Week 7 Score Report, or: Waiting While The NFL Figures Out What The Fuck It's Doing...

First off, one of the few relevant stats of the year so far:

Nevada sportsbooks won $41.0 million in September, including $36.9 million on football.

— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) October 27, 2016

Oh gee, what a shock.

And you wonder why?  Weeks like this one:

• Last year, Start of Week 8:  Five undefeated teams.  This year:  ZERO!
• Week 7 average:  42.267 PPG.  (Last year:  46.43  Two years ago:  43.67)
• 7 week per game average:  45.36  (Last year:  46.60  Two years ago:  46.273)

Would stand about to reason with the new emphases on defense and the cracking down on personality on the offensive players.  Makes the Seattle kicker shank in overtime even more shocking/laughable.

• Home teams were 9-4-1 this week.  (8-5 last year, 12-3 the year before)
• Home teams are now 61-42-1 for the year.  (.591)  (Last year:  .592  Two years ago:  .624)
• How'd we get this equalization?  Easy!  Home teams are 21-7-1 the last two weeks.

I do get quite the sense of "retrenching" in the NFL right now (and am beginning to wonder, if the Legion of Boom does not get another run, whether we are headed for (Be Good Wittle) Patriots vs. (America's Team) Cowboys).

• Over was 6-9 for the week.  (Last year:  7-7  Two years ago:  6-8)
• Over for the season:   56-50, or about an even proposition once you take off the juice.  (Last year about the same, two years ago was quite a losing proposition for the over.)

Slightly surprising given the downtick in scoring, but maybe Vegas saw this coming.

• Favorites:  6-8-1 against the spread, 7-7-1 straight up.  (Last year:  6-7-1 ATS.)
• For the year, favorites:   44-51-5 ATS, 56-43-1 straight up.  (Last year:  44-53-8 ATS.)

And here's where Vegas is raking it in.  If you bet one unit on every favorite against the number so far this year, you'd be -11 units for the year, almost a unit and a half to the bad every week.

• Team with more penalties was 4-8 this week (with three games with equal penalties).  38-56 now for the year.

Sending a message, NFL?

• Got the triple Cliffhanger with the stupidity in Arizona Sunday night, and a double Last Chance Miss to boot! 
• Double Cliffhanger in San Diego -- tying field goal near the gun, San Diego wins it with one in OT.
• Four Cliffhangers this week.  (Last year's Week 7 had one.)
• For the season:  22/106 are Cliffhangers.  (20.75%)  (Last year:  23/105 (21.9%)  Two years ago:  20/105 (18.87%))

I didn't realize until just now that I didn't do the Week 6 this time around.  I've been sick for a while, so it's not surprising.  That said, the normalization probably has come with the fact that we've had four Cliffhangers each of the last two weeks!)

• With the combination in Arizona, 4 Last Chance Misses last week, 33 for the year.  

That means, rough back of napkin, about half the games this year in the NFL have either featured a lead change in the final two minutes or overtime or a reasoned chance that that happens.

• Only one other game finished within one score for eight total.  67 for the year (63.2% -- almost 2/3 of all the games this year are finishing with a margin <= 8 points.)   (Last year:  55 for 52.38%.  Two years ago:  44 for 41.9%)
• 5 non-competitive games this week (almost 6).  79/106 for the year within one score at some point in the fourth quarter (74.52%) (Last year had 72 such games, two years ago had 68.)

And the continuing ratings slump, from Sports Media Watch:

• Monday night down 14% ratings, 8% viewers (all percentages vs. 2015).  Represents the fifth of the eight MNF games to fail to reach a 7.0 rating, more than the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons put together (which had a total of four).
• FOX has fallen victim to the slump after an uncharacteristic strong start.  Double-digit percent down (13% ratings, 12% viewers) this week for their single game.  Fifth of the last six slots after a good start.
• CBS had the doubleheader, and it wasn't good.  Regional first half was down 11% ratings, 9% viewers.  National second half was down 13% and 11% respectively.
• Thursday night is a mess.  Packers-Bears didn't draw well at all.  Down 17% in ratings, and 19th out of the 22 NFL Network/CBS Thursday night simulcasts.
• The wacko game Sunday night was the one outlier, at least in raw numbers.  Though down 16% ratings and 14% viewers year over year, it did become the first SNF game in three weeks to break a 10 rating.

And it sounds like the narrative is now working for the Cubs...

• I did say that when Eric Karros said on FS1 that the Cubs were good for ratings, it was untrue.  Then, it was.
• Every game since has been gangbusters for FOX.  Games 1 and 2 of the World Series have been bonanzas for the main network because of all the Cub-fan masturbation:  Best World Series ratings since 2009.  Game 1 up 26% ratings, 30% viewers year over year.  Game 2 overnights are up 22% in ratings.
• Same was true for Game 5 and 6 of the NLCS. 
• Prepare to puke, and prepare for Wrigley to burn.