talking about concussions got him fired from the NFL coverage.

When are people going to learn that you don't piss off the NFL unless you have new career aspirations???

(Hat-tip to my anonymous friend for tipping me off on that one.)

Oh, and before anyone gets too excited for The Alliance of American Football league starting up tonight -- it's becoming clear it's a "second-chance" league for the NFL.  Half the games this year are on the NFL Network, for one...

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: Final Ratings Are In...

First Super Bowl since XLIII not to reach 100,000,000 viewers.

Lowest viewer total since XLII.  Lowest rated since Super Bowl XXXIX.

41.1 rating, 98.2 million viewers for the latest Patriot rig-job.

But there is a very real part of this process.

For the first time, there is a verifiable link between the NFL's rigging of the sport and the fact that at least two cities decided to, to statistically significant effects, walk away from the game entirely.

Final rating in New Orleans was a 26.1 -- HALF last year's.  And the lowest rating ever in that city.

Kansas City also had a bit of a boycott too -- ratings there were down double-digit percent, though not quite as pronounced as New Orleans.

No word on St. Louis or LA, though.

But this is significant -- for the first time, there is a verifiable link between the rigging of a major American sports championship game and a significant drop in the ratings of an aggrieved team.

In this case, two.

(Current rating numbers from Sports Media Watch.  Long-term comparatives from a compiled Wikipedia chart.)

Monday, February 4, 2019

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: How one can tell there's a problem...

Just saw this ESPN (Chalk) Tweet, and thought of the bettor who not only correctly predicted the 7-1 World Cup semifinal (a score which had never taken place in the tournament at that level before then), but also that host Brazil would fall to Germany by that score and an obscure German would score....

Here's one that gets me thinking "someone knew something"...


When You Work For the Worldwide Leader, You Do NOT Piss Them Off...

Word has come across the transom that ESPN fired baseball studio host Adnan Virk on Friday.

And the "why" might make Virk unemployable anywhere...

Virk is now believed to be the source of leaks from within ESPN regarding future baseball content on the network -- and when the network investigated, Virk was less than cooperative, so he's gone.

Virk is lawyering up to sue ESPN (per Richard Deitsch), and, frankly, he probably better -- I could see this getting countersued in a Bristol minute.

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: The Ratings, and no real surprises here...

From Sports Media Watch:

Overnights are showing Super Bowl LIII to be the lowest-rated Super Bowl in a DECADE.

It is also the fourth straight year the ratings are down for the biggest television event of the year.

44.9 rating, but that's down 5% from last year and 8% from two years ago -- and is the lowest since Cardinals-Steelers ten years ago.

And it appears as if New Orleans may have played a fair factor in it.

New Orleans decided to boycott the game after the Robey-Coleman no-call in the NFC Championship game, and their rating was the lowest that city has ever had for a Super Bowl -- 26.1.

Needless to say, dead last of all the overnighted metered markets.

And Kansas City, also screwed in the AFC title game, went from a 52.2 last year to a 46.4 this year (an 11% drop).

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: OH HO!!!!

Two things:
  • Yes, the Goff interception after the PI no-call in the fourth quarter was quite blatant..
  • But the NFL has to explain this one to me...  Look at the timestamp....
And another Tweet dated FRIDAY says NFL Network had it going on.  There is no current word as to whether a Rams one ever aired.

EDIT TO ADD in case apologists show up here:  I have zero doubt that a similar commercial was made for the Rams.  I have zero doubt that this commercial was made for the Patriots.  I know that, literally the instant the gun goes off, the push for Super Bowl Champion gear is started.  It's how I found out the Giants had beaten the Patriots for 18-1.

The problem is that it was aired Saturday, and perhaps Friday as well!  There is still no word, past 1 PM on Monday, that such an "error" was made with the Rams Super Bowl gear commercial.

Super Bowl LIII(E), or should we just call it VI? A Right-Wing Goodell Special

If I'm a liberal in a big city right now, especially Los Angeles, I'm getting scared for the next 18 months.

The entire situation in LA may be about to go up, as evidenced by tonight's complete short-circuit of the LA Experiment and Title #6 for the Republican Trumpian Right Wing Propaganda machine out of New England.

To tell you how implausible this whole thing is, some facts:
  • The Super Bowl itself is a big-money pro-corporate event.  So it should, then, be no surprise that the Atlanta crowd tonight was HEAVILY pro-New England.  I don't even know how much of it was anti-Rams for the basis of the call two weeks ago, but I do know that, from the rip, the crowd was making it clear they wanted the White Right team to win.
  • To show you how much this narrative was pulled completely another direction, pretty much since Shutdown 1.0...  11-5 this year, the first time since 2009 the Patriots lost more than four games.  Also, 3-5 on the road, and all five losses were to teams who did NOT make the playoffs.
  • To pull the narrative yet further another direction:  The sixteen points, in a year in which "POINTS!!" ruled much of the narrative, and New England #2 in the AFC in scoring and the Rams #1 in the NFC...  THE LOWEST SCORING SUPER BOWL IN HISTORY. SIXTEEN POINTS.
  • Only once in Super Bowl history (Super Bowl VII) has even the winning team had less than 16 points -- Miami had 14, so New England's 13 is also a Super Bowl record.  16 has been matched by the winner twice (Super Bowl IX and the infamous Super Bowl III).
  • Brian Tuohy has a potential line of thinking that Sean McVay may have been a participant in this year's rig-job...
Gurley did play, but there was significant talk that his knee was not healthy.  McVay said to CBS before the game he was fine -- but he was either lying or something was up.  10 carries, 35 yards.
  • Looked like possible magnet-tampering on two different field goal attempts (the Zeurlein make for 3-3 and the Gostkowski miss to keep the game scoreless).
  • And another interesting thought by Brian, especially given that Julian Edelman has ties to the TB12 doctor...

So what actually happened in the game?

Plenty.  And almost all for New England...
  • Should've realized the narrative at 9:14 in the first, when Nickell Robey-Coleman was flagged for helmet on defenseless receiver (the call was correct!) to prevent a 3rd and 18.
Why do I mention this after the fact?  Because if that call was correctly made two weeks ago, it's New Orleans playing New England.

That led to the aforementioned Gostkowski miss, which you should've seen coming when CBS mentioned the perfect record of field-goal kickers in the new Space Station in Atlanta.
  • All sorts of holding against the offensive lines, except for one key call I will get to.
  • First play of the second quarter is negated by a false start on the Rams -- at which point Jared Goff is unnecessarily nearly-clotheslined to the ground by a New England pass rusher.  No call.
  • Just after CBS reported the pro-Patriot crowd, two no-calls benefitted New England on the next Rams drive -- a facemask on 1st down at the LA 45, and then a blatant pass-interference bump on third down from the 49.  Punt.  Still 3-0, 8 or so minutes to go second quarter.
  • 4th and 1 for New England, 32 yard line, late in the first half, and the incomplete pass which resulted was identified by Tony Romo as a pick play -- as he said as much on the air!!!
  • Then, a bit of a headscratcher to end the half.  Punt is downed at the 2 with 16 seconds left.  Brady takes a knee to the 1.  Why doesn't LA use at least one of their two timeouts to force Brady to run another play (or even two) to perhaps force a defensive score, if even two points?
  • Another PI no-call benefiting the Patriots stalls the first drive of the second half for the Rams about midfield.
Then, the fourth quarter, tied 3-3, and the fun starts...
  • After three Rams first downs to get the ball to their 44 from their 7, Todd Gurley busts through for a run into Patriots territory for 13 yards -- except a holding call on John Sullivan of the Rams, one, given a lot of the tackling at the line, especially pro-New England, I was seeing no-called all day, and it was less than some of what New England got away with...
Show me where that's a hold, given some of what New England got away with on the line.

Drive scuttled, punt, and here's the game-winner:
  • Brady for 18
  • Brady for 14
  • Brady for 7
  • Brady for 29
  • Michel runs it in from 2 yards out for 10-3.
But the big one that seals it:
  • 4:24 to go in the fourth, three quick first downs for the Rams and it looks like they are finally getting it going.  Then, a pass to Brandin Cooks in the corner of the end zone, and the replay says it all....
Joe, I don't give a rat fuck if he "has to make that play", the fact is that Jason McCourty got his hand in on the bicep of Cooks before the ball gets there.  Blatant PI, and now he's taking social-media heat for dropping two possible touchdowns, that being one.

--

But, back to the initial point to close this post:

A lot of the power players in this country do get together.

Someone has a dire vision of LA in the next 18 months for Brady to get #6 here.

I think it's about to be on in our big cities with Shutdown 2.0...

Brady/Belichick Bowl VI: Some More Thoughts

Putting this below the game thread:
  • One of the worst Super Bowl experiences ever put on by the National Football League.
Halftime sucked.

The game was worse.

The blatant rigging, the worst of all.

There may have been three remotely-impressionable commercials (the Bud Light "Corn Syrup, Game of Thrones basically taking Sir Dilly-Dilly and putting him squarely in his place, and the Washington Post), but, seriously?  $5.2 million to get 30 seconds of that, and you guys can't do better than this shit?

Bring back the fucking "Bud Bowl" if we're going to be that lame!

All sorts of urban-fication of just about everything....
  • What kind of line would I get offshore to find out the Rams got their practices secretly taped and spied on again?
  • Good touch for MLK's daughter to do the coin toss this year.
  • Tony Romo was his Carnac self again.
Might have more here, but there really wasn't much out of the direct rig-job (as I said to one Rams fan going home:  Goodell giveth, Goodell taketh away).

Saturday, February 2, 2019

Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future: My Call on the Game

I was sitting here in some deliberation.

I was probably going to post it this afternoon anyway, but some information from ESPN's betting sources in Las Vegas about sources notifying of a major player in the game has solidified my pick.  (And all information here is from two different ESPN Chalk articles.)

"Bettor X" has made his call.  The person I am convinced has inside information on sports (and ran over the 2017 World Series and Super Bowl LII's upset as a result) placed a $1.5 million money-line bet at the William Hill at 2:30 Pacific yesterday afternoon, and followed it up with $300,000 at the South Point at 5:30.  And these followed $2 million at the MGM Grand Thursday night.

Before I get to the pick and my reasoning behind it, some other interesting tidbits:

  • As of noon yesterday:  Tickets are 3 to 1 for the Rams, money is 3 to 1 for the Patriots in the newly-legal BetStars online sportsbook in the state of New Jersey.
  • Basically, this mirrors much of the information which has come in over two weeks -- the money is 75-80% New England on this game.
  • CG Technology, who, IIRC, runs the Tropicana sportsbook now, had a number of interesting thoughts, as of at least earlier in the week, for some of the props...
Bettors there think:
  1. There will be a two-point conversion.
  2. There will be at least another player other than Brady and Goff to attempt a pass.
  3. Someone will rush for 100 yards.
  4. Not only will there be a score in the first 3:30...
  5. But both teams will score 2 or more touchdowns in each half.  (That would assure an over.)
I'll have another post below this one with some of the 440+ prop bets at the Westgate.  (I've done a couple other offshore casinos, fair to look at this one.)

As of 3:50 PM PDT (this is an edit in) through VegasInsider:

NE -2.5 is still pretty much the line, though several books are offering juice as high as -120 for New England and even money for the Rams to keep it there.

56.5 is the normal total, but it may move down:  MGM just doinked to 56, as has Atlantis -- and Caesar's has had 56 for a day or so now.

--

But, to my official call:

As I was going through all of this, I became convinced that political realities had played a part in at least half of this Super Bowl.  There was little, if any, indication that the New England Patriots were going to be the AFC representative for what is now their ninth Super Bowl of the last 18.

In fact, many people would probably point that tomorrow is the exact 17th anniversary of the rigged Super Bowl XXXVI, the start of the National Religion pro-Brady/Belichick Republican Era in the NFL.  

... against the Rams.

But as I look at this situation, I can really only think of one overriding angle:  The $5,000,000,000 stadium now 18 months from opening in Los Angeles, and what LA might look like in 18 months.

I can say with absolute clarity (though some of the information I have been given on it is eyes-only) that many of the power brokers in this country (sports, political, entertainment, etc.) do run in the same circles and communicate with each other.  

The angle I was beginning to wonder about is what kind of condition, especially if a (now-second) shutdown causes Food Stamp/Section 8 rioting in the cities, especially LA, that Los Angeles and Inglewood (which is never really safe even under the BEST circumstances!) would be in come the scheduled NFL 2020 opening of the new LA stadium...

And the ONLY way Brady gets #6 here (especially since he has categorically denied all beliefs that he would retire after this game!) is if the NFL believes (through the communications I infer to above) the LA situation might be scuttled due to mass unrest at some point in that 18 months -- and far more than Rodney King-style.

With that caveat in mind (if this goes the other way, start watching the news CLOSELY), my pick is for the team that Bettor X has laid $3.8 million on at +120 in the money line.

My pick:  Rams win, game goes overtime, major controversial call(s) decide the contest.  I'll say 34-31 in overtime.

Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future. The View From the Westgate

Someday, I would like to go to Las Vegas for a Super Bowl.

And the main place I would like to visit for the game only would be the world-famous Superbook at the Westgate.

It was earlier announced that the Westgate has over 440 prop bets on the game and in relation to associated other sporting events.

ESPN put up a .pdf file of the book of prop bets the Westgate has put on the game.  Can't find, for the moment, when the effective time of the book is -- obviously, odds currently on the board take precedence, and all information is provided as information -- use at own risk.

But if you want to see how pervasive the National Religion has become -- and how pervasive gambling on it is about to EXPLODE with states making it legal -- follow me...

This is a very selective list of bets, with some commentary, and I could see this getting LONG...

  • Point spreads up to Rams -17.5 and Pats -21.5
  • Totals from 44 1/2 to 70 1/2.  (I am kinda liking +190 at 64 1/2, just saying.  Not sure if I can go quite the Full Monty to 70 1/2.)
  • Only in Vegas can you lay 2% juice on a COIN TOSS.  (No, you can't bet who wins the coin toss -- that was made illegal in Las Vegas some time ago, for some odd reason.  But Heads or Tails is -102.)
  • First pass by Tom Brady:  Complete is -220, Incomplete/Intercepted is +180.
  • Goff is -200 complete, +170 otherwise.
  • Score by the first 6:30 of the game:  Yes -220, No +180.  (Urgh.  Laying too much for what I think is a given here.)
  • Score in the last 2:00 of the first half:  Yes -360, No +280.  (You don't think Vegas is getting wise to you, NFL?)
  • Score in the final 3:30 of the game:  Yes -170, No +145 (IMODO, that's a gimme.  But I can see why some might think otherwise -- if you're thinking a blowout, the announcers might spend upwards of the entire 4th quarter on the rimjob.  Reggie White, Peyton Manning...)
  • 3 consecutive distinct scores for either team:  Yes -220, No +180.
  • 4 consecutive distinct scores:  +250 for Yes, -310 for No.
  • Numerous first rush/reception yards propositions for many of the offensive skill players on both sides.
  • Numerous longest/shortest situations.  Here's one for an example:  The shortest TD of the game, over/under a yard and a half -- with a fumble in the end zone being 0:  Over is +150, Under is -180.  (I'd take the Over on this one.  I'm forecasting a shootout something 34-31 OT.)
  • Longest is over/under 49 1/2 -- both sides regular -110 juice.
  • First score:  TD -200, anything else +170.  (Ugh.)
  • First TD:  Passing -150, anything else +130.
  • Largest lead, either team, over-under 14 1/2:  Over is -130, Under is +110.  (Though I would not be surprised to see storylining to this effect, I am not sure the league wants this game to get outside two touchdowns at any point.  I'd throw $10, the minimum bet at the Superbook, at the Under on that one -- given the money to lose.)
  • Now for one I'd definitely lay money on, especially at the odds and the Buffalo Wild Wings promotion:  Overtime.  Yes is +700.  (All day.)
  • Lead change in the 4th quarter?  (I'm not sure what it means if the game is tied.)  Yes +230 No -280)
  • Defensive or Special Teams TD?  Yes +200, No -250.
  • Will the score be again tied after 0-0 after a DISTINCT score?  (By a distinct score, as above, they define it as including all conversions.)  Yes -125, No +105 (That's another one which would get at least a $10 on, and maybe more, depending on the bankroll.)
  • Total for New England:  Over/Under 30, normal -110 either way.
  • Rams are 28 1/2, same principle.
  • There are spreads on one team's full-game total vs. the other team in a half (the full-game team is giving a couple touchdowns).
There are 17 pages of just Super Bowl bets.  But one of the famous quirks of Super Bowl Sunday is bets which involve not only events in the Super Bowl, but events outside it.

Which will have more?
  • The Rams (giving a half point), or Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks against Washington tonight?
  • The Patriots (giving a point and a half) or Stephen Curry vs. the Lakers tonight?
  • Stephen Curry, free throws missed tonight (+120) in a pick-em with Rob Gronkowski touchdowns (-140).  (He averages 4/8 free throws a game and makes 4.5.)
  • A couple of LeBron props have been removed.  He's recovering from injury.
  • There are two games in the one-bid Horizon League in college basketball tomorrow.   Total all of their points and give 8 1/2 to Jared Goff's passing yards tomorrow.
  • An investment one for later:  A pick-em at normal -110 between the number of touchdowns in the Super Bowl and the number of  game wins the Golden Knights get in THIS YEAR'S playoffs.
  • Why was I so specific?  There's also one at series wins for the Golden Knights vs. fumbles lost in the Super Bowl.
And the last page is Super Bowl MVP:  Tom Brady is even money, largely seen as the most-likely candidate if the favorites win.  Jared Goff is 2-1.  The next shortest bet is on all other players than the main offensive starters (and one or two defensive players) at 15-1.

Friday, February 1, 2019

Super Bowl LIII(E), The Past vs. Thje Future: A year's worth of bandwagoning in ten days...

Looking for angles on Friday, and I saw a good one which Brian Tuohy reposted...
Bloomberg reports today that the Rams merchandise store online sold as much Rams merchandise in ten days as it did the Rams' entire first season back in Los Angeles...

A cool $3,500,000.

That is eight times the amount they got the ten days beforehand.

There's already been one Super Bowl rig-job I would attribute mainly to merchandising:  Steelers over Cardinals.