Super Bowl LIV: Made Man vs. Silicon Valley: The SuperFraud Pick -- Guess I gotta make one...

Two things about this Super Bowl:

• This has been one of the quietest Super Bowl weeks in memory.  Of course, the tragedy from last Sunday may have had an inordinate amount to do with that, so the less said about that, the better...
• This is one of the tougher Super Bowls to make a call on.

If there is an example of the theory I have that both sides, when you get this far, have to have an angle, this is it.

• For Kansas City, it basically begins and ends with Patrick Mahomes, the need for the NFL for a new Made Man, and the fact that Mahomes appears to be that Made Man.
• For the 49ers, it pretty much comes down to Defense Wins Championships.  I know I made a bit of a side discussion about the NFL moving an AFC unsustainable to Levi's Stadium, but, as I said then, there's nothing to that theory at all in public.  That's more just a gut hunch on my part.

Anyhow, I think one thing is clear:  If this game is to be done in any degree of a non-rigged shoot, look for a replay of Super Bowl XXXVII.  Defense ALWAYS wins the Big Offense vs. Big Defense game in a shoot.

And then there's one more angle to this:  Vegas.

Some side-lights:

The Mattress Mack bet of $1,000,000 (SF +120 to win) is still the biggest bet the books have accepted on the game.

The interesting bet on the Top Ten List ESPN Chalk publishes is the current #10:  A $267,600 bet at -118 that Damien Williams is held under 53.5 rushing yards.

An interesting prop bet a lot of people are sucking up and taking is what's called an "Octopus".  You can get 10-1 that the same player will score a touchdown and a two-point conversion in the game.

Most books are reporting that basically a coin-flip at 54 total has made for acceptable wagering on balance so that nothing (sans, say, that Octopus that would cost six figures!) appears to significantly impact the books' bottom line.

Jeff Stone at the MGM is saying best for the books would be Chiefs and Under.

(And I'd like to know what he's smoking to think he gets that!!)

Big smart money coming in on the under at 54, causing CG Technology to move to 53.5.

As of the start of the day, Vegas is slanting to the Chiefs, but FanDuel's casinos have an even split.

So let's pull up VegasInsider for one more look at the numbers at high noon, 3 1/2 hours before kickoff:

The total IS now down to 53.5, indicating much late money on the under.

Chiefs are still the favorite:  -1 at the William Hill, -1.5 at the Superbook.

Money Line is 50-50 at the William Hill.

And that took out basically the one real angle I had -- figuring Vegas almost never loses on the Super Bowl.

Yeah, I think I'll still go with what I think is going to happen here...

No one expected 16-3 last year, but the fact is that I do believe that, though Mahomes is going to get his $40M/year (he may have to wait a year for that deal, though, late word this week...), there's a reason this defense in SF is going to be pimped.

Prediction:  San Francisco 21 - Kansas City 17.

Though I will say if the game gets into the 30s, then invert it all, but I don't think so.

Now watch me look like an idiot.  :)