Tuesday, February 25, 2020
WWE Update: Retract the retraction.
In an announcement today, Sean Ross Sapp's information from WWE on the night WrestleVotes wrote their article was wrong -- Samoa Joe HAS been suspended 30 days for the Wellness Policy.
Monday, February 24, 2020
MLB: The Astros Invoke Mayer
In a move anyone with any knowledge of the situation would expect, Yahoo! Sports today reports through David Kaplan of The Athletic that a lawsuit filed by daily fantasy sports players against the Astros, Red Sox, and MLB.
Now, the suit might be jumping the gun on the Red Sox, as MLB has not come out with their findings yet.
But stop me if you've heard these defenses before:
In fact, the Red Sox DIRECTLY used that precedent.
It is abjectly LEGAL for a sports league to match-fix (at least with respect to the fans), as these DFS players are going to find out when this lawsuit gets dismissed, and probably with prejudice.
The only lawsuit which MAY have a chance is Bolsinger's. Mayer only speaks of a fan's right or lack of same. There has been little, if anything, to address a player who can prove wrong.
If Bolsinger also fails, the right of a sports league to conspire with teams to ensure a result will be effectively absolute.
Now, the suit might be jumping the gun on the Red Sox, as MLB has not come out with their findings yet.
But stop me if you've heard these defenses before:
- “It is well established … that attendees or viewers at sporting events have no express or implied right to an event free of penalties, undisclosed injuries, rules violations, cheating, or similar conduct, and claims asserting such a right have been repeatedly dismissed,”
- “Even accepting the Complaint’s allegations as true, the alleged sign-stealing does not in itself render false any statement about the team’s strengths and successes.
- “If there is any implied understanding of fans, it is that rule infractions will occur during the games.”
- The article continues: "MLB and the Boston Red Sox, also named in the lawsuit, largely echoed Houston’s arguments. They also pointed to an appeals court ruling on a lawsuit brought by a New York Jets fan over the New England Patriots’ Spygate allegations which stated that fans cannot sue over alleged cheating."
In fact, the Red Sox DIRECTLY used that precedent.
It is abjectly LEGAL for a sports league to match-fix (at least with respect to the fans), as these DFS players are going to find out when this lawsuit gets dismissed, and probably with prejudice.
The only lawsuit which MAY have a chance is Bolsinger's. Mayer only speaks of a fan's right or lack of same. There has been little, if anything, to address a player who can prove wrong.
If Bolsinger also fails, the right of a sports league to conspire with teams to ensure a result will be effectively absolute.
Sunday, February 23, 2020
MLB: The Chaos Begins, And It Isn't Even Going To Count For Another Six Weeks
Wow.
Just. Fucking. Wow.
Today was the first spring-training game for the Houston Astros -- and this was in THEIR OWN (Spring Training) STADIUM, mind you.
The biggest story coming out of it were heckling fans having their signs taken away, WWE style!!
...
...
This is going to get to the point where serious consideration might have to be given, at some point, to suspending the season.
I'm not (just -- because we've already now had enough of a pocket of this in Italy that several top-flight soccer matches in the country were postponed this weekend) talking about the Coronavirus.
This, all within about 36 hours of the announcement that some fan has started to invoke the kids and families and threatened them.
Look, I know the dark side of fandom better than almost anybody. LEAVE THE FUCKING FAMILIES OUT OF THIS!
We now have this happening on Day One of games in February. Six weeks from when the games are going to count.
And the whole situation out of Boston is still not announced as to what the fucking Hell Manfred is going to do about all of that!!
--
Oh, that...
We now have THREE SEPARATE REPORTS which appear to indicate that the only defense with the Astros is coming from...
THE BOSTON RED SOX.
--
If there's anything the events of especially the last forty-eight hours are going to do, they are going to show the world why the titles had to go back and vacate.
You, now, not only have angry PLAYERS, but the FANS are going to get involved with this too.
I'm giving it about April 15th. Someone from the Astros (or probably from the just-as-guilty Red Sox) is going to get put out.
I don't see how this season is going to be able to feasibly proceed.
Why? Take a look at the facts.
The last three American League Championships and two of the last three World Series are dirty.
And they have happened with the full advice, consent, and encouragement of the Commissioner's Office of Major League Baseball.
And this on top of the match-fixing of juicing the balls to high Heaven last year.
There's a reason Rob Manfred has come out as completely impotent here: HE'S PART OF THIS SCHEME.
Anyone who watched those two World Series with even a skeptical eye knew that the Dodgers got screwed. And this is just another layer on the screw-job.
I really have to start asking the question of how they expect to be able to play count-able games with either of these two teams in this environment.
Almost by design, the Dodgers play neither the Red Sox nor Astros this year -- but you know there are other aggrieved parties.
Stay tuned. The turbulence is just beginning.
Just. Fucking. Wow.
Today was the first spring-training game for the Houston Astros -- and this was in THEIR OWN (Spring Training) STADIUM, mind you.
The biggest story coming out of it were heckling fans having their signs taken away, WWE style!!
...
...
This is going to get to the point where serious consideration might have to be given, at some point, to suspending the season.
I'm not (just -- because we've already now had enough of a pocket of this in Italy that several top-flight soccer matches in the country were postponed this weekend) talking about the Coronavirus.
This, all within about 36 hours of the announcement that some fan has started to invoke the kids and families and threatened them.
Look, I know the dark side of fandom better than almost anybody. LEAVE THE FUCKING FAMILIES OUT OF THIS!
We now have this happening on Day One of games in February. Six weeks from when the games are going to count.
And the whole situation out of Boston is still not announced as to what the fucking Hell Manfred is going to do about all of that!!
--
Oh, that...
We now have THREE SEPARATE REPORTS which appear to indicate that the only defense with the Astros is coming from...
THE BOSTON RED SOX.
--
If there's anything the events of especially the last forty-eight hours are going to do, they are going to show the world why the titles had to go back and vacate.
You, now, not only have angry PLAYERS, but the FANS are going to get involved with this too.
I'm giving it about April 15th. Someone from the Astros (or probably from the just-as-guilty Red Sox) is going to get put out.
I don't see how this season is going to be able to feasibly proceed.
Why? Take a look at the facts.
The last three American League Championships and two of the last three World Series are dirty.
And they have happened with the full advice, consent, and encouragement of the Commissioner's Office of Major League Baseball.
And this on top of the match-fixing of juicing the balls to high Heaven last year.
There's a reason Rob Manfred has come out as completely impotent here: HE'S PART OF THIS SCHEME.
Anyone who watched those two World Series with even a skeptical eye knew that the Dodgers got screwed. And this is just another layer on the screw-job.
I really have to start asking the question of how they expect to be able to play count-able games with either of these two teams in this environment.
Almost by design, the Dodgers play neither the Red Sox nor Astros this year -- but you know there are other aggrieved parties.
Stay tuned. The turbulence is just beginning.
Thursday, February 20, 2020
I may have to take something back -- this lawsuit might turn out to be interesting...
I don't know if I discussed this or not, but, if I did, I seemed to lump this in with Mayer vs. Belichick, New England Patriots, and National Football League in thinking the guy had no case.
Now I read the backstory, and this might well get interesting.
ESPN reports today that Astros owner Jim Crane and Derek Vigoa, a staffer in baseball operations for the Astros involved in the scheme, have been added to ex-Blue Jays reliever Mike Bolsinger's lawsuit against the team.
It turns out he now has evidence to believe they ended his career. From that website I told you about that the Astros fan came up with to investigate which games and which and how many pitches were being sign-stolen, it was established that Bolsinger had 12 of his 29 pitches tipped to the Astros by the illegal scheme.
He got one out, gave up four runs, and it was his last major-league outing.
This is where it gets interesting. The only question, now, is eventually where this case gets tried.
Now I read the backstory, and this might well get interesting.
ESPN reports today that Astros owner Jim Crane and Derek Vigoa, a staffer in baseball operations for the Astros involved in the scheme, have been added to ex-Blue Jays reliever Mike Bolsinger's lawsuit against the team.
It turns out he now has evidence to believe they ended his career. From that website I told you about that the Astros fan came up with to investigate which games and which and how many pitches were being sign-stolen, it was established that Bolsinger had 12 of his 29 pitches tipped to the Astros by the illegal scheme.
He got one out, gave up four runs, and it was his last major-league outing.
This is where it gets interesting. The only question, now, is eventually where this case gets tried.
Friday, February 14, 2020
UEFA Throws Man City out of the Champions' League, but only AFTER this season.
First, the headline. Then the buried lede.
Manchester City has been thrown out of the Champions' League for two full seasons after running afoul of what is called "Financial Fair Play".
For overstating sponsorship deals in multiple reports over the course of five seasons (2012 to 2016), they're banned from all UEFA competition and fined 30,000,000 Euros.
Manchester City will appeal, as UEFA recognizes it's right (which is why the full report will not be published), to a trial at a Council for Arbitration of Sport. (CAS)
But there's a problem here.
They won two Premier League championships in that period. (2011-12, and the first filing problem was for the year 2012 -- and 2013-14)
(They've also won two more since.)
But the point here is: I guess the only reason they would be allowed to complete this situation is on the appeal to the CAS -- the penalty should've included disqualification from the 2020 Champs League playoffs.
Under the rules, since England gets 4 Champions League spots, any spot won by Manchester City will graduate downward to the next team down.
This could open up a significant situation, because five teams are within four points of that fifth-spot -- which usually only is a direct Europa League spot.
Manchester City has been thrown out of the Champions' League for two full seasons after running afoul of what is called "Financial Fair Play".
For overstating sponsorship deals in multiple reports over the course of five seasons (2012 to 2016), they're banned from all UEFA competition and fined 30,000,000 Euros.
Manchester City will appeal, as UEFA recognizes it's right (which is why the full report will not be published), to a trial at a Council for Arbitration of Sport. (CAS)
But there's a problem here.
They won two Premier League championships in that period. (2011-12, and the first filing problem was for the year 2012 -- and 2013-14)
(They've also won two more since.)
But the point here is: I guess the only reason they would be allowed to complete this situation is on the appeal to the CAS -- the penalty should've included disqualification from the 2020 Champs League playoffs.
Under the rules, since England gets 4 Champions League spots, any spot won by Manchester City will graduate downward to the next team down.
This could open up a significant situation, because five teams are within four points of that fifth-spot -- which usually only is a direct Europa League spot.
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Rob Manfred Wants Someone To Die This Year From 100 MPH To The Head
The Astros finally spoke up, apologized for directly nothing, and the owner of the team actually said that stealing signs has no impact on the game of baseball.
Let this process for a second -- the owner of the Houston Astros actually believes that stealing signs did nothing to grant his team an advantage.
If that's the case, you are then declaring the entire concept of signs to be obsolete!
You, sir, are a liar -- and you're gonna get somebody killed, because that's EXACTLY what I think the Commissioner wants: The entire league so pissed off that, the first opportunity someone aggrieved gets, it's no longer 85 in the rump.
It's 100 to the head!!!
The Houston Astros have won 2 American League titles and a World Series through rigging and match-fixing, including sign-stealing.
Astros have their first rematch with the Yankees in mid-May in Houston.
They have four at New York -- last week of the season.
Inter-league play does not have the Astros facing the Dodgers.
Let this process for a second -- the owner of the Houston Astros actually believes that stealing signs did nothing to grant his team an advantage.
If that's the case, you are then declaring the entire concept of signs to be obsolete!
You, sir, are a liar -- and you're gonna get somebody killed, because that's EXACTLY what I think the Commissioner wants: The entire league so pissed off that, the first opportunity someone aggrieved gets, it's no longer 85 in the rump.
It's 100 to the head!!!
The Houston Astros have won 2 American League titles and a World Series through rigging and match-fixing, including sign-stealing.
Astros have their first rematch with the Yankees in mid-May in Houston.
They have four at New York -- last week of the season.
Inter-league play does not have the Astros facing the Dodgers.
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
Two Updates Which Suck, But Neither Should Surprise Anyone
- Myles Garrett has been reinstated.
But no one can be surprised because, frankly, I think this kind of incident is what the NFL wants.
I would not have reinstated him before I investigate the last 18 months of the Cleveland Browns franchise. But that's just me.
- Another rape/sexual assault scandal at Ohio State.
Rape and kidnapping charges in a Columbus apartment -- and they both were prominent members of the team, playing in almost every game the last three years.
What happened, boys? That you haven't won anything meaningful yet means you can't be the Big Rapist Man On Campus???
Friday, February 7, 2020
Updates: WWE not doing so hot, and the Astros GM knew in 2016...
Couple of updates:
House show business cratering.
Now some very real talk of taking some of the initial PPV broadcasts off the Network and restore them to PPV through streaming partners like AEW does Bleacher Report and several indies do Fite.tv.
That would no less than kill the Network.
But you take the losses since the firings of the two vice presidents in the company a week ago, that's about $1.5 billion off the market cap of WWE in the last week.
And now rumblings that various megacorps like Disney and Amazon might make plays for the company.
But I keep telling people: It does nothing if it's clear that, one reason or another, Manfred wants that team to win.
But Keith Olbermann might well have the appropriate punishments right here...
- Add another 10% drop in the stock price of WWE on Thursday after Vince McMahon was forced to eep, ahk, ork, and ah ah his way through a bad investor's call...
House show business cratering.
Now some very real talk of taking some of the initial PPV broadcasts off the Network and restore them to PPV through streaming partners like AEW does Bleacher Report and several indies do Fite.tv.
That would no less than kill the Network.
But you take the losses since the firings of the two vice presidents in the company a week ago, that's about $1.5 billion off the market cap of WWE in the last week.
And now rumblings that various megacorps like Disney and Amazon might make plays for the company.
- It's behind a Wall Street Journal paywall... But it's now clear that a spreadsheet detailing the sign-stealing with the Houston Astros was presented to the team's general manager in late 2016.
But I keep telling people: It does nothing if it's clear that, one reason or another, Manfred wants that team to win.
But Keith Olbermann might well have the appropriate punishments right here...
Ok. The Astros front office contributed algorithms to their sign stealing as early as 2016.— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) February 7, 2020
They were in on it.
Vacate the 2017 World Series title. Hell, withdraw the franchise. Let everybody who wants to sue, @MLB, sue. https://t.co/rdieebs5Uc
Tuesday, February 4, 2020
WWE Update: Tight to the chest, but one major possible tell...
No official word as of yet from WWE regarding any further Wellness Policy suspensions, other than what was reported last night that the WWE was vehemently denying WrestleVotes' report that Samoa Joe was being suspended.
There are still at least two other names being looked at: Rusev, who was nowhere to be found last night while his main opponent, Bobby Lashley, fought a #1 contender match main event last night.
He's been out two weeks now, but no announcement has been forthcoming regarding any possible suspension.
The other is the big one, Rey Mysterio, and if he has popped, he's fired, for that's his third violation.
And now word today that an early list, purported to be the second and third level VIP performers for Axxess' autograph sessions, only had one error.
(There are three tiers this year. The top tier, at $350, gets you front of line for everyone else but the other two tiers. (Take it from someone who has attended Axxess -- this is a GIGANTIC advantage.) The second tier, at about $200, is the upper tier of dedicated VIP performers. The third tier, at about $125, is the lower tier.)
The spoiled list had Rey and Cain Velasquez doing 1 PM Saturday on the lower tier of VIP performers. They have now been replaced with The Miz and John Morrison.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm... No question it's a sensitive situation for WWE -- as they usually feel they have to come public with Wellness suspensions, but this is it for Mysterio if he has failed a third time!
There are still at least two other names being looked at: Rusev, who was nowhere to be found last night while his main opponent, Bobby Lashley, fought a #1 contender match main event last night.
He's been out two weeks now, but no announcement has been forthcoming regarding any possible suspension.
The other is the big one, Rey Mysterio, and if he has popped, he's fired, for that's his third violation.
And now word today that an early list, purported to be the second and third level VIP performers for Axxess' autograph sessions, only had one error.
(There are three tiers this year. The top tier, at $350, gets you front of line for everyone else but the other two tiers. (Take it from someone who has attended Axxess -- this is a GIGANTIC advantage.) The second tier, at about $200, is the upper tier of dedicated VIP performers. The third tier, at about $125, is the lower tier.)
The spoiled list had Rey and Cain Velasquez doing 1 PM Saturday on the lower tier of VIP performers. They have now been replaced with The Miz and John Morrison.
Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm... No question it's a sensitive situation for WWE -- as they usually feel they have to come public with Wellness suspensions, but this is it for Mysterio if he has failed a third time!
Monday, February 3, 2020
Sounds like the WWE shit is hitting the fan again, right in time for Saudi Arabia end of this month!!
Vince McMahon launches XFL II this weekend.
His main job is not looking too hot at the moment:
Taking viewer ratings as the numbers, the 16 competitive weeks have gone 12 for AEW, 3 for NXT (the first invasion week for Survivor Series, Thanksgiving Eve, and the last show before Christmas), with 1 even, according to ShowBuzz Daily.
Michelle Wilson began as a Vice President of Marketing in 2009, became Chief Marketing Officer in 2011.
Both were fired Thursday.
And that's just the stuff out of the ring. It appears there is a spate of drug abuse or other Wellness Policy problems within the company the last couple of months:
After everything that took place at the last Saudi Arabia situation in October, could we legitimately be seeing WWE talents take Wellness Policy suspensions intentionally to avoid the February 27th Saudi Arabia card?
We already know there is word that some dissatisfied talents were considering last year being fired under the Wellness Policy to get out from under WWE and take their chances elsewhere.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Wrestling journalist Sean Sapp, however, has stated the WWE has denied that Samoa Joe is suspended.
His main job is not looking too hot at the moment:
- His attempts to scuttle the Khan family's startup AEW promotion have largely failed.
Taking viewer ratings as the numbers, the 16 competitive weeks have gone 12 for AEW, 3 for NXT (the first invasion week for Survivor Series, Thanksgiving Eve, and the last show before Christmas), with 1 even, according to ShowBuzz Daily.
- Ratings are cratering for long-time USA programming Monday Night Raw.
- It appears, largely as a result of that, the two major corporate underlings other than the McMahon family are gone from the company.
Michelle Wilson began as a Vice President of Marketing in 2009, became Chief Marketing Officer in 2011.
Both were fired Thursday.
- As a result, WWE public stock lost over 20% of it's value on Friday from $62.31 to $48.88.
- And another $2.80 to $46.08.
And that's just the stuff out of the ring. It appears there is a spate of drug abuse or other Wellness Policy problems within the company the last couple of months:
- Tag Team Contender Robert Roode got his first strike in December and served a 30-day suspension.
- Low-card wrestler (who most WWE fans would not even know is still with the company!) Primo Colon also got suspended 30 days for Strike One in December. Both suspensions have been served.
- Raw lost it's secondary singles champion last week. The WWE announced that, as of Tuesday, Andrade was suspended 30 days for Strike One. His suspension runs out February 27th. He is the United States Champion -- and, as of right now, still holds the championship.
- However, the big news might be forthcoming. There are apparently more suspensions for the Wellness Policy in the pipeline. At least one major sheet has reported Samoa Joe, after coming off one injury and possibly a legitimate concussion, is about to reported as suspended. No confirmation yet.
- The biggest news, however, would be another probable write-off from Raw this evening. After a substitute (Carillo's legitimate cousin!) was given from 205 Live to keep Humberto Carillo (who was feuding with Andrade) busy for the aforementioned Andrade suspension, Rey Mysterio came out and got the same "DDT to the concrete" spot from said substitute that Andrade received from Carillo before his suspension.
- The reason that news is so big? If Mysterio is sanctioned under the Wellness Policy for something new, he would be fired from WWE unless an exception is made. It would be Strike Three.
- And there's word there may even be MORE suspensions in line. One name being mentioned is Rusev.
After everything that took place at the last Saudi Arabia situation in October, could we legitimately be seeing WWE talents take Wellness Policy suspensions intentionally to avoid the February 27th Saudi Arabia card?
We already know there is word that some dissatisfied talents were considering last year being fired under the Wellness Policy to get out from under WWE and take their chances elsewhere.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Wrestling journalist Sean Sapp, however, has stated the WWE has denied that Samoa Joe is suspended.
In regards to the rumors of possible suspensions coming in WWE, top staff within the company have vehemently denied to https://t.co/mWs3QF7zUn and https://t.co/jy8u4a7WDa that Samoa Joe is suspended— Sean Ross Sapp of Fightful.com (@SeanRossSapp) February 4, 2020
Super Bowl LIV, The Made Man: More Comments.
- If you want to see Donald Trump's America through the eyes of the NFL, with the exception of the kid representing the "Next Hundred Years" of the NFL, this was it.
- Nowhere, other than that Trump got his campaign ad before the game and Bloomberg's was buried after halftime, was that more apparent than the burlesque show masquerading as a halftime show.
- Not Concerned Mommies of America about this at all, but that was nothing short of a bootyfest -- Shakira chooses to and has significant talent, but I've always felt "Jenny From The Block" never really had that much talent except showing skin.
- Game was probably one of the cleanest, as far as bullshit, in twenty years of Super Bowls (I guess the New Orleans boycott from last year was worth SOMETHING), but the NFL still got what it wanted -- the man who's going to take this league into the 2020's.
- No holding penalties during main play (one on a kickoff return), no personal fouls of any kind.
- Commercials were better than most years. Liked the recurring Tide guy and the Bill Murray "Groundhog Day" spots.
- Someone has got to explain to me, though, how the Church of Scientology gets one in the local spots every... damn... year.
Sunday, February 2, 2020
Super Bowl LIV: NFL has a new Made Man.
Keep this one quick, as it's getting late and the computer is slightly cranky.
Need to look at one play, and I think everyone knows what it is.
It looks like it's within a frame, but it looks like the 24-20 touchdown should not have counted.
It looks like he crossed the plane while his other foot was already out of bounds, and, one frame previous, as FOX showed, he wasn't over the line yet.
I'll probably look at it tomorrow. I'm tired, the computer's cranky.
But one thing is for certain: The NFL has it's next Made Man in Patrick Mahomes.
Need to look at one play, and I think everyone knows what it is.
It looks like it's within a frame, but it looks like the 24-20 touchdown should not have counted.
It looks like he crossed the plane while his other foot was already out of bounds, and, one frame previous, as FOX showed, he wasn't over the line yet.
I'll probably look at it tomorrow. I'm tired, the computer's cranky.
But one thing is for certain: The NFL has it's next Made Man in Patrick Mahomes.
Super Bowl LIV: Made Man vs. Silicon Valley: The SuperFraud Pick -- Guess I gotta make one...
Two things about this Super Bowl:
And then there's one more angle to this: Vegas.
Some side-lights:
The Mattress Mack bet of $1,000,000 (SF +120 to win) is still the biggest bet the books have accepted on the game.
The interesting bet on the Top Ten List ESPN Chalk publishes is the current #10: A $267,600 bet at -118 that Damien Williams is held under 53.5 rushing yards.
An interesting prop bet a lot of people are sucking up and taking is what's called an "Octopus". You can get 10-1 that the same player will score a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the game.
Most books are reporting that basically a coin-flip at 54 total has made for acceptable wagering on balance so that nothing (sans, say, that Octopus that would cost six figures!) appears to significantly impact the books' bottom line.
Jeff Stone at the MGM is saying best for the books would be Chiefs and Under.
(And I'd like to know what he's smoking to think he gets that!!)
Big smart money coming in on the under at 54, causing CG Technology to move to 53.5.
As of the start of the day, Vegas is slanting to the Chiefs, but FanDuel's casinos have an even split.
So let's pull up VegasInsider for one more look at the numbers at high noon, 3 1/2 hours before kickoff:
The total IS now down to 53.5, indicating much late money on the under.
Chiefs are still the favorite: -1 at the William Hill, -1.5 at the Superbook.
Money Line is 50-50 at the William Hill.
And that took out basically the one real angle I had -- figuring Vegas almost never loses on the Super Bowl.
Yeah, I think I'll still go with what I think is going to happen here...
No one expected 16-3 last year, but the fact is that I do believe that, though Mahomes is going to get his $40M/year (he may have to wait a year for that deal, though, late word this week...), there's a reason this defense in SF is going to be pimped.
Prediction: San Francisco 21 - Kansas City 17.
Though I will say if the game gets into the 30s, then invert it all, but I don't think so.
Now watch me look like an idiot. :)
- This has been one of the quietest Super Bowl weeks in memory. Of course, the tragedy from last Sunday may have had an inordinate amount to do with that, so the less said about that, the better...
- This is one of the tougher Super Bowls to make a call on.
- For Kansas City, it basically begins and ends with Patrick Mahomes, the need for the NFL for a new Made Man, and the fact that Mahomes appears to be that Made Man.
- For the 49ers, it pretty much comes down to Defense Wins Championships. I know I made a bit of a side discussion about the NFL moving an AFC unsustainable to Levi's Stadium, but, as I said then, there's nothing to that theory at all in public. That's more just a gut hunch on my part.
And then there's one more angle to this: Vegas.
Some side-lights:
The Mattress Mack bet of $1,000,000 (SF +120 to win) is still the biggest bet the books have accepted on the game.
The interesting bet on the Top Ten List ESPN Chalk publishes is the current #10: A $267,600 bet at -118 that Damien Williams is held under 53.5 rushing yards.
An interesting prop bet a lot of people are sucking up and taking is what's called an "Octopus". You can get 10-1 that the same player will score a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the game.
Most books are reporting that basically a coin-flip at 54 total has made for acceptable wagering on balance so that nothing (sans, say, that Octopus that would cost six figures!) appears to significantly impact the books' bottom line.
Jeff Stone at the MGM is saying best for the books would be Chiefs and Under.
(And I'd like to know what he's smoking to think he gets that!!)
Big smart money coming in on the under at 54, causing CG Technology to move to 53.5.
As of the start of the day, Vegas is slanting to the Chiefs, but FanDuel's casinos have an even split.
So let's pull up VegasInsider for one more look at the numbers at high noon, 3 1/2 hours before kickoff:
The total IS now down to 53.5, indicating much late money on the under.
Chiefs are still the favorite: -1 at the William Hill, -1.5 at the Superbook.
Money Line is 50-50 at the William Hill.
And that took out basically the one real angle I had -- figuring Vegas almost never loses on the Super Bowl.
Yeah, I think I'll still go with what I think is going to happen here...
No one expected 16-3 last year, but the fact is that I do believe that, though Mahomes is going to get his $40M/year (he may have to wait a year for that deal, though, late word this week...), there's a reason this defense in SF is going to be pimped.
Prediction: San Francisco 21 - Kansas City 17.
Though I will say if the game gets into the 30s, then invert it all, but I don't think so.
Now watch me look like an idiot. :)
Saturday, February 1, 2020
Super Bowl LIV: Made Man vs. Silicon Valley: Do we have this year's Todd Gurley or LeRoy Butler?
Can't confirm this would be the difference -- although the view of any edge in what is considered one of the most competitive Super Bowls in memory is very difficult (and that's both shoot AND work!) -- but NFL Insider Ian Rapoport reports today:
One storyline to watch for Super Bowl LIV: Sounds like #Chiefs RB LeSean McCoy may be inactive tomorrow, sources say. That’s the way it’s heading at this point. Two RBs would be active, but KC would use the spot to add depth on the D-line or another key area.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) February 1, 2020
Super Bowl LIV: Made Man vs. Silicon Valley. Ticket interest near all-time highs.
I think it's clear the NFL has cleanly sold this game like it is going to be frighteningly close and exciting.
Secondary market ticket prices for tomorrow's game according to TicketIQ show that the average ticket for the Super Bowl is $8,264 -- and that represents a near-doubling from last year's game.
Only game that comes close is the $9,723 Super Bowl XLIX drew -- and that was the pickoff at the goal line to stop the Beast Mode/Legion of Boom dynasty to take hold.
(And who's one of the big guns on that SF defense? Hello, Richard Sherman!)
The Superbook has moved to KC -1.5 -- largely on the basis of three six-figure spread bets on the Chiefs -1 forcing their hand.
William Hill is still at KC -1, according to VegasInsider.
Total now stands at 54.
Secondary market ticket prices for tomorrow's game according to TicketIQ show that the average ticket for the Super Bowl is $8,264 -- and that represents a near-doubling from last year's game.
Only game that comes close is the $9,723 Super Bowl XLIX drew -- and that was the pickoff at the goal line to stop the Beast Mode/Legion of Boom dynasty to take hold.
(And who's one of the big guns on that SF defense? Hello, Richard Sherman!)
The Superbook has moved to KC -1.5 -- largely on the basis of three six-figure spread bets on the Chiefs -1 forcing their hand.
William Hill is still at KC -1, according to VegasInsider.
Total now stands at 54.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)