The AFC Playoff Picture is unchanged from the last post, but I will port it over.
AFC:
1) Baltimore LOCKED
2) New England LOCKED
3) Kansas City -- WON AFC WEST -- clinches #3 with a win over the Chargers next week or a Houston loss
4) Houston -- WON AFC SOUTH -- gets #3 with a win over Tennessee and a Kansas City loss
5) Buffalo LOCKED
6) Tennessee -- in playoffs with a win over Houston or a Pittsburgh loss and either an Indy loss or an Oakland loss.
OUT BUT A CHANCE:
Pittsburgh -- in playoffs with a win over Baltimore and a Tennessee loss
And I stand corrected, which adds a couple more games to the list.
Oakland is still in, but needed four results to break their way this week and they got them!
Now they need four more next week. They win, Baltimore wins, Houston
wins, Indianapolis wins. At that point, Oakland WOULD win Strength of
Victory for the #6 at 8-8.
So if I have the math right, there are only 3(-5) relevant games next week in the AFC:
KC vs. Chargers for wild-card seeding
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore for a shot at getting in for Pittsburgh
Tennessee vs. Houston for both.
(Indy vs. Jacksonville, but only indirectly and only if Baltimore and Houston win)
(Oakland vs. Denver if but only if Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Indy win early games)
The NFC picture, however, is interesting.
It currently stands as follows:
1) San Francisco (12-3), IN PLAYOFFS (HTH over Green Bay)
#1 if they beat Seattle Sunday night. #5 if they lose.
2) Green Bay (12-3), WON NFC NORTH (tonight)
First-round bye if they beat Detroit or Carolina beats New Orleans. If they beat Detroit and Seattle wins at home over San Francisco, Green Bay is the #1 seed. Can do no worse than #3.
3) New Orleans (12-3), WON NFC SOUTH
A win over Carolina and losses by San Francisco and Green Bay would get New Orleans the #1.
A win over Carolina and a loss by either Green Bay or San Francisco would get New Orleans the #2.
Any other scenario: #3.
4) Philadelphia (8-7)
Win and in. Lose and out unless Dallas also loses. NFC East Champion LOCKED to the #4.
5) Seattle (11-4), IN PLAYOFFS
Beat San Francisco, win division. #5 seed clinched with one game lead over Minnesota plus HTH win.
#1 seed if they win and BOTH Green Bay and New Orleans lose.
#2 seed if they win and Green Bay loses (and New Orleans wins).
#3 seed if they win otherwise.
6) Minnesota (10-5) LOCKED
OUT, STILL A CHANCE)
Dallas (7-8), must win and Philly must lose.
So, relevant for Week 17:
SF @ SEA, obviously.
Both NFC East games for the #4.
GB @ DET (for a first-round bye and maybe more)
NO @ CAR (depending on other concurrent results)
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So now to the Political Rankings:
AFC:
1) Baltimore
I think Larry Johnson is right. Pushing the Next Great Black Hope as a means to try to at least get some of the #NFLBoycott crowd back.
2) New England
Key no-call in that final drive against Buffalo puts them here. Still, how long can they keep Spygate III under wraps?
3) Kansas City
Don't look now, they've won five in a row since Mahomes' return. Only real question is whether the league might revert to the original narrative.
4) Houston
5) Buffalo
6) Pittsburgh
7) Oakland
Would not be shocked to see all the chips align for the Raiders to get a playoff game.
NFC:
Oof. Really vacillating here.
Pretty much San Francisco and Green Bay for NFL 100, or New Orleans for the makeup call.
As of right now:
1) Green Bay
And I really don't like it, but the "NFL 100" angle has to be taken into account. The San Francisco loss is huge, and the amount of Refball to get the Pack to 12-3 this year CANNOT be ignored.
2) New Orleans
I still don't like the angle because of the lawsuits, but...
3) San Francisco
"NFL 100"
4) Philadelphia
Could a 9-7 Philly sneak past all these guys to the Super Bowl?
5) Seattle
Too many suspensions.
6) Dallas
Ratings.
7) Minnesota
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