Here are the seeds right now, locks denoted:
AFC:
1) Baltimore LOCKED
2) New England LOCKED
3) Kansas City -- WON AFC WEST -- clinches #3 with a win over the Chargers next week or a Houston loss
4) Houston -- WON NFC SOUTH -- gets #3 with a win over Tennessee and a Kansas City loss
5) Buffalo LOCKED
6) Tennessee -- in playoffs with a win over Houston or a Pittsburgh loss
OUT BUT A CHANCE:
Pittsburgh -- in playoffs with a win over Baltimore and a Tennessee loss
And I stand corrected, which adds a couple more games to the list.
Oakland is still in, but needed four results to break their way this week and they got them!
Now they need four more next week. They win, Baltimore wins, Houston wins, Indianapolis wins. At that point, Oakland WOULD win Strength of Victory for the #6 at 8-8.
So if I have the math right, there are only 3 relevant games next week in the AFC:
KC vs. Chargers for wild-card seeding
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore for a shot at getting in for Pittsburgh
Tennessee vs. Houston for both.
(Indy vs. Jacksonville, but only indirectly and only if Baltimore and Houston win)
(Oakland vs. Denver if but only if Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Indy win early games)
NFC:
1) San Francisco -- IN PLAYOFFS -- needs to beat Seattle to win the #1 seed
2) Green Bay -- IN PLAYOFFS -- needs to beat Minnesota tomorrow night and Detroit a week from now to get at least the #2. If they do so and Seattle beats San Francisco, Green Bay is the #1 seed. They can still get the first-round bye (but only the #2), even if they lose -- but they must beat Detroit and Carolina must beat New Orleans. In that case, the winner of SF and Seattle is the #1 -- the loser is the #6 if Minnesota beats Chicago next week!!!
A lot still matters tomorrow night, though. New Orleans takes a major leap up the table if Minnesota wins tomorrow night.
3) New Orleans -- WON NFC SOUTH -- can get the #1 seed if they beat Carolina, Green Bay loses once and Seattle beats San Francisco. Can get the #2 if Green Bay wins out OR San Francisco beats Seattle. Is demoted to the #3 if they either lose to Carolina or Green Bay wins out and San Francisco beats Seattle.
4) Philadelphia -- Win and in, out if they lose and Dallas wins.
5) Seattle -- IN PLAYOFFS -- beat San Francisco and win the NFC West. Lose, they're a wildcard. If they win, they get the #1 seed if Minnesota beats Green Bay and New Orleans loses to Carolina. (There's a potential five-way tie at 12-4 between SEA, SF, GB, MIN, and NO. GB beats MIN in that scenario, Seattle beats San Francisco by the sweep. Seattle wins the three-way.)
They get the #2 if Green Bay loses to Minnesota, New Orleans beats Carolina, and they beat San Francisco.
If GB beats Minnesota in that scenario, Seattle is the #3.
If they lose, they're the #5 unless Green Bay beats Detroit, Carolina beats New Orleans, and Minnesota beats Chicago.
So they can be any seed but #4 at this point.
6) Minnesota -- IN PLAYOFFS -- needs to win out and have Green Bay lose out to win the NFC North. Can get the #2 and a first round bye if all that happens and Carolina beats New Orleans.
#3 if New Orleans beats Carolina in the above.
#6 unless all of the above happens for the SF/SEA loser to go to #6, at which point Minnesota would be the #5.
OUT BUT A CHANCE)
Dallas: Needs a win and a Philly loss.
So, next week (Monday night largely irrelevant at least with respect to the relevancy of Week 17):
SF at SEA: Obviously, winner wins the division and there's all sorts of implications. That's why that game was the Flex.
GB at DET: Possible division or bye (or Home Field Advantage if GB beats Minnesota Monday night).
CHI at MIN: Possible division (pending the other division game), bye (pending that and a couple other results), or seeding
NO at CAR: Home Field Advantage if they can be the last 13-3 standing, bye scenario. Game is relevant when played, but other results during the game may render it irrelevant (GB if they win tomorrow night).
PHI at NYG, WSH at DAL: NFC East
So nine of the 16 games will be relevant next week.
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