Super Farce LI(E): In a quiet Monday, Brian Tuohy and I actually disagree.

Not much on the actual game itself.  It's been another quiet Monday of Super Bowl Week.

So I want to address a point on which Brian and I actually DISagree...

I respect Brian, and he has some very good points and uses a very large portion of what many bettors use (precedent and past records) to back him up.

It appears as if Brian's belief from an article on his website is that we are headed for a New England win, but only by a point or two.

Brian uses the trends of the last ten Super Bowls to indicate that he believes New England won't even cover the 3-point spread that is still, as of this writing, the line in Las Vegas.

In fact, interestingly, the betting appears to be going the OPPOSITE direction that I figured it would.  A Vegasinsider.com article by Micah Roberts today actually appears to indicate that not only is the public betting New England -3 (with the inside action going Atlanta at +3), but the line might actually break -3 toward Atlanta if the inside action allows it -- though the insiders appear to like -3 at even money.

Anyway, to Brian's article:

• Favorites are 4-6 straight up in the last 10 Super Bowls.  Only 1-8-1 against the number.
• Seven of the last ten years, more bets have been taken on the underdog than the favorite.  
• Interestingly, according to the chart provided, almost 80% of the bets last year were on Carolina.  (*CHORTLE!*)
• During the Brady/Belicheat/National Religion run, the Patriots were favored four times to win the Super Bowl.  They covered in none of those cases (two wins, two losses to the Giants).  Two of their four titles (Rams/Seahawks), they were underdogs.
• Atlanta is 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 ATS, scoring 39 points a game in the last six games.

Which is why, AT BEST, Tuohy thinks New England would win by fewer than three points.

EDIT TO ADD Tueday 1/31 8 PM PST:  Nope.  On his season page, Tuohy has actually picked Atlanta to win, basically because he believes the Pats are still in the doghouse.  (He is also staying consistent with his early-season contention that the six teams that were what MSN called the "only teams who could win the Super Bowl" would not win it.)

He may well be right.  He has been more right than I this playoff, especially on his early view on Atlanta with respect to the "space station" stadium which they would like to see open the 2017-18 season on that Thursday night.

The problem, to me, is simple, and is what I see as the main pivot point this season:  Donald Trump.

We all know that Bob Kraft, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are unabashed Trump supporters.

Most of the New England demographic is White, openly in concert with Donald Trump, largely seen as a White Nationalist.

The fact is:  This is the first Super Bowl of this Piece of the Ultimate Shit's era.  As much as I understand that the league would like to see some sort of 38-35 shootout in most cases, people forget that the American government might well have been the catalyst of this entire Brady/Belicheat/National Religion run in the first damned place.

Sorry.  Unless I see a story of similar to the Ezekiel Elliott story from Packers/Cowboys, this still smells like a Patriots rout by as much as the Piece of the Ultimate Shit, his Commissioner Goodell, and his Associate Commissioner Bob Kraft will allow it.

There is, of course, the caveat:  This is the same league which orchestrated a power outage to keep Baltimore-San Francisco close.