Super Bowl LIII(E): The Past vs. The Future: My Call on the Game

I was sitting here in some deliberation.

I was probably going to post it this afternoon anyway, but some information from ESPN's betting sources in Las Vegas about sources notifying of a major player in the game has solidified my pick.  (And all information here is from two different ESPN Chalk articles.)

"Bettor X" has made his call.  The person I am convinced has inside information on sports (and ran over the 2017 World Series and Super Bowl LII's upset as a result) placed a $1.5 million money-line bet at the William Hill at 2:30 Pacific yesterday afternoon, and followed it up with $300,000 at the South Point at 5:30.  And these followed $2 million at the MGM Grand Thursday night.

Before I get to the pick and my reasoning behind it, some other interesting tidbits:

• As of noon yesterday:  Tickets are 3 to 1 for the Rams, money is 3 to 1 for the Patriots in the newly-legal BetStars online sportsbook in the state of New Jersey.
• Basically, this mirrors much of the information which has come in over two weeks -- the money is 75-80% New England on this game.
• CG Technology, who, IIRC, runs the Tropicana sportsbook now, had a number of interesting thoughts, as of at least earlier in the week, for some of the props...

Bettors there think:

1. There will be a two-point conversion.
2. There will be at least another player other than Brady and Goff to attempt a pass.
3. Someone will rush for 100 yards.
4. Not only will there be a score in the first 3:30...
5. But both teams will score 2 or more touchdowns in each half.  (That would assure an over.)

I'll have another post below this one with some of the 440+ prop bets at the Westgate.  (I've done a couple other offshore casinos, fair to look at this one.)

As of 3:50 PM PDT (this is an edit in) through VegasInsider:

NE -2.5 is still pretty much the line, though several books are offering juice as high as -120 for New England and even money for the Rams to keep it there.

56.5 is the normal total, but it may move down:  MGM just doinked to 56, as has Atlantis -- and Caesar's has had 56 for a day or so now.

--

But, to my official call:

As I was going through all of this, I became convinced that political realities had played a part in at least half of this Super Bowl.  There was little, if any, indication that the New England Patriots were going to be the AFC representative for what is now their ninth Super Bowl of the last 18.

In fact, many people would probably point that tomorrow is the exact 17th anniversary of the rigged Super Bowl XXXVI, the start of the National Religion pro-Brady/Belichick Republican Era in the NFL.  

... against the Rams.

But as I look at this situation, I can really only think of one overriding angle:  The $5,000,000,000 stadium now 18 months from opening in Los Angeles, and what LA might look like in 18 months.

I can say with absolute clarity (though some of the information I have been given on it is eyes-only) that many of the power brokers in this country (sports, political, entertainment, etc.) do run in the same circles and communicate with each other.  

The angle I was beginning to wonder about is what kind of condition, especially if a (now-second) shutdown causes Food Stamp/Section 8 rioting in the cities, especially LA, that Los Angeles and Inglewood (which is never really safe even under the BEST circumstances!) would be in come the scheduled NFL 2020 opening of the new LA stadium...

And the ONLY way Brady gets #6 here (especially since he has categorically denied all beliefs that he would retire after this game!) is if the NFL believes (through the communications I infer to above) the LA situation might be scuttled due to mass unrest at some point in that 18 months -- and far more than Rodney King-style.

With that caveat in mind (if this goes the other way, start watching the news CLOSELY), my pick is for the team that Bettor X has laid $3.8 million on at +120 in the money line.

My pick:  Rams win, game goes overtime, major controversial call(s) decide the contest.  I'll say 34-31 in overtime.