Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Score Update: It's Clear Something Happened To Shake Things Up In Week 11

One of the reasons I'm not falling all over myself about the DEA investigation of several NFL teams after Week 11 games about the painkiller situation is that something happened this week.

And you could see it on the field in the numbers:
  • The Week 11 Scoring Average is almost-certainly the lowest I've seen in years.  The 14 games of Week 11 averaged only 37.57 points per game, a full TEN POINTS PER GAME lower than the season average entering Week 11.
  • That was so low it took the season-long per-game average and dropped it by eight-tenths of a point, after 11 weeks and 161 games.  The average now is 45.888.  That's now a point a game below last year's 46.91 through 11 weeks, and about eight-tenths below the 46.707 for the full season.
How bad did it get?
  • The over-under was 4-10. 80-78-1 for the year -- we'll keep that simple from this point forward.  A couple games actually either were picks or mixed.
  • For the second week of the last three, NO GAMES were decided by a score in the last two minutes and overtime.  This extends the streak of prime-time games not decided by such a cliffhanger to that only 2 out of the 34 national prime-time games this year have been so decided.  Only 14 out of those 34 games were even competitive at some point in the fourth quarter!
  • On the flip side, seven of the nine games competitive in the fourth quarter ended within a score.
  • So, the percentages:  Games decided with a score in the last two minutes and overtime are now down to about 17.39%.  Games within a score at some point in the fourth quarter are down from 68% last year to 62.73% this year.  Games ending within a score are down from 48% last year to 40.37%.
Going a little deeper for a moment:
  • The Packers' 53 points against Philadelphia was more points scored than EVERY OTHER GAME ON THE SCHEDULE, both teams combined, save New England's win over Indianapolis Sunday night.
  • New England's 41 was more than every game except three:  The aforementioned Packer-Eagle blowout, the Monday nighter, and Kansas City's 24-20 win over Seattle.
The other numbers:
  • Home teams were 8-6 on the week.  97-60-1 for the year.
  • Home team was called for more penalties in only 4 of the 14 games.  71/158 for the year.  About 44.9%.
  • Penalties were WAY DOWN.  Only 148 penalties in the 14 games.  Last week's 13 game slate had 166.
  • Team with more penalties was 6-8.  73-77-10 for the year.
  • Points of emphasis:  WEEK TEN:  Team with more of those penalties was 4-3-6.  WEEK ELEVEN:  2-6-6.  For the year:  53-63-54.
  • The 14 winning teams, combined, procured only FIVE accepted Points of Emphasis penalties.

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