Monday, December 26, 2016

2016 Week 16 Score Report

  • Highest scoring week of the year at 51.625 PPG.
  • That makes the season average up to 44.933 PPG.
  • Home teams were 11-5 for the week, 137-98-1 for the year.
  • Not surprisingly, Over went over BIG at 12-3-1.  Now 8 games over .500 for the year, but that's still a slight winner for Vegas.
  • Favorites were 9-7 against the spread and 11-5 straight up.  116-106-7 against the number for the year, 149-79-1 straight up.
  • Interesting stat:  Double-digit favorites have not failed to cover the spread since Week 3.  They are 10-2 on the year, one non-cover each in Week 1 and Week 3.  New England covered 17, and then quite a few more, against the Jets.
  • Team with more penalties was 7-8 on the week, 87-117 for the year.
  • Four Cliffhangers for 47 total.  Six non-competitive games to make 17 out of the 48 in the last three weeks.
Went over basically everything already, but to summarize:

AFC:
  • New England is the #1 with a win or an Oakland loss or tie.  New England has clinched a first-round bye and the AFC East.
  • Oakland is the #2 with a win or tie if New England wins.  If they win and New England loses, they're the #1.  If they lose, Kansas City wins the AFC West and the #2 with a win.  A Kansas City tie or loss clinches the AFC West for Oakland.  Oakland is either the #1, #2, or #5.
  • Pittsburgh has clinched the #3 and the AFC North.
  • Houston has clinched the #4 and the AFC South.
  • Miami is the #5 unless they lose and Kansas City wins.  (Oakland's result then determines the #5 between Oakland and KC.)
  • Kansas City is the #6 unless they win and either Miami or Oakland lose.  Kansas City can be the #2 if they win and Oakland loses, the #5 if they and Oakland win and Miami loses, or the #6 otherwise.
  • All six AFC playoff teams have been determined.
  • Three of the four divisions are done.
  • Only relevant Week 17 games:  NE at Miami (1 Eastern) -- NE gets homefield with at least a tie, Miami clinches the #5 with at least a tie.
  • Oakland at Denver (4 Eastern):  Oakland wins the AFC West and the #2 with at least a tie.  Wins the #1 with a win and a New England loss.
  • Kansas Ciry at San Diego (4 Eastern):  Only relevant in concert with the other 4 Eastern AFC relevant game.  If Oakland wins, then game is irrelevant if Miami at least ties.
NFC: 
  • Dallas is the clinched #1 and NFC East champion.
  • Atlanta clinches the #2 with a win -- has clinched the NFC South.
  • Seattle has clinched the NFC West.  #2 if they win and Atlanta loses, #3 if both they and Atlanta win, #4 if they lose, even if the Sunday nighter goes to a tie.
  • Green Bay and Detroit will decide the NFC North, winner takes all.  Loser is eliminated if Washington won their game earlier. The NFC North winner is the #3 if Seattle loses, #4 if Seattle wins.  A tie means Green Bay is #3 and Seattle the #4.
  • New York Giants are the #5.
  • The #6 is either the Green Bay-Detroit loser if Washington loses or ties (or Detroit if GB-DET ends in a draw), or Washington if they win and the Green Bay-Detroit game goes to a result.  (Tampa Bay still has about seven games to go their way to get a 9-7 over Green Bay on Strength of Victory, we think...)
  • So, barring the stupidities with Strength of Victory, the only relevant games are:
  • New Orleans at Atlanta (4 Eastern):  Atlanta gets the #2 with a win, Seattle enters the fray with a loss.
  • Seattle at San Francisco (4 Eastern):  Even if not relevant for the #2, there's still the difference between the #3 and the #4 to play with.
  • New York Giants at Washington (4 Eastern):  Washington must win to take the #6.
  • Green Bay at Detroit (8:30 Eastern):  Winner takes all, loser eliminated unless Washington does not win.

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