Wednesday, January 2, 2019

And here's the comparatives I was talking about...

First, a good one for the NFL, but I don't think good enough to justify a remaking of the game for the offense:

Ratings were up 5% this year.  I know points bring ratings, but the fact is I don't think the kind of redefinition we got in the first 12 weeks merits only that kind of an increase, but it is a substantial reversal of the bleeding of the last two years.

  • Points per game.
2018:  46.727 (new NFL record)
2017:  43.4375
2016:  44.933
2015:  45.625
2014:  45.1875
2013:  46.707

The reversal of the last five years toward the defenses was definitely evident to be reversed this year, but the last six weeks does leave a very real question as to whether even the league thinks it has gone too far.  With definite storm clouds hanging over New England (TB12) and Kansas City (backlash on Kareem Hunt), it would appear the Super Bowl COULD head toward a defensive showdown between Chicago and Houston.  

Or it could be a rematch of the 100+ Point Festival (Kansas City vs. the Rams).

I still think Chargers, to build them, over the Saints.

By the way, the record of 47.2 was when there were only 10 teams in the NFL, in 1948!  (Pro Football Reference)
  • Home field advantage
2018:  .602
2017:  .566
2016:  .585
2015:  .545
2014:  .589

Checked around to see if that .602 is a record for a season -- it's certainly better than anything the last four or five...
  • Over-under vs. Vegas at $100 per unit  (Basically, bet $100 on every over and this is how you would last the year)
2018:  -2700
2017:  -3100
2016:  -400
2015:  -2700

The House Always Wins.  I mean, I thought it too:  There was a Twitter poster right as some of the new rules were being announced that posted that betting the Over was like a red carpet to the bank.

We must all be reminded (even me, with my trips to Vegas from time to time) who pays for the lights...

In that vein:
  • Favorites against the number, same methodology
2018:  -3300

One of the greatest cases for the thought that this year could represent a real changing of the guard in the NFL is the fact that the average NFL week this year was 7-9 against the number -- a full 33 games under .500).

2017 would've actually made you about +$700 on it.
2016: -300
2015:  -2500
  • Cliffhangers
2018:  56
2017:  49
2016:  50
2015:  57
2014:  40
2013:  56

So trending back toward the high end as the league wants there to be more dramatic action for ratings.
  • Percentage of competitive games, games where it was within 8 points in the 4th quarter
2018:  67.58
2017:  66.02
2016:  71.1
2015:  67.57
2014:  62.89
2013:  68

Thought this might be a little lower than usual this year - it wasn't.

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