I have to put that there because of a major change that just came up in the last few hours. (Hint: It's in the post below me.)
But, right now, looking at the tea leaves and being a conspiracy theorist about it, here's where I think we are -- right now....
AFC:
The big story is the Kareem Hunt video. If I were in Vegas and had money to lose, Kansas City is a 14.5 point favorite at Oakland, total 55.5 at the Superbook. Well, forget it because it's Oakland, although that would be the ultimate tell.
But any vibes now that Patrick Mahomes is going to be the starter for the AFC in the Super Bowl this year just literally went out the door. I'm not even sure they win the division.
I would've had them a shaky #1, especially with the loss to New England, largely because they are the representative of the NFL of "POINTS!!!!"
That said, here's what I have now.
4. Houston
Yes, Houston. Not really for any real chance to pull it off. They are, however, a very quiet 8-3.
3. Pittsburgh
The real question on them is going to come in the next four weeks, facing three teams on this board: the Chargers this week, the Patriots two weeks after that, and the Saints after that. We'll know where they stand on a Super Bowl run in the rigging after all that.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
And there's only really two scenarios I see in this: Rams-Chargers (which has been mini-coalescing as my gun-to-head pick for a month or so) or the Rams get a scandal like the Hunt video and have to be junked. There's too much money invested in this LA experiment for it to fail, and next year is the stadium opening. (Which see #1 in the NFC.)
1. New England
Yep, it's back to Brady and the boys again, though with a lot less assurance, because of banking on LA by the league.
Others: #5 is probably KC for at least one week. #6 would be Indianapolis.
NFC
I'll do this one the other way around.
1. LA Rams
Probably the centerpiece of this season to this point, and the NFL of "POINTS!!!"
That, and the LA stadium opening next year, has to make them, IMODO, a clear favorite to get the Lombardi Trophy.
One caveat: In both LA teams' cases, this would be PURELY a money/stadium move. And it might represent the first time a major sports league would try to use a championship to manufacture a fan base, instead of using a known fan base to manufacture a championship.
2. Dallas, after Thursday night
I have said for years that, if Jerry Jones got the suspensions under control, the NFL would think about it. Too bad for Dallas (biggest merch base, MAGA owner, etc.) that LA is so set...
The thing is, though, if something happened in LA like the Hunt video which made the Rams not palatable, you would be about out of other options than finally going with Dallas, especially after what they did to New Orleans.
3. New Orleans
There was a reason last night happened, and it's clear to many paying attention something happened.
They had to get New Orleans off the 1-line to get the Rams back up top. The question has to be, though: Why? And why did they get New Orleans to 10-1 to start with?
4. Chicago
Simply because.
Next: #5 probably Seattle.
To answer all your questions about the Saints let's start with all the records that had come up for Brees this season: Glorify him into the spotlight ala Peyton/Brady in their magic record breaking seasons (which we all know ended in dramatic Superbowl losses).
ReplyDeleteThis could pave the door for your LAR superbowl but it could be premature to give the title to LAR. I can get behind what you stated about how this would be the first time a major sports league would build a fanbase out of a championship. The NFL is pompous enough to make that happen, but given the history of what has transpired in the LA area before, i'm not positive all the big suits of the NFL really go with this plan. It seems like too much too fast as well as way too obvious. Eventually people are going to see through their bullshit.
Brees in a superbowl, combined with his huge season, seems like the logical play. They could run with that storyline high and far. Then Brees losing the superbowl in ugly fashion, could be the next logical play. And Brees winning the Superbowl in the '19 or '20 season would go along with the Peyton/Brady circus that we've seen before.
History has a tendency to repeat itself.
The safest bet (and there will be betting) would be to have the Rams and Saints square off in the NFC championship game.
Will talk more as next few weeks unfold.
I'm no longer 100% sure of that, not because you are wrong. The NFL has been going the "obvious rigging" route quite well in the last two years (both OAK wins this year, the entire playoff storyline being the refs and bad calls, the Jesse James "catch" in Pittsburgh, etc.), so I don't think it's a matter of being too obvious.
DeleteI think that, when you say the NFL won't go with this plan, you don't take into account the massive investment the NFL made in getting two teams in Los Angeles -- and the complete failure of either of them to establish a meaningful fan base.
It's one of the reasons (though, again, I will not argue the logic) I strongly disagree with the "Push Brees" championship scenario. What I really see happening is the NFL trying to build a fanbase in LA with the Super Bowl win -- and then, when the new stadium opens, they just open up Hollywood like the Showtime Lakers did and get every star to start showing up at Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park.
We will see. I also believe the Kareem Hunt situation may already have had one ripple effect before we all saw the video yesterday (see Thursday night). That's why I can't agree with what otherwise would be the obvious LAR-NO NFC title game.
Again, not flaming you nor disputing your logic.