Saturday, January 25, 2020

Super Bowl LIV: Made Man vs. Silicon Valley: The biggest bets so far

ESPN is keeping track of the betting for Super Bowl LIV in Miami between the Chiefs and 49ers.

In a separate article, they found the winners of a number of six- and seven-figure Vegas handicapping pools (it took about 70% against the number to win the Supercontest for nearly $1.5 million, as one example), and the winners of the Circa Sports Pro Million, the SugarHouse/BetRivers, and the Supercontest have all said Defense Wins Championships and taken the underdog 49ers at +1.

The current line, as of midnight Pacific Standard Time January 25, according to Vegas Insider:

Both William Hill and the Westgate have the line at KC -1 and the total at 54 1/2.

As of the release of the Superbook's prop bet book, the bets above are regular juice, and you're paying -105 to bet the 49ers to win, -115 to bet the Chiefs.

As of the release of the William Hill prop bet book, 49ers winning is even money, Chiefs is -120.

It opened at -1 1/2 for KC, and is still there at the MGM and Stations -- the rest are at -1.

The MGM books and Circa Sports have the total at a flat 54.  All the others, 54 1/2.

Long way to go on that.

But here are the largest bets as of noon yesterday, David Purdum and Ben Fawkes reporting them for ESPN Chalk:
  • Largest one they could find, and by A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE, is a $684,000 DraftKings New Jersey bet on Tuesday.  It was one of the few places you could actually get 49ers +2 and pay -114 for it.  That bet, if it comes through, is worth a cool six hundred grand!
  • The Superbook released their book of parlays, and had a stream of bettors all day yesterday, so large they had to restrict the bettors to two bets from the book and then the back of the line if they wanted to do more.
  • MGM reported Thursday that twice as much money is coming in on the Chiefs, but that only about 1/20 of the betting has taken place.
  • The total opened at 51.5, and money is 12 to 1 over, and that's why it has already moved three points.
  • My comment:  If the game even gets to that number, KC wins and easily.
  • As of Wednesday, over 90% of the bets and money in New Jersey at DraftKings was on the over.
And if you want to see how much of a sucker the NFL (and it's rigging) has made out of Las Vegas bettors...  According to this article:
  • Only TWICE have the Vegas books lost money on the Super Bowl.
  • In the last three decades, the net loss for bettors on the game is almost $175 million, an average of almost $6,000,000 a Super Bowl.
  • Against the spread in the history of the Super Bowl, basically .500 -- 26-25-2.
  • And the over is 26-25-1 -- there was no total posted anywhere for the first Super Bowl.
  • Fifteen states have now legalized sports gambling.

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